One of the subplots of the highly entertaining 2021-22 college basketball season was the race between three stud freshmen to be both the No. 1 NBA Draft pick and the national freshman of the year. Auburn’s Jabari Smith ended up taking home most of the awards, while Duke’s Paolo Banchero went first in the draft. Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren was the No. 2 pick and joined the others on several All-America teams.
Will we have a similar three-man race among college rookies this season? Coincidentally, only three players received votes from our 17-member expert panel when we asked them to predict the 2022-23 freshman of the year. Then again, preseason injuries to Duke’s Dariq Whitehead (foot) and Villanova’s Cam Whitmore (thumb) might have had something to do with that.
Here are those three vote-getters who should become household names soon enough, led by a high-flying Hog:
Freshman of the year?
| Player | Team | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Nick Smith Jr. |
10 |
|
|
Keyonte George |
5 |
|
|
Dereck Lively II |
2 |
And now, let’s hear a sampling of our experts’ rationales:
This award is a combination of ability and opportunity, and Smith will put plenty of both on display in Fayetteville this winter. The 6-foot-5 combo guard from Little Rock is an elite athlete and a first-rate bucket getter who can score at all three levels, finish on the break, and spend some time at point guard if need be. Eric Musselman’s pro-style, pick-and-roll heavy, up-tempo system is perfectly tailored to Smith’s skill set. — Seth Davis
He’s going to be the first guy not named Victor Webanyama or Scoot Henderson picked in the 2023 NBA Draft. He’s a gifted scoring guard and will be one of the must-watching players in college basketball. — Kyle Tucker
Musselman is very good at getting new players to jell together in a short period of time. This year, one of those new players is the best freshman guard in the country. — Eamonn Brennan
The calculus here is finding the ultra-talented player who doesn’t join a roster overloaded with established production. Smith, the No. 3 prospect in the Class of 2022, probably assumes a primary role immediately, even with a raft of transfers arriving in Fayetteville. But it is a really, really close call for me with Baylor’s Keyonte George, who’s in a similar spot. — Brian Hamilton
Before Cam Whitmore’s injury, he would have been my pick. But with that happening, let’s go with Smith, one of the best tough shot-makers to enter college hoops in a while. He’ll be the go-to guy for a top-10 Arkansas team who Musselman should be able to get the most out of. — Sam Vecenie
A dynamic guard with a deep bag of tricks playing in a system that will use all of ’em. What’s not to like? — Brendan Quinn
GO DEEPER
Film room: Why Nick Smith looks like he’ll be an immediate star for Arkansas
Keyonte George, Baylor
Baylor could very well be the best team in the Big 12, and if Scott Drew’s team is going to live up to that billing, George will take them there. — Dana O’Neil
He is the best scorer in the class and will go on some insane scoring binges. — CJ Moore
A physical dynamic guard that can score with the best of them. George should be a rock star in Drew’s system. – Tobias Bass
You can’t really go wrong with Smith, or Whitmore, or Whitehead, or even Alabama’s Brandon Miller, for that matter. But I fell in love with George’s smooth offensive skills and fundamental play on the prep circuit, and I think he can be ultra-efficient in Drew’s guard-friendly offense. This award might come down to which elite frosh plays better in the Arkansas-Baylor game on Jan. 28. — Brian Bennett
GO DEEPER
Baylor’s new faces, led by Keyonte George, give Bears reason to have March dreams
Lively might not put up astronomical numbers this year, but he’ll have the biggest impact of any freshman. — Scott Dochterman
The stage — and the gifted, 7-1 frame — make him a strong bet. — Joe Rexrode
GO DEEPER
How Duke’s Dariq Whitehead, Derek Lively II fit into Jon Scheyer’s vision
(Our complete panel of experts: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Eamonn Brennan, Seth Davis, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Hugh Kellenberger, Brendan Marks, Austin Meek, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, Sam Vecenie and Justin Williams.)
Previous predictions:
Mid-major that can make a March run
Most entertaining player in the country
Most compelling game of 2022-23
First coaching change
Surprise team
Disappointing team
Coach of the year
(Photo of Nick Smith Jr.: Courtesy Arkansas Athletics)
