The penultimate West Regional first-round game of the men’s NCAA Tournament features the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 13 Charleston Cougars. The Tide are considerable favorites in the odds, and only one person on our team of pickers chose Charleston to advance.
Still, this is March Madness, and anything is possible. Shout out to Cougars fans and the lone voice of Joe Rexrode.
Alabama is pretty ineffective on defense to the point of carelessness, and Charleston enters the tournament hot. But ultimately, the odds — and most of our experts — are going with the Tide and their elite offensive output. One thing that should be fun: both teams love to shoot threes.
To get you ready for the matchup, we’ve got a breakdown of both teams, plus odds, picks and a projection for point spread and total.
Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans’ The Gaming Juice.
No. 13 Charleston Cougars
They enter the tournament hot. The Cougars could scare a high seed — if the 3-pointers fall.
Outlook: A year ago, Charleston nearly ended national runner-up San Diego State’s tournament in the first round, losing by six in a game that was tied with three minutes to go. The Cougars only returned two starters, but Pat Kelsey’s bunch won 27 games and the CAA regular-season and conference titles for the second year in a row.
They play at a fast tempo and take care of the basketball (30th nationally in turnover percentage, per KenPom). The offense is balanced — six players, led by Reyne Smith (12.8 points per game), average at least eight points per game. The Cougars shoot a lot of 3-pointers. They’re 19-1 when they make at least 10 3-pointers, and 39.5 percent of their points come from beyond the arc — among tournament teams, only BYU relies on them more heavily.
Ante Brzovic, a 6-foot-10 center from Croatia, gives Charleston some size. The metrics show the Cougars aren’t as solid defensively as a year ago (176th in efficiency, per KenPom, versus 67th last season), and that was evident in their only Quad 1 game — a 90-74 loss to Florida Atlantic in December.
Kelsey has been highly successful at the mid-major level, going 47-12 in his final two seasons at Winthrop before taking the Charleston job. He has now run up a 58-11 mark in the last two campaigns but is still looking for his first NCAA Tournament win — Charleston has to hope it comes soon, before a high-major tries to pry him away.
—Mark Cooper
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama plays like an NBA team: 3-pointers and layups, nothing mid-range and defense is optional.
Strengths: Alabama can score, but this should not surprise anyone paying attention. Not only have the Crimson Tide registered a top-three adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, they also happen to play at the fastest pace of any high-major team. It’s a style specifically designed by Nate Oats to lean into the math: the most efficient way to score is to shoot threes, layups and free throws only. Guards Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada are surrounded by a handful of 3-point snipers (Latrell Wrightsell Jr., Rylan Griffen, Sam Walters) and athletic bigs.
Weaknesses: The problem? Alabama is not interested in playing defense. One of the most impactful early-entry decisions last summer was that of Charles Bediako, a 7-foot shot-blocker who left school with two seasons of eligibility remaining. Without him, Alabama has gone from a top-three defense in the sport to a team that ranked just outside the top 100 in the regular season. As Oats himself put it, “everybody knows we don’t really guard at this point.” It’s a combination of a lack of rim protection and a lack of effort.
Outlook: I want to get excited about this Alabama crew, but it’s very difficult to buy in on the Crimson Tide as a threat to get to the Final Four when they have to rely on trying to score in the triple digits to beat the best teams in the country. When you live by the three … eventually you will die by the three.
—Rob Dauster
How to watch Charleston vs. Alabama
What: West Region, First Round
Tipoff time: 7:35 p.m. ET Friday
TV: truTV
Location: Spokane, Wash.
Charleston vs. Alabama odds
Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.
Expert picks
Austin Mock’s model projection: Alabama by 6, total 169
See Austin Mock’s best futures bets.
Players to watch
Charleston
- Ante Brzovic, junior forward, first-team All-CAA
Alabama
- Mark Sears, senior guard, first-team All-SEC
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of Mark Sears: Matthew Maxey / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
