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The preseason is a time of optimism, as all college basketball fans can at least dream of their team going on a magical run six months from now. But in some places, there is also a looming sense of dread.

Money has never been bigger in college sports, and with that comes pressure to win — immediately. As we’ve seen in college football this season, athletic directors are not afraid to pull the trigger on a struggling coach no matter how early it may seem.

Several men’s college basketball coaches enter 2022-23 on the hot seat. And while it brings us no joy to speculate on potential firings, it’s also part of the sport. So today our 17-person panel of experts tackles the question of which school will be first to make a coaching change this season. (Note: One member of our panel declined to vote on this topic).

Now let’s hear some of our experts’ rationales:

Nebraska

It already happened once this year in Lincoln. Why not twice? Not only is Nebraska set to finish 13th or 14th in the Big Ten, but prior to Christmas, the schedule offers likely losses at St. John’s (where Mike Anderson is trying to remain employed), then two or three potential losses at the ESPN Events Invitational, then road games at Creighton and Indiana, then a likely home loss to Purdue, then a game at Kansas State. Not good. It could be a Turgeon-esque scene at Nebraska. — Brendan Quinn

Fred Hoiberg’s secret sauce at Iowa State was being the transfer king. Before everyone in America could easily build its roster that way. I’m not sure he ever wanted to be back coaching college basketball, and it kinda looks like it. — Kyle Tucker

The athletic director who hired him is no longer there, and in his place is Trev Alberts, who aggressively moved quickly on Scott Frost. Nebraska, on paper, has the least talented team in the Big Ten this year, mixed with an absolute monster schedule to start the season. Nine of the team’s scheduled first 13 games are against KenPom top-80 teams, including seven against top-40 teams. It’s not impossible the Cornhuskers are staring at a 5-10 mark around the new year. — Sam Vecenie

Just like football. Alberts already restructured Hoiberg’s contract, the first step in this type of process, last season and has shown a willingness to make a midseason change if it’s not working. — Nicole Auerbach

Georgetown

Not sure anyone will pull the rug out quite like college football has this season, but I’m not sure if the Georgetown/Patrick Ewing experiment will go beyond this season. My hunch is that if it doesn’t go well, Ewing will step aside and save his alma mater the awkward need to fire their best player. Ewing is a proud man, but he’s also a loyal Hoya. My guess is if things don’t go well, he’ll bow out gracefully. — Dana O’Neil

Outside of one magical week in March in 2021, Ewing hasn’t done much at his alma mater. The Hoyas went winless last year in the Big East and are picked to finish 10th this year. — CJ Moore

The first thought was Fred Hoiberg, until I checked the details of his buyout, which … are not favorable to Nebraska, let’s say. Yow. What about Patrick Ewing? It is hard to fathom Georgetown brass cutting their legend loose midseason, but after a close-run decision to retain him last spring, if the Hoyas have a disastrous start, you could maybe see all sides deciding things have actually, fully run their course. — Eamonn Brennan

California

Had to scroll to the bottom rungs of The Athletic’s men’s college hoops Coaching Tiers for this one. Even then, I had a hard time imagining midseason changes for a lot of the in-danger names. Nebraska’s schedule is just difficult enough to put Hoiberg in a bad spot early, but I also can’t see Alberts axing a football coach and a men’s basketball coach mid-year, in the same year. Neither do I think Cal administrators care enough to get a head start on a new hire. But it’s probably not going to happen for Mark Fox, and even if the nonconference results don’t force the athletic department’s hands, one would assume it won’t take long after the Pac-12 tournament to move on. — Brian Hamilton

It’s Cal, and Shantay Legans takes over next year. — Tobias Bass

Pittsburgh

I like Jeff Capel a lot, but a reported $15 million buyout is among the biggest reasons he’s still in charge. He arrived to a mess, but hasn’t really rectified the situation with his 51-69 record through four seasons — and to make matters worse, now top recruit Dior Johnson is indefinitely suspended following recent assault charges. — Brendan Marks

Taking Dior Johnson — who had more red flags than Team Canada in the Opening Ceremony — whiffed of desperation. And that … doesn’t seem to be going well. There has been continued roster upheaval, and Capel even recently apologized to his returning players for bemoaning the lack of talent last season. At some point, the buyout becomes less expensive than continuing down a disastrous path. — Brian Bennett

Stanford

Patrick Ewing isn’t going to happen during the season. Jerod Haase might if things get off to a rough start, in the seventh season of a very underwhelming tenure at Stanford. — Joe Rexrode

Syracuse

Are any retirements on deck in Syracuse or is that a few years away? — Scott Dochterman

UCF

The Knights have talent in an American Athletic Conference that is seemingly wide open for second place behind Houston, but they also have a potentially combustible nonconference slate. If they start slow in Year 7 under Johnny Dawkins — who has just one NCAA Tournament appearance on his resume and a move to the Big 12 looming —  UCF might opt to get an early start on a refresh. — Justin Williams

Previous predictions:

Mid-major that can make a March run

Most entertaining player in the country

Most compelling game of 2022-23

(Our complete panel of experts: Nicole Auerbach, Tobias Bass, Brian Bennett, Eamonn Brennan, Seth Davis, Scott Dochterman, Brian Hamilton, Hugh Kellenberger, Brendan Marks, Austin Meek, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Brendan Quinn, Joe Rexrode, Kyle Tucker, Sam Vecenie and Justin Williams.)

(Photo of Fred Hoiberg: Steven Branscombe / USA Today)