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Who will be this year’s Iowa State? Or Wake Forest?

And by that, we mean, which team will take us all by surprise in 2022-23 — in a good way. Iowa State went from 2-22 in 2020-21 to 22 wins and the Sweet 16 last season. While Wake Forest narrowly missed March Madness, the Demon Deacons still improved from six wins to 25.

Some team or teams are almost guaranteed to come out of nowhere this season. The trick is in finding them. That’s the task we gave to our 17-member expert panel for today’s topic. As you can see by the results, there was no consensus pick, and 15 different teams received at least one vote. Who, if anyone, will be right?

Now let’s hear our experts’ rationales:

Miami

Isaiah Wong is one of the more underrated players in the country, even though he was critical to Miami’s Elite Eight run last season. With him back, and the Hurricanes adding two of the better transfers in the country — All-Big 12 guard Nijel Pack, and Sun Belt Player of the Year Norchad Omier — noted offensive guru Jim Larrañaga has plenty of pieces to work with. — Brendan Marks

There were flashes of incredible potential last year, often in the form of some crazy run led by Isaiah Wong, and it came together in the unexpected Elite Eight run. This year’s team lost two of its best players from that run, but it’s also adding arguably the top available transfer in Nijel Pack. — Nicole Auerbach

Texas A&M

If you review the trajectory of Buzz Williams’ programs, and in particular his work at Virginia Tech, you know we have arrived at the point where the rebuilding job stops being plucky and starts getting real. Talent-wise, the Aggies had no business nearly plowing their way into the field a year ago; this time around they’ll be plain good. — Eamonn Brennan

It’s easy to poke fun at Buzz Williams for his rant against the NCAA Tournament selection process when his Aggies, who lost eight straight in the middle of the season, didn’t make the field last year. But the bulk of that team, which rallied to win 12 of its final 15 games and make both the SEC and NIT championship games, is back with something to prove. I think they make the tournament and advance. — Kyle Tucker

Cincinnati

The Bearcats stumbled down the stretch last season but brought back several standouts (David DeJulius, Mika Adams-Woods and Jeremiah Davenport) and then added some interesting transfers (Landers Nolley, Rob Phinisee). Plus the American may be just OK after Houston, giving Wes Miller a chance to go on a run. — Hugh Kellenberger

Dayton

Dayton. There were no winners when COVID shut down the 2020 postseason, but it was a particularly raw deal for a Dayton team that went 29-2 and was a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. After a couple more under-the-radar seasons, Dayton reminds everyone just how good that program was and can be again. — Justin Williams

Florida State

I’m surprised I don’t see more of the Seminoles in preseason top-25 lists. Their sophomore class led by Matthew Cleveland and Jalen Warley is incredibly talented, and now has experience. Plus, they have done a great job of finding Leonard Hamilton-style guys in the transfer portal the last two years such as Cam’Ron Fletcher, Jaylan Gainey and Darin Green. This roster fits together, and should compete for a top-three spot in the ACC. — Sam Vecenie

Illinois

I’ve got Illinois winning the Big Ten, which may sound wild with Kofi Cockburn and the team’s starting backcourt moving on, but Skyy Clark leads a loaded group of newcomers that includes Baylor transfer Matthew Mayer. Also, the Big Ten isn’t great. — Joe Rexrode

LSU

Considering Matt McMahon began his tenure with zero scholarship players and the stank of Will Wade’s tenure still hanging low, I don’t think anyone envisioned any plausible success in Year 1. But don’t sleep on the Tigers. Juice Hill and KJ Williams are most definitely SEC-starter caliber players and McMahon can flat-out coach. No, the Tigers won’t compete to win the SEC, but they’ll far exceed expectations. Don’t be surprised if they dance. — Brendan Quinn

Ole Miss

The Rebels finished 13-19 last year, their worst record under Kermit Davis, but it should be noted that their two leading scorers missed significant time due to injury. They bring back five of their six top scorers from a year ago, while adding the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year in Theo Akwuba and MAC Defensive Player of the Year Josh Mballa. Not to mention a few freshmen that should make an impact. — Tobias Bass

Purdue

Overlook Purdue and Matt Painter at your own discretion. He has height (as usual) and a quality backcourt. The Boilers should be right there with Indiana in the Big Ten race. — Scott Dochterman

TCU

Last year was the best season of Jamie Dixon’s tenure at TCU, as the Horned Frogs made the NCAA Tournament and took No. 1 seed Arizona to overtime in the second round. With guard Mike Miles returning, this looks like a legitimate Sweet 16 contender. — Austin Meek

Tulane

Um, no offense to some of my fellow voters, but let’s go a little bolder than picking a team that made the Elite Eight last year or some teams that are already ranked, shall we? The Green Wave bring almost everybody back off a young team that showed promise last season, including star guard Jalen Cook, who certainly lives up to his last name. No one’s saying Tulane is going to the Final Four, but a return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995 is certainly possible. And maybe we’ll get more delightful March moments from coach Ron Hunter. — Brian Bennett

USC

The Trojans are in a bit of a transition year, but Andy Enfield has firmly established himself as a program builder of the highest order. He had a roster led by a veteran backcourt of Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson, three top 50 freshmen (including McDonald’s All-American forward Kijani Wright), and he just added an intriguing international prospect in 7-0 freshman center Iaroslav Niagu. The Pac 12 will be strong at the top again but not very deep, so the Trojans are likely to be in the top tier, and thus on the fringes of the top 25 for most of the season. — Seth Davis

Virginia

Not saying the Cavaliers will be Final Four good but they will be factor-in-the-ACC good. Tony Bennett returns five of his top starters, and thanks to a bumper crop of freshmen, actually has depth again. A “bad” Virginia team still finished 21-14, 10-8 in the ACC and won two games in the NIT. — Dana O’Neil

Wyoming

Wyoming will be a top-20 team by the flip of the calendar and stay there all year. Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike are two of the toughest covers in the country, and Jeff Linder deepened his rotation with a trio of Pac-12 transfers. — CJ Moore

Xavier

Say what you will about Sean Miller, but the guy is one of the premier college basketball minds extant. The Musketeers will be experience-laden, and old tends to win in this sport. Maybe there’s not an All-American on the roster, but the school went all-in for Miller for a reason. He could be the difference in player development – between so-so results and attention-grabbing contention, sooner than later. — Brian Hamilton

(Our complete panel of experts: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Eamonn Brennan, Seth Davis, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Hugh Kellenberger, Brendan Marks, Austin Meek, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, Sam Vecenie and Justin Williams.)

Previous predictions:

Mid-major that can make a March run

Most entertaining player in the country

Most compelling game of 2022-23

First coaching change

(Photo of Tyrece Radford: Kevin Langley / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)