Of all the things we ask our experts to predict before the season, probably none is harder than coach of the year. That award is often given to a coach whose team far exceeded preseason expectations, meaning you not only need to identify which teams will surprise but which coaches will get credit for it. Last preseason, for example, hardly anybody would have considered Providence’s Ed Cooley as a prime candidate, but he won the Naismith coach of the year award. There’s also usually a bias toward first-time head coaches; Tommy Lloyd won AP coach of the year honors in his first year helming Arizona.
That’s not always the case. Gonzaga’s Mark Few won the Naismith award in 2020-21. (Michigan’s Juwan Howard took home the AP trophy that same season.) Still, we don’t shy away from tough challenges here; our 17-member panel of experts was up to the task.
Coach of the Year?
| Coach | Team | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Kelvin Sampson |
5 |
|
|
Hubert Davis |
2 |
|
|
Kyle Neptune |
2 |
|
|
Chris Beard |
1 |
|
|
Jamie Dixon |
1 |
|
|
Scott Drew |
1 |
|
|
Anthony Grant |
1 |
|
|
Thad Matta |
1 |
|
|
Greg McDermott |
1 |
|
|
Jon Scheyer |
1 |
|
|
Mike Woodson |
1 |
Now let’s hear some of our experts’ rationales:
Kelvin Sampson, Houston
No one ever gets this pick right, and yet we spend the most time over-thinking who will have that breakthrough, one way or another, that grabs voters’ attention. Taking the easy way out with the guy who probably wins the award if the vote happened after last year’s NCAA Tournament, a coach who gets his due for putting a dominant squad together for 2022-23. — Brian Hamilton
Houston will enter the tournament with a gaudy record — going undefeated is a possibility — and go on another deep tourney run. It’s becoming an annual tradition. — CJ Moore
If you need a coach to win one singular game, Sampson is right there at the top of the list. But this season, he also has the talent and depth needed for the Cougars to make a realistic national title run. — Brendan Marks
The fun thing is you can say this every preseason and pretty much always end up being right. — Eamonn Brennan
Hubert Davis, UNC
I know the Tar Heels are the preseason No. 1, and this is an award that tends to go to a coach who far exceeds preseason expectations. But 1) he did that last year with the surprise run to the title game as a No. 8 seed, which occurred too late for him to win these types of awards; and 2) it’s always difficult to coach a team with a bullseye on its back. — Nicole Auerbach
Kyle Neptune, Villanova
Jay Wright left the pieces in place for his successor to keep Villanova humming right along. — Austin Meek
That’s presuming Justin Moore comes back strong and Cameron Whitmore lives up to his billing, which will give Villanova a chance to outperform modest — by program standards — expectations. — Joe Rexrode
Jamie Dixon, TCU
The Horned Frogs were 29 games below .500 in the four years before Dixon took over. They won 24 games his first season, got back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 20 years his second season and won a tournament game for the first time in 35 years last March — Year 6 for Dixon — when they took No. 1 seed Arizona to the brink in the second round. Now they’re a preseason top-15 team with star power (Mike Miles) and big dreams. — Kyle Tucker
Scott Drew, Baylor
Everyone expects Baylor to be good, but I have them as my No. 2 team entering the season, and the coach of the year award goes to a great team just as often as it goes to the coach of the team that “exceeds expectations.” Somehow, despite pulling off the best program rehabilitation job possibly in college basketball history, Drew has never won the national coach of the year award. He’s past due. — Sam Vecenie
Anthony Grant, Dayton
To go from having 2020 dreams so brutally erased, to bringing Dayton all the way back to national prominence will make Grant as deserving as anyone. — Brendan Quinn
Thad Matta, Butler
I’m going with the “coach in new place posts surprisingly good results” train of thought here. Matta is certainly not new to college basketball but has been out of coaching since 2017. Butler can only go up from last year’s 14-win crater, and if Matta can raise the Bulldogs up, that will be a powerful story. Will that happen? No idea! – Brian Bennett
Greg McDermott, Creighton
Normally, Villanova is the head of the class in the Big East, but the Wildcats are banged up and going through a coaching change, which opens the door for McDermott and his Bluejays to put together a historic season. The addition of Baylor Scheierman, the senior sharp-shooter from South Dakota State, was the perfect complement to the young but talented roster that was going to be the conference favorite even before Scheierman signed on. — Seth Davis
Jon Scheyer, Duke
Let’s go all in on the storybook season with Jon Scheyer picking up a major award (and it will be worth more than a leg lamp). — Scott Dochterman
(Our complete panel of experts: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Eamonn Brennan, Seth Davis, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Hugh Kellenberger, Brendan Marks, Austin Meek, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, Sam Vecenie and Justin Williams.)
Previous predictions:
Mid-major that can make a March run
Most entertaining player in the country
Most compelling game of 2022-23
First coaching change
Surprise team
Disappointing team
(Photo of Kelvin Sampson: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)
