The sprint to the finish line begins for the Atlanta Braves Friday night, as they emerge from the All-Star Break to take on the St. Louis Cardinals in a three-game series at Truist Park. The Braves entered the break 11 games over .500 at 53-42, but the first half was a bit of a mixed bag. Atlanta went 19-9 in April but are just 34-33 since, in large part due to injuries and lackluster offensive results.
After leading the majors in virtually all offensive categories in 2023, the Braves’ results have come crashing down to earth in 2024. Atlanta is ranked 19th in runs scored and are tied for tenth with 109 home runs. Despite those numbers, the Braves lead the majors in average exit velocity (90.3 mph), are tied for first in hard hit rate (43.0%), and are second in barrel rate. The team will be banking on the idea that some of that underperformance corrects itself over the next two months; if it doesn’t, the stretch run will be as much of a slog as the season to date.
Atlanta could get a boost soon with the return of Michael Harris II, who is on the Injured List with a hamstring injury. Harris was progressing before the All-Star Break and could begin a rehab assignment soon. The Braves outrighted Brian Anderson off the roster during the layoff, so they will need to fill that spot before Friday’s game.
The Cardinals took two of three from Atlanta in St. Louis in the previous meeting between the two teams. They entered the break with a 50-46 record,which places them 4.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cardinals currently hold the second Wild Card spot and are 3.5 games behind the Braves despite a minus-38 run differential for the season. To add some context, the Washington Nationals also have a minus-38 run differential but are 44-53.
The Cardinals were at .500 as late as June 20, but that was the start of a four-game winning streak for them that pushed them more clearly into contention. (The Braves snapped that streak but lost the series.) The Redbirds looked to keep rolling with a 5-2 start to July, but then got swept in what ended up being a doubleheader two-game set against the Royals, and are just 7-6 in the month so far.
Overall, the Cardinals are a pretty middle-of-the-pack team riding on some good fortune. They’re 18th in position player fWAR, 16th in wRC+, and 20th in xwOBA. They’re 15th in pitching fWAR, and neither their rotation nor their bullpen are in the top ten by that metric. Given all this, it’s not surprising that they’re outplaying their Pythagorean expectation by six games, and their BaseRuns by three games.
Willson Contreras has been destroying the ball (161 wRC+) and leads the position players with 2.3 fWAR despite just 216 PAs so far. Masyn Winn has outhit a poor xwOBA a bunch, and the fact that he’s just behind Contreras in fWAR tells you a lot about their hitting performance. The Cardinals have five different position players with negative fWAR, which is more than they have in excess of 1.0 fWAR so far. On the pitching end, Sonny Gray has been dominant, and Ryan Helsley is having an excellent relief season. Everyone else is kinda meh, though, which matches the hitting.
Friday, July 19, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Sonny Gray (17 GS, 99.2 IP, 30.3 K%, 6.0 BB%, 3.34 ERA, 2.56 FIP)
Right-hander Sonny Gray will get the start in Friday’s opener. Gray has put together a fabulous season in his first with the Cardinals. He made 17 starts in the first half and produced a 3.34 ERA and a 2.56 FIP. He has struck out 30.3 percent of the batters he has faced, which is the second highest mark of his career. His 6.0 percent walk-rate is a career low for Gray. His last start came on July 12 against the Cubs, where he allowed three runs in seven innings. He’s allowed 11 earned runs over his last 16 1/3 innings so the break probably came along at a good time, if only to reset his poor run of luck, given that he had an 18/2 K/BB ratio and had allowed just a single homer in that three-start stretch.
Spencer Schwellenbach (8 GS, 44.2 IP, 21.9 K%, 5.3 BB%, 4.43 ERA, 3.43 FIP)
The Braves will go with rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach when the second half begins Friday. Schwellenbach had an up and down start after being promoted straight from Double0A on May 29 but entered the break on a good note. Schwellenbach produced a 5.68 ERA, albeit with a 4.01 FIP, over his first six starts. He’s allowed two runs combined over his last two starts and 13 innings. He faced the Cardinals in St. Louis on June 24 and allowed four runs in five innings despite a 6/0 K/BB ratio — it was the best start of his career so far, except for the whole extreme BABIP thing.
Saturday, July 20, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Kyle Gibson (18 GS, 101.2 IP, 22.3 K%, 9.5 BB%, 4.16 ERA, 4.20 FIP)
Kyle Gibson will take the ball for the Cardinals in Saturday’s game. St. Louis will be hoping that the break will be good for Gibson, who has struggled since missing a start due to a back issue in June. In four starts after returning, Gibson has allowed 15 runs in 18 innings, though his FIP and xFIP are largely in line with his overall numbers for the season. That stretch began against the Braves where he allowed four runs and walked five in just four innings. In other words, like Gray, Gibson may have hit the All-Star Break at a good time, putting some distance between him and his rotten results despite decent pitching.
Charlie Morton (17 GS, 97.1 IP, 24.0 K%, 9.4 BB%, 4.07 ERA, 4.18 FIP)
The Braves could use a big second half from Charlie Morton, who will take his turn in Saturday’s game. Morton alternated good and bad starts for most of June but was hit particularly hard in his last two before the Break, where he allowed seven runs, including four home runs, in 11 2/3 innings. Morton didn’t face the Cardinals in the earlier series in St. Louis but hasn’t had much luck against them in his career, posting a 5.32 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 21 career starts. While you might guess that a lot of that is driven by his pre-Renaissance days in Pittsburgh, he’s actually been pretty bad against them in three starts as a Brave, too, with two blow-ups and one good outing. He faced them once last season where he allowed three runs and tallied just one strikeout in 5 1/3 innings.
Sunday, July 21, 1:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Miles Mikolas (20 GS, 112.1 IP, 16.6 K%, 3.9 BB%, 5.13 ERA, 4.32 FIP)
Miles Mikolas will get the call for St. Louis in the series finale on Sunday. Mikolas has been a workhorse for Cardinals, is currently leading the league with 20 starts, and is ninth in the NL with 112 1/3 innings pitched. The results have been a mixed bag, though, as he will carry a 5.13 ERA into Sunday’s outingm although his 4.32 FIP tells a bit of a different story. He was hit hard in his final start before the break allowing five runs and two homer in just 4 1/3 innings against the Dodgers. Mikolas has a 3.89 ERA, a 5.50 FIP, and a 4.30 xFIP in seven career games against the Braves and allowed 17 hits and eight runs in 12 2/3 innings against them last season, but the Braves will probably have a tougher time hitting quite so many bombs off him unless the ball suddenly and consistently reverts to the 2023 version for the entire “second half” of the 2024 season.
Max Fried (18 GS, 108.0 IP, 21.5 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.08 ERA, 3.54 FIP)
After throwing a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game, Max Fried will make his first start of the second half in Sunday’s series finale. Fried’s season got off to a tough start, but he quickly rounded into form posting a 2.36 ERA and a 3.43 FIP over his last 16 starts. That said, he’s in a mini-rough stretch, with either an FIP- or xFIP- above 100 in each of his last three starts.
Fried didn’t face the Cardinals in the previous series between the two teams but has a sparkling 1.10 ERA and 2.16 FIP in six games against St. Louis in his career (though his xFIP is pretty much his career xFIP).
