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The coaching carousel always spins. Always. It’s only a matter of who hops on for the ride and who’s still standing at the end.

In that spirit: We present The Athletic’s men’s college basketball coaches to watch for the 2022-23 season.

As ever, this is a subjective list compiled after consulting with people around the game, and not necessarily intended to be a best-of-the-best evaluation. This year’s exercise is more about the men in situations — however you want to define those — that could propel them to the forefront of job-search headlines.

And while we usually do this before the ball is topped, a couple weeks’ worth of results have been instructive in some cases. Without further ado: clip and save for the offseason.

(All sub-section names are listed in alphabetical order.)

The usual suspects

If there’s anything like a consensus on the mid-major coaches poised for power-conference gigs, it looks a lot like the above, give or take. Established histories of winning. Fairly unanimous respect among peers. It’s probably the top tier of names we’ll see tossed about for various vacancies this offseason. But that’s the trick, too: How upwardly mobile this group proves to be will largely depend on the amount of gigs that open at the power-conference level, and while some movement is inevitable, the rash of firings and hirings have college basketball observers wondering how wild the carousel will be this time around.

Jones has impressed in interviews during various head coach searches and has led Yale to either a regular-season title or an Ivy League tournament championship in five of the last seven seasons. He’d surely want to move up; the question is institutional fit and, frankly, a big-school administration willing to be OK with hiring from the Ivies. A similar dynamic applies to McKay, who has crossed the 200-win mark at Liberty and has won or shared four straight Atlantic Sun Conference regular-season or division titles, but who also would be somewhat choosy about fit.

It’s a little surprising that McCasland hasn’t been snatched up for a more high-profile gig, given that he’s won 64 percent of his games as a head coach and has three straight years of securing either a regular-season championship or a conference tournament title. But it’s also unlikely we’ll see big jobs in Texas or even the general region open soon. Is someone going to have to take a leap on McCasland winning outside of his geographic wheelhouse?

Grant, meanwhile, is a fascinating case. Dayton athletic director Neil Sullivan told me earlier this fall that the school looks at teams that earn NCAA Tournament at-large bids and then resources its men’s hoops program accordingly. That’s the bar. And Grant, a Dayton alum, demonstrates no itchiness to leave. But if the Flyers remain a Top 25 program throughout 2022-23, chances are someone will inquire about his services. Grant’s answer may define a program looking to win enough, for long enough, to catch the eye of conferences looking to expand.

And, yes, Rick Pitino, now past the Louisville/NCAA saga, could be persuaded to take one last shot at a power gig, particularly given his buyout of zero dollars.

The power aides

Ah, the part of this exercise where everyone is bound to be ticked off. We’re talking about 900-plus assistants across the Division I ranks and probably just as many opinions on what constitutes a good coach. Not to mention that every head coach muddles the evaluation by more or less stumping for their own guys. Because that’s what head coaches do.

So we did this: two assistants from each power league, to keep the list manageable and also anger as many people as possible. (Plus Gonzaga, which, if you haven’t heard, is not a mid-major.)

It’s more than fair, though, to say Baylor’s Jakus has consensus respect well beyond Waco city lines. If the Bears recapture the Final Four form they demonstrated early on — before stumbling against Virginia in Las Vegas — chances are Jakus is the next Scott Drew assistant to get targeted to bring that blueprint elsewhere. At Purdue, Johnson has assumed the offensive coordinator duties on Matt Painter’s staff … and the Boilermakers finished second nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency in 2021-22 and started this week ranked 14th, per KenPom.com. The results suggest this is less a ceremonial line for the resume and much more the final piece that gets Johnson a shot to run his own program, particularly since he’s seen how consistent winners are built at Ohio State and now in West Lafayette.

Savino and Williford seemingly have lifetime appointments on top assistant coach lists; what will it take to move them into the big chair somewhere else? Savino is, by all accounts, ready to run his own show if the situation is right. If Virginia, in particular, rebounds from a ho-hum 2021-22 to challenge in the ACC and make a deep March run, when will the timing be better for Williford?

Blount and Diebler have come close already in other searches; could just be a matter of not a lot of time before they’re in the big chair. Both Henry and Bryan Hodgson probably will earn their way out of Tuscaloosa soon, and Henry’s background in the NBA and running a G League team could be a separator for him in searches. Both Powell and Brian Michaelson are internally viewed as ready at Gonzaga, and Tommy Lloyd’s success at Arizona is something like proof of concept that the Zags way works even if Mark Few isn’t running the show. But Spokane is a very comfortable place to be, too.

Ones to know, since you may not

McCollum may be the most-copied coach in the country that the general public has never heard of. More and more teams run some version of the stuff that has won him four of the last five Division II national championships. But his peers aren’t in the dark. “Number one on your list should be Ben McCollum,” one sitting power conference head coach said. It has to happen at some point for the 41-year-old Iowa native. The question, really, is what level of job McCollum wants to pursue. Is something like the Horizon League enough? The Missouri Valley Conference? Even bigger still?

All Jones has done at Norfolk State is win double-digit games in the MEAC in 10 of the last 11 seasons, with the Spartans making two straight NCAA Tournaments. As a grassroots coach noted in The Athletic’s men’s basketball coach tiers: Look past the buy-game results that are, very often, nearly guaranteed losses. Some athletic director will look very smart for giving Jones more to work with.

Johnson doesn’t have an extended track record, but he does have two conference titles in two years as Texas State’s head coach. As long as he maintains momentum in the Sun Belt, his visibility will increase. Langel, 44, has taken Colgate from complete irrelevance to three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, losing a total of 12 Patriot League games in the past four seasons. The back-to-back wins at Syracuse, though, are the moments that catapult the cat out of the bag.

Simon had Kansas on its heels on Nov. 18 in what turned out to be a six-point loss for the Thunderbirds, but it’s not a one-scare wonder. Simon has led the way to three straight winning seasons — including two campaigns of 20-plus wins — at one of the hardest jobs anywhere.

Wild cards

Here’s where we mush together a few interpretations of what it means to be watchable. Vermont’s John Becker and St. Bonaventure’s Mark Schmidt, for example, are in similar predicaments: It’s fairly clear both of them can win, and it’s fairly clear both of them would like to take a shot at doing so in a power-conference spotlight … and yet someone has to make that offer. Both Vermont and St. Bonaventure, meanwhile, have had rocky starts to 2022-23 for one reason or another. It could be that turnarounds open up some exit lanes, or it could be that both don’t ever find appealing ways out.

Xavier’s Adam Cohen left Stanford to jump aboard for Sean Miller’s return to the sidelines, and it’s a move that could provide the final oomph Cohen needs to grab his own top job. But … Xavier needs to win big first. It probably will. But when is the critical variable. In fact, there are a number of assistants who have semi-recently switched up gigs, and who will factor into job searches if their programs as a whole create or maintain momentum; Wake Forest’s B.J. McKie and Oklahoma’s Emanuel Dildy fit that bill, among others.

Nolan Smith has been anointed as a future head coach before he was even a full-time assistant coach, and becoming Kenny Payne’s titular top assistant at Louisville theoretically nudges him closer to that. But, um, well, there’s no easy way to say this: The Cardinals are bad. How much will that matter? For Smith, might a couple steps back precede a few steps forward?

Drew Valentine cuts the profile of a power-conference head coach for a lot of reasons, and he’s not going to stay put forever. But how well LoyolavzChicago performs in its new Atlantic 10 home likely defines how long Valentine has to wait for his chance. The 25 wins in Year 1 were great. But that roster was loaded with experience. The Ramblers are 2-3 in Year 2 so far. It’ll be intriguing to see whether a program-wide step up cools Valentine’s candidacy or provides a rocket-fueled boost.

And while we’re literally watching Steve Wojciechowski, who traded in the yoga studio for the ESPN television studio for the season, we can wonder: How much does the former Marquette coach want back in? And would he want back into college hoops … or somewhere else?

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photos: Larry Radloff, Ethan Miller / Getty Images)