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College basketball mailbag: Indiana’s hope, Creighton’s hype, Kentucky’s ceiling

The Athletic


You’ve heard of James Naismith, I’m sure, but have you heard of Nicholas McKay? He was the secretary of the YMCA in Crawfordsville, Indiana, who during the winter of 1892 spent several months with Naismith studying and discussing the exciting new game Naismith had invented the year before. McKay took a copy of Naismith’s 13 rules back home, and on March 16, 1894, he staged the state of Indiana’s first organized game at the Crawfordsville YMCA. Over the next few decades, the game exploded in popularity across Indiana, primarily in high schools, and from there “Basket Ball,” as Naismith first called it, became a staple of the American sporting culture.

The moral of the story: Basketball may have been conceived in Massachusetts, but it was born in Indiana.

As the 2022-23 season approaches the question is, will it be reborn? I realize that that query is an affront to the legions of fans who cheer on Purdue, Butler, Notre Dame, and other colleges across the state, but it has been a while since we’ve heard genuine calls of optimism from fans of the Indiana Hoosiers.

That is about to change. Here is a sampling of questions from hopeful Hoosiers that came in for my summertime college hoops mailbag:

Different circumstance since this is only Coach Woodson’s second season, but this upcoming opportunity for IU reminds me of when Coach Crean had super talent returning in 2016. They have a complete roster and a superstar in Trayce Jackson-Davis. I’m biased as an IU alum, but I do think this team has a legit shot at a Final Four. What is your prediction? — Jason A.

What is Indiana’s ceiling? — Lance B.

Thoughts on the Hoosiers? Does TJD make the leap he needs to be a threat outside of the paint? And is it enough to get a few tourney wins? — Nick M.

Which sophomore are you projecting to have a breakout season and why is it Tamar Bates? — Alexander B.

Hoop springs eternal in the heartland, but Indiana fans do have extra reason to look forward to the 2022-23 campaign. The biggest, of course, is the decision by 6-9 senior forward Trayce Jackson-Davis to return for his senior year. When TJD got to Bloomington, most people didn’t think he would stick around for three years, let alone four, but his presence makes the Hoosiers the consensus Big Ten favorite. Of course, the reason Jackson-Davis is still in college is because his skill set does not translate well to the NBA. (He has never made a 3-pointer in college.) But he is an All-American caliber college center, and the fact that he hails from nearby Greenwood lends dramatic texture to the script.

With Jackson-Davis in the fold, Indiana has four starters returning from the team that won its First Four game over Wyoming and then got blitzed by Saint Mary’s in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Given the excitement that is brewing, it would be a disappointment if this team failed to reach the second weekend. Which is ironic, because the aforementioned Tom Crean made the Sweet 16 three times in five years, but the school fired him the next year after went from No. 3 in the country to out of the Big Dance. A major factor in that demise was the season-ending knee injury that OG Anunoby suffered in mid-January. That is an unsettling reminder that even the most hopeful of seasons can go awry with some bad luck.

For a deep dive on the Hoosiers, I highly recommend Eamonn Brennan’s breakdown of the roster. From my vantage point, I have two main concerns. The first is point guard play. Woodson brought in Pitt transfer Xavier Johnson last season, and while he showed flashes of excellence, Johnson was wholly unreliable as a leader. He did not inspire confidence on this front when he was arrested for reckless driving in April. The closest thing Indiana had to a backup was Rob Phinisee, but he was more of a natural scorer, and now he has graduated. Sophomore Khristian Lander also never panned out and transferred to Western Kentucky. The team is pinning its hopes on 6-6 freshman Jalen Hood-Schifino, who is currently attending Chris Paul’s Elite Guard Camp in Los Angeles. Either way, the Hoosiers need to be better at this position because it’s hard to see them being a much better 3-point shooting team. They shot a paltry 31.9 percent in league games last season, which was second-worst in the Big Ten.

My larger concern is whether the Hoosiers are ready for all this hope. It’s not so much about buying into their rankings and “press clippings” (young kids ask your folks what those are) so much as the greater attention they will get from opponents. This season Indiana will be the circle-your-calendar game in the Big Ten. This is an older team, so they should be able to handle it, but it’s also the kind of thing you can only learn to do by going through it. So stay tuned.

As for Bates, I’d love to tell Alexander that he’s going to have a breakout season, but I’m not banking on it. The 6-4 guard from Kansas City was highly regarded coming out of high school, but he only averaged 3.9 points in 14.5 minutes, and there are a lot of guys, both returning and incoming, vying for time on the wing. If Bates does break out, the Hoosiers will be even better than a lot of people thought. And as you can tell, a lot of people already think this team is going to be very good.

Have you bought into next year’s Creighton hype? — Jonathan K.

I have Creighton at No. 11 in my latest Top 25 rankings, so the short answer is yes. I’m guessing that’s a little lower than many of the other experts, which means the Bluejays will probably start the 2022-23 campaign with their highest ranking in school history. (They started out 11th two years ago.)

Like everyone else, I loved the addition of South Dakota transfer Baylor Scheierman, not only because of his scoring pop (the 6-6 senior averaged 16.2 points per game on 46.9 percent 3-point shooting) but because he is 21 years old and entering his fourth college season. Last season, the Jays were ranked 310th in the country in experience per KenPom. That’s why they started out 5-5 in the Big East before winning 10 of their last 14, including a first-round victory over San Diego State in the NCAA Tournament.

Everyone talks about the perils of being young, but that can turn out to be a major plus if a team can keep those youngsters in the fold. Two starters graduated, but only one player, little-used reserve Modestas Kancleris, transferred out. That means Scheierman is coming to a program that was already returning five of its top eight scorers.

Much like with Indiana, I do have concerns about whether these players are ready for this kind of preseason hype. We’ll find out Thanksgiving week when Creighton plays in the Maui Invitational, but this group offered a bellwether when it trailed eventual champ Kansas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament by one point with a minute to play. It was playing without its starting point guard, 6-foot Ryan Nembhard, the Big East’s rookie of the year, and starting center, 7-1 sophomore Ryan Kalkbrenner, who injured his knee in the win over San Diego State. As you might recall, the NCAA Tournament turned out pretty well for the Jayhawks. This team has talent and toughness, and now it has a lot more experience entering the season. I’m buying.


Daimion Collins is going into his sophomore season with breakout potential. (Jordan Prather / USA Today)

I don’t normally take much stock in foreign preseason games, and my expectations for Kentucky were high going into their trip to the Bahamas. But Illinois State transfer Antonio Reeves, sophomore Daimion Collins, and freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston were all WAY better than I expected. Is it too early to think Kentucky’s ceiling may actually be higher than we already thought (pretty damn high)? — Zach E.

My first answer to just about every question about Kentucky is to read everything Kyle Tucker writes. That’s what I do! My second answer in this instance is that it’s hard to say that Kentucky’s ceiling is higher than I thought considering I ranked the Wildcats as my No. 1 team in my latest Top 25. I may be the only so-called expert who has the Cats that high. Remember that next April.

As for the Bahamas trip, Zach is right to be skeptical. The Cats didn’t exactly get tested over there, winning their four games by an average of 50 points. That said, my main takeaway is that their 3-point shooting, which was terrible last season, looked terrific. Much of that was because of Reeves, the 6-4 senior transfer from Illinois State who drilled 51.9 percent in the four games (he shot 39 percent last season), but two incoming freshmen, Wallace and Livingston, shot a combined 12 of 25. The glaring exception, alas, was 5-9 senior point guard Sahvir Wheeler, who was 0 of 9 from behind the arc. Considering the level of competition, that is a terrible sign. I know Wheeler is super quick, but unless he becomes a more reliable outside shooter (he made 30.8 percent last season), I find it hard to envision him playing as many minutes as he did last season. You can’t beat good teams – including speedy, tough, No. 15 seeds – if your point guard can’t make shots.

Beyond that, I know BBN went gaga over Collins’ skywalking antics, but I was more impressed with the maturity demonstrated by 6-9 senior forward Jacob Toppin. He led the team in minutes (24.5 per game), ranked second in scoring (16.8) and third in rebounding (5.5). Toppin has looked overmatched and disengaged during his two seasons in Lexington following his transfer from Rhode Island, but if this indicates a major step forward is coming, then the Cats are going to be in great shape.

Will Rutgers return to the Dance this year? — Evan G.

Steve Pikiell is working real hard on it, Evan. During a time of year when most humanoids should be enjoying what remains of their summer, I found Pikiell laboring at his office desk this week when I reached out to ask about the Scarlet Knights. His message reads like a takeoff from the old “Six Million Dollar Man” show opener: Deeper, stronger, faster. “You know what, I like my team,” he said. “We’ll be a way better defensive and rebounding team because I’ll be playing more guys. We’ll be bigger at every position, and we’re gonna play faster.”

For starters, I really like teams that have a clear, three-man nucleus. Pikiell pointed out that he has arguably the best dunking center in the Big Ten (6-11 junior Cliff Omoruyi), the best perimeter defender in the Big Ten (6-7 super senior Caleb McConnell) and the leading returning assist guy in the Big Ten (6-6 senior Paul Mulcahy). The team has 65 percent of its minutes returning – second only to Indiana in the league – and added 6-3 freshman Derek Simpson, whom Pikiell called “probably the best guard we’ve brought in here” as well as 6-4 senior guard Cam Spencer, who averaged 18.9 points per game last season for Loyola (Md.).

What’s most impressive is that Rutgers was among the very few schools that did not lose a single player to the transfer portal. When I asked Pikiell how he managed to pull that off, he replied, “I think they all feel valued. And when you lose guys that played a lot of minutes, that means there are minutes available.” He was referring to Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr., who both averaged more than 34 minutes last season. With lots of players ready to step in and develop, Rutgers will be a lot deeper than it was last season, when it ranked 342nd in the country in bench minutes, per KenPom.

I asked Pikiell which of the reserves is most likely to be a featured performer this season. Before I could finish the question he answered, “Mawot Mag.” The 6-7 junior from Australia averaged 2.9 points in 11.7 minutes last season, but he’ll have a great chance to claim Harper’s spot on the wing. Pikiell also promised that Omoruyi has been working on his offensive range and “he’s gonna shoot threes this year,” but I’ll believe that when I see it. (Omoruyi shot 2 of 8 from behind the arc in his first two seasons.)

In the end, Rutgers was very fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament last year. The Scarlet Knights lost in double overtime to Notre Dame in the First Four, but it was still the second straight NCAA Tournament for a program that previously hadn’t been there since 1991. (It would have been three in a row had the 2020 tourney not been canceled.) The Big Ten is not going to be nearly as strong next season, particularly at the top, so this team should have a great chance to make a third straight tourney. If they don’t, it won’t be because Pikiell has been spending too much time at the beach.

Can Boston College win it all this year? — Lucas C.

Love the summertime snark! Well played Lucas C.!

The good news is, the Eagles have nowhere to go but up under second-year coach Earl Grant after they finished tied for 11th in the ACC with a 6-14 record (13-20 overall). The bad news is, we’ve been saying that for a long time. Here’s a fun question: If Grant went to seven NCAA Tournaments in the next nine years, took the Eagles to a Sweet 16 and led them into the top 10 of the AP poll’s in three of those seasons, would you say he did a good job? Well, that’s exactly the record Al Skinner had before BC showed him the door in 2010. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict that Boston College won’t “win it all” next year. But I do think the squad has a chance to be better. The Eagles are returning five of their top seven players, including the promising backcourt duo of 6-3 senior Makai Ashton-Langford and 6-2 sophomore Jaeden Zackery, who combined for 22.4 points and 6.1 assists and were both ranked in the top 10 of the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio. Quinten Post, a 7-foot senior center, ended the season on a high note by being named to the ACC’s All-Tournament team after averaging 14.0 points and 5.0 rebounds in three games. Grant signed four freshmen, two of whom are ranked in the top 130 nationally in the 247Sports Composite, and added a transfer in 6-4 junior guard Mason Madsen, who averaged 3.9 points in 11.6 minutes off the bench at Cincinnati.

The top priority for the Eagles is their anemic offense. They were ranked dead last in the ACC in 3-point shooting (28.4) and effective field goal percentage (46.3). I appreciate my snarky friend setting the bar so high, but let’s start with seeing if this team can make a few more buckets and get to .500 in the ACC and then see where this thing goes.

(Top photo of Creighton’s Ryan Nembhard: Brad Mills / USA Today)





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