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After consecutive years of having a 100+ win team unceremoniously knocked out of the playoffs in the divisional round, it felt like the Braves needed…something. Something more, something different. They are undoubtedly one of, if not the most, talented team in baseball and have been fore a couple of years now. They have multiple MVP caliber position players, including the actual MVP, two Cy Young-level starters, depth in the rotation, and all complimented with a tremendous bullpen. Just by a head count, this team doesn’t really need anything.

But at the same time, it felt like they did and the front office agreed. This winter the Braves added Jarred Kelenic to the outfield mix, brought back fan and clubhouse favorite Adam Duvall, added a ton of depth and velocity to their bullpen, and brought in some new faces for the bench. Though it would’ve been easy to do so, the Braves didn’t just sit on their hands this winter, and “run it back” with the same group. They made moves.

But none of those moves were the move of the winter. That came on December 30th, with this bomb from ESPN’s Jeff Passan:

And followed less than a week later by this one:

Now, is Chris Sale the same guy from 2017? No, it’s highly unlikely the Braves are getting the official Staff Ace version of Chris Sale. But make no mistake, this is a massive move. It’s also a fairly decent sized gamble, considering immediately after making the trade, the Braves locked him into an additional $22M in guaranteed money for the 2025 season, regardless of how 2024 goes.

On the one hand, it’s Chris Sale. Even last year coming back from injury, he was striking out almost 11 guys per nine inning while only walking two per nine. When he’s been healthy, and when he’s pitched, he’s basically always been excellent. He’s still only 34 years old, he still has his velocity and arm speed, clocking 96 and 97 mph fastballs all spring training, and still has that patented wipe-out slider that keeps right-handed and left-handed hitters honest.

This was against Juan Soto last year:

This was against Byron Buxton:

And this was against Kyle Tucker:

Sale’s slider finished at 4.5 runs above average in pitch value last year, and that was only in 100 innings pitched, meaning over a full season, it would’ve been one of they very best pitches in baseball. He can dot it on the inside corner’s to right-handers and left-handers have no shot against it when it’s on.

But he’s not some soft-tossing lefty either. He still has this in the bag:

Again, we’ve seen that velocity this spring with Atlanta. He won’t sit 97-98 any more, as his fastball has averaged right around 95 mph the last few years, but he always has some extra in the tank when he needs a big pitch. Like when he’s facing Juan Soto or Bryce Harper. And if Braves fans are honest, having a plan for Harper come postseason time is not an insignificant factor. It’s very likely Atlanta will be in the playoffs. It’s very likely Philadelphia will be in the playoffs. Atlanta will now have guys like Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez, and Aaron Bummer, and Tyler Matzek to use against guys like Harper and Kyle Schwarber, which were upgrades the Braves desperately needed. They can’t afford to throw away any more seasons by letting Harper face Bryce Elder in the biggest situations of the year.

Most projections still see the 2024 version of Sale as a solid, to very good major league starter. Depending on the system you look at, he’s projected around a 3.80 ERA/3.75 FIP guy for next season, with tons of strikeouts and few walks. The question, of course, is over how many innings? If the Braves get those numbers over 150 innings next year and a healthy Sale for a postseason run, they would be ecstatic. Elated. Thrilled. Over the moon. The point can’t be made enough that when he pitches, he’s basically always been very, very good.

It’s not all upside, of course. A gamble means there is a downside. Yes, whenever Sale has been healthy enough to pitch, he’s been really good. But health is required. The last time Chris Sale made 30+ starts in a season was 2017, when Matt Kemp was still an Atlanta Brave and guys like Austin Riley and Ronald Acuńa Jr were in A-ball. The last time Sale made 25+ starts in a season was 2019, five years ago. In the last four seasons, Sale has thrown a grand total of 150 innings of major league baseball. His arm was used and abused all those years with the White Sox and Red Sox, averaging 192 innings pitched for the eight years from 2012 to 2019. He was arguably the best pitcher in the game over that stretch, but that stretch ended five years ago. It’s been nothing but injury and uncertainty since.

So there is certainly a world where he gets hurt again. Or he pitches pretty well over the season but starts to wear down in September and October, and doesn’t help Atlanta get over the hump in the postseason. Or just straight-up gets hurt for September and October and is unavailable entirely. That’s a very real possibility, and then you still owe him $22M guaranteed in 2025. Plus you have to factor in you traded away six years of Vaughn Grissom to make the deal in the first place. Even if you were of the mind that Grissom had no future in Atlanta and needed to be traded, it didn’t have to be for Sale. There’s an opportunity cost in the deals you can’t make now that you’ve already used Grissom as a trade chip.

The good news is Atlanta really doesn’t need Sale to make the postseason. Unlike all those White Sox and Red Sox teams he played for, the Braves are a playoff team before you ever factor Sale into the equation. Before they traded for him, they were maybe the best team in the league. They’ve won six straight division titles, 104 and 101 games the last two seasons, which came after winning the whole thing in 2021. They have as much talent and depth as any team in baseball. They added Sale to help them get past their demons of back-to-back first round exits . They added him to the bulldog competitor that won’t shrink when the lights get the brightest. But if he’s not there to help with those things come October, it’s going to be hard to view this deal as anything other than a failure.

The Braves, though, are betting they keep Sale healthy for the postseason. Again, they don’t need him all that much to make the playoffs, especially now with expanded playoffs. As it stands today, without a single game being played, FanGraphs gives the Braves a 99% chance to make the postseason. They can be very patient and very selective how and when they use him in the regular season, the reward for having quite a bit of rotation depth in Gwinnett, an elite offense and a terrific bullpen. A conservative approach will be the name of the game over the summer.