Conference tournament season is in full swing, with a few tournaments already done and a handful more underway. The final 17 tournaments get started this week, and I’ve modeled tournament championship chances for every team participating.
My college basketball projection model uses advanced metrics, adjusted for opponents, from more than 10 years of data. From there, I simulate each college basketball tournament one million times to get projected odds for each team to secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
I also pick out some best bets depending on which projections show value compared to betting odds. Today, we’re covering the tournaments that commenced this week, but if you want to track everything, here are the picks from the first week, which still has some teams alive.
Past performance:
2022 conference tournament future bets: 8-16, +7.48 units, +46.5% ROI
2023 conference tournament future bets: 5-6, +5.28 units, +71.8% ROI
2024 Conference Tournament Best Bets
Odds from BetMGM. Always shop around for best prices on odds.
AAC: FAU +185 (risk 1.5 units)
AAC: UAB +1600 (risk 0.1 units)
A10: Loyola Chicago +650 (risk 0.25 units)
A10: George Mason +1600 (risk 0.1 units)
ACC: Duke +190 (risk 0.5 units)
Big Ten: Wisconsin +1500 (risk 0.1 units)
Big Ten: Ohio State +3500 (risk 0.1 units)
MAAC: Iona +900 (risk 0.1 units)
MAC: Toledo +275 (risk 0.5 units)
MAC: Bowling Green +1600 (risk 0.1 units)
MEAC: UNC Central +220 (risk 0.5 units)
Pac-12: Colorado +500 (risk 0.25 units)
Pac-12: Oregon +1200 (risk 0.1 units)
SEC: Texas A&M +4000 (risk 0.1 units)
SWAC: Texas Southern +475 (risk 1 unit)
WAC: Grand Canyon -145 (to win 1.0 unit)
2024 Conference Tournament Projections
“xOdds” is how often a team wins the conference tournament in 1,000,000 simulations. “Odds” is the BetMGM odds as of Monday morning, but odds vary at different sportsbooks on conference tournament bets, so shop around for the best price. “Imp%” (implied percentage) is the percentage chance a team has of winning their conference tournament based on the BetMGM odds. “Edge” is the percentage edge a bet has based on the expected win percentage (xOdds) and the implied percentage (imp%).
Atlantic 10
First round: March 12
Second round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (1 p.m. ET on CBS)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
35.3% |
+140 |
41.7% |
-6.4% |
|
|
15.6% |
+650 |
13.3% |
2.3% |
|
|
12.9% |
+600 |
14.3% |
-1.4% |
|
|
7.7% |
+500 |
16.7% |
-9.0% |
|
|
7.2% |
+1600 |
5.9% |
1.3% |
|
|
5.8% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
-3.3% |
|
|
5.4% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-2.3% |
|
|
5.1% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-2.6% |
|
|
4.1% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.5% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
-1.5% |
|
|
0.2% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.1% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.9% |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
ACC
First round: March 12
Second round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
35.7% |
+190 |
34.5% |
1.2% |
|
|
30.9% |
+200 |
33.3% |
-2.4% |
|
|
10.3% |
+900 |
10.0% |
0.3% |
|
|
6.4% |
+700 |
12.5% |
-6.1% |
|
|
5.9% |
+900 |
10.0% |
-4.1% |
|
|
5.4% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-2.3% |
|
|
2.8% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-1.0% |
|
|
0.9% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
0.7% |
+6600 |
1.5% |
-0.8% |
|
|
0.6% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
-1.4% |
|
|
0.2% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.8% |
|
|
0.2% |
+30000 |
0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
Big 12
First round: March 12
Second round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (6 p.m. ET on ESPN)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
57.1% |
-165 |
62.3% |
-5.2% |
|
|
11.8% |
+400 |
20.0% |
-8.2% |
|
|
9.1% |
+800 |
11.1% |
-2.0% |
|
|
7.3% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
-1.8% |
|
|
4.4% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
-0.4% |
|
|
3.6% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-3.1% |
|
|
2.9% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-0.9% |
|
|
1.0% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
1.7% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
-0.3% |
|
|
0.3% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.3% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.3% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.9% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
Conference USA
First round: March 12
Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (8:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
46.7% |
+105 |
48.8% |
-2.1% |
|
|
18.8% |
+400 |
20.0% |
-1.2% |
|
|
16.0% |
+450 |
18.2% |
-2.2% |
|
|
9.1% |
+450 |
18.2% |
-9.1% |
|
|
5.8% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-1.9% |
|
|
1.2% |
+3000 |
3.2% |
-2.0% |
|
|
1.1% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
1.0% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
0.3% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.4% |
MAAC
Opening round: March 12
Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
23.1% |
+250 |
28.6% |
-5.5% |
|
|
21.2% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-3.8% |
|
|
11.8% |
+900 |
10.0% |
1.8% |
|
|
11.8% |
+650 |
13.3% |
-1.5% |
|
|
10.1% |
+550 |
15.4% |
-5.3% |
|
|
9.9% |
+550 |
15.4% |
-5.5% |
|
|
5.7% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-1.0% |
|
|
4.8% |
+1600 |
5.9% |
-1.1% |
|
|
1.4% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
-0.6% |
|
|
0.1% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
AAC
First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Quarterfinals: March 15
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (3:15 p.m. ET on ESPN)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
43.1% |
+185 |
35.1% |
8.0% |
|
|
13.4% |
+500 |
16.7% |
-3.3% |
|
|
13.2% |
+500 |
16.7% |
-3.5% |
|
|
11.3% |
+400 |
20.0% |
-8.7% |
|
|
8.4% |
+1600 |
5.9% |
2.5% |
|
|
5.1% |
+850 |
10.5% |
-5.4% |
|
|
3.0% |
+1500 |
6.3% |
-3.3% |
|
|
0.8% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.5% |
+9000 |
1.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
0.5% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.2% |
|
|
0.4% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.8% |
|
|
0.2% |
+50000 |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
0.1% |
+100000 |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
0.0% |
+50000 |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
Big East
First round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
61.5% |
-165 |
62.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
18.3% |
+375 |
21.1% |
-2.8% |
|
|
7.7% |
+650 |
13.3% |
-5.6% |
|
|
6.5% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-0.2% |
|
|
2.2% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
-5.5% |
|
|
2.2% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
-0.2% |
|
|
0.8% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.5% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.2% |
|
|
0.3% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
Big Ten
First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Quarterfinals: March 15
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
42.6% |
+100 |
50.0% |
-7.4% |
|
|
20.3% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-4.7% |
|
|
8.8% |
+700 |
12.5% |
-3.7% |
|
|
7.5% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
-1.6% |
|
|
7.4% |
+1500 |
6.3% |
1.2% |
|
|
6.2% |
+3500 |
2.8% |
3.4% |
|
|
3.5% |
+1600 |
5.9% |
-2.4% |
|
|
1.4% |
+3500 |
2.8% |
-1.4% |
|
|
1.2% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
0.6% |
+6000 |
1.6% |
-1.0% |
|
|
0.3% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.2% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.8% |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+35000 |
0.3% |
-0.3% |
Big West
First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
63.0% |
-250 |
71.4% |
-8.4% |
|
|
17.9% |
+450 |
18.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
7.7% |
+850 |
10.5% |
-2.8% |
|
|
5.4% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-1.3% |
|
|
2.5% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
0.5% |
|
|
2.0% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
-2.8% |
|
|
0.8% |
+6600 |
1.5% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.6% |
+6600 |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
MEAC
Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (1 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
| team | xodds | odds | imp% | edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
32.5% |
+180 |
35.7% |
-3.2% |
|
|
32.4% |
+220 |
31.3% |
1.2% |
|
|
17.5% |
+400 |
20.0% |
-2.5% |
|
|
11.1% |
+550 |
15.4% |
-4.3% |
|
|
4.6% |
+1000 |
9.1% |
-4.5% |
|
|
1.3% |
+2200 |
4.3% |
-3.0% |
|
|
0.4% |
+9000 |
1.1% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.1% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.6% |
Mountain West
First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (6 p.m. ET on CBS)
|
team
|
xodds
|
odds
|
imp%
|
edge
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
27.2% |
+250 |
28.6% |
-1.4% |
|
|
16.4% |
+425 |
19.0% |
-2.6% |
|
|
13.5% |
+600 |
14.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
13.4% |
+500 |
16.7% |
-3.3% |
|
|
12.2% |
+600 |
14.3% |
-2.1% |
|
|
10.6% |
+600 |
14.3% |
-3.7% |
|
|
6.2% |
+600 |
14.3% |
-8.1% |
|
|
0.5% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
Pac-12
First round: March 13
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (9 p.m. ET on FOX)
|
team
|
xodds
|
odds
|
imp%
|
edge
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
43.3% |
-175 |
63.6% |
-20.3% |
|
|
24.0% |
+500 |
16.7% |
7.3% |
|
|
11.7% |
+600 |
14.3% |
-2.6% |
|
|
10.1% |
+1200 |
7.7% |
2.4% |
|
|
4.9% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-1.8% |
|
|
2.3% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
-0.1% |
|
|
1.4% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
-3.4% |
|
|
1.3% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
-1.1% |
|
|
0.4% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.6% |
|
|
0.3% |
+8000 |
1.2% |
-0.9% |
|
|
0.2% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
0.4% |
-0.4% |
SEC
First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Quarterfinals: March 15
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (1 p.m. ET on ESPN)
|
team
|
xodds
|
odds
|
imp%
|
edge
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
30.5% |
+200 |
33.3% |
-2.8% |
|
|
28.2% |
+160 |
38.5% |
-10.3% |
|
|
13.2% |
+500 |
16.7% |
-3.5% |
|
|
11.7% |
+500 |
16.7% |
-5.0% |
|
|
6.0% |
+4000 |
2.4% |
3.6% |
|
|
5.1% |
+1400 |
6.7% |
-1.6% |
|
|
2.5% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
0.5% |
|
|
2.0% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
0.3% |
+10000 |
1.0% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.2% |
+12500 |
0.8% |
-0.6% |
|
|
0.1% |
+15000 |
0.7% |
-0.6% |
|
|
0.1% |
+12500 |
0.8% |
-0.7% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
+20000 |
0.5% |
-0.5% |
SWAC
Quarterfinals: March 13 and 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (9:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU)
|
team
|
xodds
|
odds
|
imp%
|
edge
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
27.6% |
+475 |
17.4% |
10.2% |
|
|
19.5% |
+280 |
26.3% |
-6.8% |
|
|
14.7% |
+350 |
22.2% |
-7.5% |
|
|
12.6% |
+300 |
25.0% |
-12.4% |
|
|
8.2% |
+800 |
11.1% |
-2.9% |
|
|
7.5% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
2.7% |
|
|
7.3% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
2.5% |
|
|
2.6% |
+6000 |
1.6% |
1.0% |
WAC
First round: March 13
Second round: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (1:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU)
|
team
|
xodds
|
odds
|
imp%
|
edge
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
65.4% |
-145 |
59.2% |
6.2% |
|
|
12.9% |
+380 |
20.8% |
-7.9% |
|
|
9.6% |
+550 |
15.4% |
-5.8% |
|
|
8.3% |
+700 |
12.5% |
-4.2% |
|
|
1.5% |
+2500 |
3.8% |
-2.3% |
|
|
1.2% |
+3500 |
2.8% |
-1.6% |
|
|
0.7% |
+6000 |
1.6% |
-0.9% |
|
|
0.4% |
+5000 |
2.0% |
-1.6% |
MAC
Quarterfinals: March 14
Semifinals: March 15
Championship: March 16 (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2)
Ivy League
Semifinals: March 16
Championship: March 17 (Noon ET on ESPN2)
|
team
|
xodds
|
odds
|
imp%
|
edge
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
47.8% |
+100 |
50.0% |
-2.2% |
|
|
31.0% |
+200 |
33.3% |
-2.3% |
|
|
17.9% |
+350 |
22.2% |
-4.3% |
|
|
3.2% |
+2000 |
4.8% |
-1.6% |
(Photo of Kyle Filipowski and Armando Bacot: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
