Welcome to March Madness! In the last few years at The Athletic, we’ve made projections for every NCAA conference tournament and using my projection model, we’ve made our best bets on those conference tournaments. There’s plenty of college basketball tournament action to pay attention to starting this week with several smaller conference tournaments. Is our next Cinderella of March waiting in these conference tournaments?
My college basketball projection model uses advanced metrics, adjusted for opponents, from more than 10 years of data to create a projection for each team. From there, I simulate each college basketball tournament one million times to get projected odds for each team to secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
We’ve been pretty profitable the last two years as we are up more than 12 units. Conferences will be added here as tournament brackets are finalized this week.
Past performance:
2022 conference tournament future bets: 8-16, +7.48 units, +46.5% ROI
2023 conference tournament future bets: 5-6, +5.28 units, +71.8% ROI
2024 Conference Tournament Best Bets
OVC: Little Rock +225 (risk 1.5 unit)
Big South: Radford +5000 (risk 0.1 units)
Patriot: Boston University +1000 (risk 0.1 units)
WCC: Saint Mary’s +105 (risk 1.0 unit)
Southern: Furman +800 (risk 0.25 units)
Southern: Wofford +2000 (risk 0.1 units)
Coastal: College of Charleston +210 (risk 0.5 units)
Coastal: Hofstra +325 (risk 0.5 units)
Big Sky: Montana +310 (risk 0.5 units)
Big Sky: Northern Colorado +550 (risk 0.25 units)
2024 Conference Tournament Projections
xOdds is how often a team wins the conference tournament in 1,000,000 simulations. Odds is the BetMGM odds as of Monday morning. Implied % is percentage chance team has of winning conference tournament based on BetMGM odds. Edge is the percentage edge a bet has based on the expected win percentage and the implied odds.
Atlantic Sun
First round: March 4
Quarterfinals: March 5
Semifinals: March 7
Championship: March 10 (2 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Eastern Kentucky |
34.3% |
+140 |
41.7% |
-7.4% |
|
Lipscomb |
27.1% |
+300 |
25.0% |
2.1% |
|
Stetson |
18.5% |
+380 |
20.8% |
-2.3% |
|
Austin Peay |
7.0% |
+700 |
12.5% |
-5.5% |
|
North Florida |
5.0% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
0.2% |
|
North Alabama |
2.8% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-1.0% |
|
Queens |
3.1% |
+2200 |
4.3% |
-1.2% |
|
Jacksonville |
2.1% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
-0.3% |
Horizon
First round: March 5
Quarterfinals: March 7
Semifinals: March 11
Championship: March 12 (7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
30.0% |
+180 |
35.7% |
-5.7% |
|
|
22.4% |
+250 |
28.6% |
-6.2% |
|
|
19.8% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-5.2% |
|
|
6.5% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-1.2% |
|
|
4.0% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-3.7% |
|
|
7.4% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
0.7% |
|
|
5.0% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
0.2% |
|
|
4.6% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
-0.2% |
|
|
0.2% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.8% |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
Patriot
First round: March 5
Quarterfinals: March 7
Semifinals: March 10
Championship: March 13 (7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
63.0% |
-275 |
73.3% |
-10.3% |
|
|
3.5% |
+700 |
12.5% |
-9.0% |
|
|
11.1% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
2.0% |
|
|
8.0% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
-1.1% |
|
|
6.2% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
5.5% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
0.7% |
|
|
1.7% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
0.9% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.1% |
|
|
0.1% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.9% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
Sun Belt
First round: March 5
Second round: March 7
Quarterfinals: March 9
Semifinals: March 10
Championship: March 11 (6 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
Big South
First round: March 6
Quarterfinals: March 8
Semifinals: March 9
Championship: March 10 (12 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
38.5% |
+110 |
47.6% |
-9.1% |
|
|
25.4% |
+250 |
28.6% |
-3.2% |
|
|
11.0% |
+700 |
12.5% |
-1.5% |
|
|
12.0% |
+800 |
11.1% |
0.9% |
|
|
6.2% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-1.5% |
|
|
1.5% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
-0.9% |
|
|
3.8% |
5000 |
2.0% |
1.8% |
|
|
0.6% |
10000 |
1.0% |
-0.4% |
|
|
1.0% |
10000 |
1.0% |
0.0% |
NEC
Quarterfinals: March 6
Semifinals: March 9
Championship: March 12 (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Merrimack |
41.9% |
+120 |
45.5% |
-3.6% |
|
Central Connecticut State |
30.8% |
+160 |
38.5% |
-7.7% |
|
Sacred Heart |
9.8% |
+750 |
11.8% |
-2.0% |
|
Le Moyne |
7.8% |
+900 |
10.0% |
-2.2% |
|
Wagner |
5.3% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
0.5% |
|
Fairleigh Dickinson |
3.0% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
0.6% |
|
LIU Brooklyn |
0.6% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.4% |
|
St. Francis PA |
0.8% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.2% |
Ohio Valley
First round: March 6
Quarterfinals: March 7
Semifinals: March 8
Championship: March 9 (7 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Morehead State |
33.8% |
-110 |
52.4% |
-18.6% |
|
Little Rock |
39.5% |
+225 |
30.8% |
8.7% |
|
Tennessee Martin |
16.4% |
+400 |
20.0% |
-3.6% |
|
Western Illinois |
6.1% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
-3.0% |
|
Tennessee State |
1.5% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-2.3% |
|
SIU Edwardsville |
1.5% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
-0.5% |
|
Eastern Illinois |
0.6% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.4% |
|
Southern Indiana |
0.6% |
+12500 |
0.8% |
-0.2% |
Missouri Valley
First round: March 7
Quarterfinals: March 8
Semifinals: March 9
Championship: March 10 (2 p.m. ET on CBS)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
30.0% |
+165 |
37.7% |
-7.7% |
|
|
27.9% |
+200 |
33.3% |
-5.4% |
|
|
21.9% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-3.1% |
|
|
9.2% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
4.1% |
+1800 |
5.3% |
-1.2% |
|
|
3.1% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.6% |
+6600 |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
|
1.7% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
0.7% |
|
|
1.2% |
+12500 |
0.8% |
0.4% |
|
|
0.1% |
+12500 |
0.8% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.1% |
+12500 |
0.8% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
WCC
First round: March 7
Second round: March 8
Quarterfinals: March 9
Semifinals: March 11
Championship: March 12 (9 p.m. ET on ESPN)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
36.7% |
-110 |
52.4% |
-15.7% |
|
|
52.6% |
+105 |
48.8% |
3.8% |
|
|
7.2% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
-1.9% |
|
|
2.8% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-1.0% |
|
|
0.5% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.1% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.9% |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
Coastal
First round: March 8
Second round: March 9
Quarterfinals: March 10
Semifinals: March 11
Championship: March 12 (7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
34.2% |
+210 |
32.3% |
1.9% |
|
|
26.7% |
+325 |
23.5% |
3.2% |
|
|
12.6% |
+325 |
23.5% |
-10.9% |
|
|
11.7% |
+350 |
22.2% |
-10.5% |
|
|
7.6% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
0.9% |
|
|
4.2% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-2.5% |
|
|
0.7% |
+3000 |
3.2% |
-2.5% |
|
|
0.6% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
-1.8% |
|
|
1.3% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
0.2% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.8% |
|
|
0.1% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.9% |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
Southern
Opening round: March 8
Quarterfinals: March 9
Semifinals: March 10
Championship: March 11 (7 p.m. ET on ESPN)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
24.1% |
+150 |
40.0% |
-15.9% |
|
|
16.0% |
+375 |
21.1% |
-5.1% |
|
|
19.3% |
+425 |
19.0% |
0.3% |
|
|
15.8% |
+550 |
15.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
13.4% |
+800 |
11.1% |
2.3% |
|
|
6.0% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
1.2% |
|
|
3.3% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
-1.5% |
|
|
1.6% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.5% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
Summit League
First round: March 8
Quarterfinals: March 9 and 10
Semifinals: March 11
Championship: March 12 (9:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
29% |
+180 |
35.7% |
-6.7% |
|
|
23.8% |
+200 |
33.3% |
-9.5% |
|
|
12.2% |
+500 |
16.7% |
-4.5% |
|
|
12.6% |
+700 |
12.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
6.2% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
6% |
+1600 |
5.9% |
0.1% |
|
|
6% |
+1600 |
5.9% |
0.1% |
|
|
3.2% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
0.8% |
|
|
1% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
0.0% |
America East
Quarterfinals: March 9
Semifinals: March 12
Championship: March 16 (11 a.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
57.3% |
-250 |
71.4% |
-14.1% |
|
|
22.5% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-2.5% |
|
|
8.1% |
+850 |
10.5% |
-2.4% |
|
|
3.0% |
+4500 |
2.2% |
0.8% |
|
|
2.8% |
+3500 |
2.8% |
0.0% |
|
|
2.8% |
+5500 |
1.8% |
1.0% |
|
|
2.2% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
1.0% |
|
|
1.3% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
0.1% |
Big Sky
First round: March 9
Second round: March 10
Quarterfinals: March 11
Semifinals: March 12
Championship: March 13 (11:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
27.9% |
+310 |
24.4% |
3.5% |
|
|
24.4% |
+200 |
33.3% |
-8.9% |
|
|
16.4% |
+550 |
15.4% |
1.0% |
|
|
13.2% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-11.8% |
|
|
9.2% |
+1600 |
5.9% |
3.3% |
|
|
3.9% |
+1700 |
5.6% |
-1.7% |
|
|
3.3% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.8% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
|
0.8% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.2% |
|
|
0.3% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.7% |
Southland
First round: March 10
Quarterfinals: March 11
Semifinals: March 12
Final: March 13 (5 p.m. ET on ESPN2
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
McNeese State |
59.9% |
-330 |
76.7% |
-16.8% |
|
Texas A&M Corpus Christi |
24.9% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-0.1% |
|
Lamar |
6.5% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-0.2% |
|
Nicholls State |
3.6% |
+1700 |
5.6% |
-2.0% |
|
Southeastern Louisiana |
2.5% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
0.5% |
|
Northwestern State |
1.7% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
0.7% |
|
Texas A&M Commerce |
0.8% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
0.3% |
|
New Orleans |
0.1% |
+30000 |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
(Photo of Aidan Mahaney: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
