It happens seemingly every year. A team (or sometime teams) begins the year with lots of buzz and maybe even a top 10 preseason ranking. And then it fails to come anywhere near those expectations.
The best examples of this last year? Michigan was ranked sixth in the first AP Top 25 and finished the regular season 17-13 (though the Wolverines did rebound to make the Sweet 16). UCLA didn’t have a bad season by any reasonable measurement, but the Bruins also didn’t live up to their preseason No. 2 ranking last year. And that’s before we even get to some other teams that began last season in the Top 25, like Oregon, Florida State and Maryland, all of whom missed the tournament.
So what will be the team that disappoints us this season? That’s what we asked our 17-member expert panel for today’s prediction topic. Nearly a quarter of our voters say don’t believe the hype on one program in particular.
Now let’s hear our experts’ rationales:
Indiana
Hoosiers fans are starving so badly for a winner that I fear this team is bound to disappoint them. I love Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Race Thompson is one of my favorite Glue Guys, but I do not trust Xavier Johnson as a full-time point guard, and the Big Ten has plenty of good teams. If the Hoosiers lose momentum or suffer an injury or two, they could go downhill in a hurry. — Seth Davis
Jackson-Davis is incredible, and there is real talent around him, but is Indiana — the preseason Big Ten title pick — really *that* much better than the team that barely made the tournament last year? You’d like to see the Hoosiers prove they can make outside shots first, right? Just me? — Eamonn Brennan
The preseason buzz is understandable, but it feels like a big bet on a team that went 9-11 in the Big Ten last year. — Austin Meek
The talent and individual pieces are there, but I’m not as confident (at least not yet) in how a blend of two tenures will perform on the floor. — Justin Williams
Kansas
I’m picking Kansas here, but only by its own absolutely elite standards. This roster has less offensive talent than I can remember any Bill Self roster possessing. With Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar, they’re going to be absolutely miserable to play and initiate offense against, but I’m worried about where the points come from. I see more of a top-20 team as opposed to the top-five team they’re slated as in the preseason. I see this being more like 2019 or 2021. — Sam Vecenie
Kansas fans can’t get too disappointed after Self finally got that second championship, but is that really a top-five team? It’s hard to know for sure until seeing another loaded freshman class perform at this level, but I think a bit of a down year lies ahead. Good thing it’s a football school. — Joe Rexrode
It’s easy to have the remaining champs in the top five, but what about the four key pieces they lost/lack of experience? They are talented, but I’m not sure they are a top-two team in the loaded Big 12. — Tobias Bass
North Carolina
Yes, the Tar Heels will be good. It’s hard not to be, when you bring back this much production. But they’ve established a championship-or-bust bar and, well, the run to the title game last April wasn’t exactly expected or favored to occur in the first place, with just about the same characters. — Brian Hamilton
North Carolina, but I must explain myself. The Tar Heels remind me very much of UCLA from a year ago, with a hot run in the NCAA Tournament loading up the bandwagon. Everyone seemed to forget that the Bruins were in the First Four. Everyone seems to forget the Tar Heels were an 8-seed that lost to Pitt in the regular season, that lost to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament, and at one point was on the outside looking in for a NCAA tourney bid. Carolina got better, no question, but the expectations around this team right now are so high — in all of Hubert Davis’ second season — that all they can do is win it all, or disappoint. — Dana O’ Neil
It seems reasonable to wonder whether we’re overrating a team that was 18-8 with losses by 17, 20, 22, 28 and 29 points before catching fire in late February and winning 11 of 12 games on its way to a stunning national championship game appearance. I also don’t think it’s safe to assume Northwestern transfer Pete Nance is a one-for-one replacement for flamethrower Brady Manek. Preseason No. 1 means anything but a championship is a disappointment. — Kyle Tucker
Creighton
Indiana was the team I immediately thought about for this, but that seems almost too obvious (and too cruel to a beaten-down fan base). So I’m going to take a flier on Creighton here. The Bluejays will be a good team, no question. But are we so sure they’re ready to go from last season’s No. 50 finish in KenPom to a bona fide top 10 outfit? Maybe Baylor Scheierman is just so good that he alone will elevate the No. 112 offense last season and I’ll look silly. But that’s still a lot to ask, and anything less than a Big East title would feel like a letdown. — Brian Bennett
Duke
Based on preseason rankings, it’s Duke. It has nothing to do with Jon Scheyer or the absence of Coach K. It’s more about how not every top recruiting class should be treated equally. The Blue Devils are best in this modern era when they have a one-and-one lottery pick or two. I’m not sure they have one. This group is talented but needs time.
— CJ Moore
Gonzaga
It’s all relative, but Gonzaga has the profile of a 3- or 4-seed to me. Given where expectations have been for the program, that would count as at least mildly disappointing. — Hugh Kellenberger
Houston
Love the way the Cougars play. Love the way Kelvin Sampson coaches. Love Jamal Shead and Marcus Sasser. However, losing four of five top starters, and hoping Sasser and Tramon Mark stay healthy, and leaning on multiple unproven pieces … and still carrying Final Four expectations? Seems like a recipe for disappointment to me. — Brendan Quinn
Illinois
Illinois lost a ton of players from a really good team that didn’t get as far as it should have. The Illini will compete, but the Big Ten will be tougher from 3-10 than any other league. — Scott Dochterman
Texas
There’s a ton of individual talent on this roster, a lot to like. But how is it going to fit together? How will the team jell? In a league like the Big 12 that’s had so many elite top teams, it’s hard to be the one figuring stuff out. — Nicole Auerbach
Villanova
Losing a Hall of Fame coach is tough. Couple that with Justin Moore’s lingering Achilles injury and top freshman Cam Whitmore’s thumb injury, and it’s almost inevitable the Wildcats take a step (or several) back. — Brendan Marks
(Our complete panel of experts: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Eamonn Brennan, Seth Davis, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Hugh Kellenberger, Brendan Marks, Austin Meek, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, Sam Vecenie and Justin Williams.)
Previous predictions:
Mid-major that can make a March run
Most entertaining player in the country
Most compelling game of 2022-23
First coaching change
Surprise team
(Photo of Trayce Jackson-Davis: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)
