A big thank you to everyone who took time to send in questions for this week’s Atlanta Braves mailbag. If I didn’t get to yours, we will do this again soon. Let’s get to it!
I realize hitters have slumps, but aren’t those of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson more pronounced than normal ones and need intervention?
I’m not sure exactly what kind of intervention you are suggesting here because I can assure you that both players are working as hard with the coaching staff as they can to correct the problem. But, since this is the hot topic around the team right now, let’s take a closer look at both players.
If you look back at his career, Olson has a history of being a streaky player at times. You need look no further than to his first season in Atlanta when a September slump drug down some of his full season numbers. Olson is 4-for-44 over his last 14 games, but there is some noise in there as well. Olson put up a career season in 2023 and outperformed nearly all his metrics. Through the first month of 2024, the pendulum has swung steeply in the other direction. He’s hitting .206 for the season but has an expected batting average of .265. His .383 slugging percentage is nearly 100 points lower than his .481 xSLG. Finally, he has a .313 wOBA against a .377 xwOBA. His barrel rate is down slightly year over year, but his hard-hit rate is up, and his average exit velocity of 94.7 mph is one mph more than his average during his career-best season in 2023. These numbers suggest that things are going to turn soon enough for Olson. The good news is that he is still walking at a 12.6 percent clip and while the strikeouts are up, it is still a manageable number.
Things are a little different for Acuña, who is underperforming his metrics, but it is a very small gap. You don’t have to look far to see a player that is not making as much contact as a year ago and is not hitting the ball as hard when he does make contact. He is 5-for-33 over his last eight games with 15 strikeouts. Eleven of those strikeouts have come in his last four games.
We cautioned before the season that Acuña set the bar so high last year that it was going to be hard to reach those heights again. Of everything he accomplished last season, an 11.4 percent strikeout rate was the most surprising, and seemed to come in a fashion that most players just can’t achieve: making contact and hitting the ball incredibly hard. With that said, I don’t think anyone anticipated this sharp of a drop off. Acuña’s ground ball rate is up to 53.2 percent, but that is only a slight increase over last season when it was 49.5 percent.
Acuña crushed fastballs last season with a .575 slugging percentage and a .425 wOBA. This season those numbers are down to a .250 slug and a .307 wOBA. While a lot of people are focused on the fastball, Acuña slugged .670 against breaking pitches a year ago, but is at .379 one month into this season. Both of these things can be attributed at least somewhat to an approach that saw him chase non-fastballs in the hopes of timing up a fastball, and that, at least, has largely started to abate.
I’m no hitting expert, so let’s get that out of the way. But, I see a guy that is pressing and trying to pull everything. Per FanGraphs, Acuña’s pull rate is up from 39.7 percent a year ago to 48.1 percent this season. His opposite field percentage is close year over year, but there has been a big drop off with him in the middle of the field, which can also speak to timing issues (which seem pretty apparent at this point). I think right now he is trying to do too much. Maybe that is a result of missing so much time during the spring. Maybe it has to do with his first extended slump in over a year because he never really struggled for any stretch last season. It also should be a reminder that this is a difficult game and hitting a baseball is probably the most difficult thing in professional sports. I think Acuña needs to get back to using the whole field and when he gets there, we will start to see the power return.
If Marcell Ozuna is interested in sticking around, should the Braves be interested in giving him an extension now?
If you had sent in a mailbag question two years asking about a potential new contract for Marcell Ozuna beyond his 2025 club option, I would have laughed you off the page. In fact, without looking back, I probably did that last April. Yet after a massive turnaround last season and a great start in 2024, here we are.
On a possible extension, it all comes down to the terms. If he wants to take a below-market deal to tack on a year or two after the club option, then sure you entertain that, especially if it gives the Braves some breathing room by lowering his luxury tax number. Personally, I’d see how he finishes, and pick up the option if warranted. Then, you can see where he is at next year and reevaluate again. Since May 1, 2023, Ozuna has been outstanding, but you can’t completely erase 2021 and 2022 either. He’s a DH at this point and there should never be any thought of sending him back to the outfield, and that is why we see him taking so many ground balls at first base these days.
One big thing Ozuna has going for him is that he is universally loved in the Braves’ clubhouse. If that wasn’t the case, there is a good chance that he wouldn’t still be here after 2021 and 2022. I know he is swinging a hot bat and has carried the offense while many of the others have struggled, but DH-only options are plentiful and can be found pretty easily. The Braves are going to have to address the starting rotation and unless their home-grown options take a significant step forward, there isn’t going to be a cheap solution. I wouldn’t tie my hands now when a decision on Ozuna doesn’t have to be made, unless he’s willing to do the team a huge favor in some capacity.
I’m expecting Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud will follow similar paths with the Braves on 1+1 deals for the foreseeable future, likely up to when they retire. Could we see Arcia follow a similar path, though maybe not all the way to retirement? I love Nacho Alvarez, but he’s not exactly beating down the door. Jose Perdomo is a long way away.
If the situation with the rotation was different, I’d probably say that shortstop would be the next position to be addressed for Atlanta. Orlando Arcia has been a great story and quite a bargain. He got off to a great start this season while massively outhitting his inputs, but has slumped a bit of late with the rest of the lineup, especially once it became obvious to opposing defenses that he was largely just going to be rolling balls through the hole on the left side. He’s still hugely outperforming his horrid .260 xwOBA via a .305 wOBA, and while the Braves won’t bench him because of his defense and a lack of alternatives, you really have to hope he improves because it would be dreadful to watch a guy hit that badly for a full season.
Still, the Braves probably look at any offense they get from Arcia as a bonus and are mostly concerned with how he plays defensively. He’s under contract through 2025 and has a club option for 2026. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is with the club beyond that, but as more of a utility player than a shortstop. Even if Jose Perdomo pans out and sticks at shortstop, I think there will be another name that bridges the gap between him and Arcia.
If you had the fate of baseball to decide, how would you personally try and combat the Arm injury bug? Possibly add a roster spot and make it for SP specifically? Push for a league wide adoption of a 6-man rotation with said spot. I’ve heard some people talk about limiting pitcher spots, reducing one, under the idea it’ll force pitchers to try and pitch deeper into games. Seems impossible, especially given the game has focused all pitchers on Velo and stuff, I can’t imagine switching back would happen overnight.
I touched on this last mailbag I believe, so I am going to keep this brief here. I don’t know if my answer would help or hurt but the first thing, I would do is up the cap on pitchers to 14 instead of 13. Right now, most teams have a position player that never plays and isn’t needed. I think teams should be allowed to carry that extra pitcher which would give some more flexibility.
The league could be intent on trying to legislate a decrease in velocity and spin. They have mentioned ideas of dropping the max on pitchers to 11 or tying a starting pitcher going five innings to the DH, which are both ludicrous ideas in my opinion. You aren’t going to legislate velocity and spin out of the game. Players know that is what gets them paid and the league isn’t going to be interested in adjusting that. As a result, I believe all the league’s possible solutions are just going to make things worse. Right now, we don’t even know what the long-term effects of having a pitch clock might be on pitchers and we have already seen the league shorten the time. Both sides are going to need to work together on this and that isn’t something we have seen in a long time.
If Max Fried gets another forearm issue or something like that that takes him out for 3 months is the Braves season essentially done? Could the Braves recover from a Fried injury with (assuming) Sale and Lopez not being able to pitch 180 innings this year?
Did you watch the 2023 season? Max Fried was the team’s top pitcher coming into the season and Kyle Wright was coming off a breakout season. Things looked bleak when both went down. Spencer Strider stepped up and the Braves were able to make it work. Losing Fried would hurt, but provided this offense bounces back to the levels most expect, this would still be a playoff team. They may have a hard time holding off the Phillies, but then again, I wouldn’t count them out. I don’t expect Chris Sale or Reynaldo Lopez to come anywhere close to 180 innings, but I also didn’t expect Bryce Elder to log 170+ innings last season. The Braves have starting pitching depth at Triple-A. Some fans may roll their eyes at that suggestion, but if this offense is hitting on all cylinders, they just need guys to fill innings. With all of that said, I certainly hope we don’t have to find out if I’m right.
Also, a WAR-based analysis makes this question look really bad. The Braves aren’t a fringe contender and pretty much anyone halfway trying makes the playoffs these days.
Thus far, Aaron Bummer hasn’t really approached his performance level prior to 2023 and is having another mediocre season. Wouldn’t this affect the team’s willingness to let Minter leave as a free agent?
First on Bummer, he has a 5.23 ERA and a 5.11 expected ERA but also a 3.33 FIP and a 2.61 xFIP so there are some mixed signals there, and those signals aren’t “oh yeah he’s bad again.” Also, his xFIP is back to where it was pre-2023, and that’s probably related to why the Braves acquired him. Opponents have a .424 BABIP against him, which is crazy for a ground ball pitcher. That number will most assuredly come down and his surface numbers will likely benefit from it as well.
To answer your question though, no I don’t think it will alter their approach as far as A.J. Minter goes. The Braves typically keep things quiet if they approach players about extensions. We don’t know if that has or hasn’t happened with Minter. My guess is that Minter has a chance to land a closer’s job somewhere if he puts together another strong season, which would net him a pretty good pay day. The Braves loaded up on lefty options for the bullpen this past offseason. Tyler Matzek, who hasn’t looked great, but honestly has pitched pretty well with an 83 xFIP-, has a club option. Dylan Lee will be back, and they will also have Ray Kerr. Angel Perdomo would be another option who is coming off an injury. Maybe there is a chance that the Braves keep Minter the way they kept Pierce Johnson and Joe Jimenez following last season. I just think that if Minter wants to, he can probably price himself out of Atlanta. Given the short shelf life of relief pitchers and the fact that Minter’s track record is of a guy that actually can get a pretty sweet payday, it wouldn’t be unheard of if he opted for the fun times in the Atlanta bullpen over that, but it would be kind of strange. On the flip side, the Braves are definitely one of the teams interested in paying for reliever performance, so it’s not out of the question that he departs, even if he wants more money than he’s gotten so far.
Despite ATL hoping to have one of AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep in the 2025 rotation plans. Both have been a bit underwhelming so far in April. I don’t really see any benefit of playing seesaw with them at MLB level for next few months and accumulating 15-20 consecutive MILB starts would be very good for their development …. but I also know big league experience is important for them growing into MLB roles ATL may need next season. Just curious on how you see this playing out.
First, I would caution about using surface level stats to evaluate pitching prospects. It is easy to look at Smith-Shawver or Waldrep’s ERA and conclude that they have been underwhelming, but I don’t think that tells the story. Their peripherals don’t necessary either, though Waldrep’s aren’t particularly awful at this time. The Braves have built Smith-Shawver up slowly and he has looked better of late. I know our minor league writers think that all his pitches are improving, and it feels like to me that the Braves are pushing to get him ready to join the rotation. When that happens remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it is sooner rather than later. The biggest thing for Smith-Shawver is his command. If that improves, then I don’t think there is any doubt that he will get a long look in the rotation.
I believe Waldrep is a different situation. They pushed him hard last year but opted to start the season with him at Double-A. I think he could certainly pitch himself into the picture during the second half, but the best approach is probably letting him split the year between Mississippi and Gwinnett. Another injury to the major league staff could certainly alter the plans.
We all know AA is working to rebuild the farm system where do you see the priorities in this year’s draft. Could we see more on the position player side more this draft?
We had a couple of draft questions this week. I’m sure we will have more as the Draft gets closer, but I don’t see them altering their approach to try and fill needs. Every draft class is different, and a lot depends on who is available when you pick and of course how you choose to distribute your money. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go heavy on pitching again because that has been the trend for some time now.
