After a brief stop at home, the Atlanta Braves will head back out on the road Friday where they will begin a three-game series against the New York Mets. Some home cooking was just what the Braves needed after a rough road trip. Atlanta swept Boston in a two-game series and improved to 22-12 for the season. With the Phillies losing Wednesday, the Braves are now 2.0 games back in the NL East standings.
Atlanta’s offense showed some signs of life against a good Red Sox pitching staff and Marcell Ozuna has continued to carry the load. Ozuna had a go-ahead single in the eighth inning Tuesday night in a 4-2 win. He followed that up with a two-homer game Wednesday in support of Chris Sale as the Braves completed the sweep with a 5-0 victory. Ozuna leads the majors with 12 home runs and 38 RBI.
The Mets had their series finale in St. Louis postponed by rain Wednesday. They will come into Friday’s series opener with an 18-18 record, good for fourth place in the NL East. New York is 5-5 over their last 10 games and are 9-10 at Citi Field this season.
Pete Alonso had a double and hit his ninth home run of the season in Tuesday’s win over the Cardinals. That snapped a 1-for-29 stretch at the plate over his previous nine games. The Mets enter Thursday’s off day ranked 15th in runs scored and 14th with a 104 wRC+ as a team. Their pitching staff ranks 12th in the majors with a 3.72 ERA and are eighth with a 3.65 FIP. Overall, they’re 16th in position player fWAR and sixth in pitching fWAR.
This will be the second meeting between the two clubs this season. The Mets took two of three from Atlanta at Truist Park back in early April, which was the Braves’ first series loss of the year, and their only series loss before their 1-5 road trip out West. Brandon Nimmo and DJ Stewart led the way in the series with two homers each. Nimmo is on fire this season, with a .430 xwOBA so far; Francisco Lindor has also made his presence felt despite underhitting his xwOBA by a ton with some excellent defensive work so far. The series included an embarrassing 16-4 loss by Atlanta in the series finale. J.D. Martinez didn’t play in that earlier series, but returned to the active roster on April 26 and is hitting .297/.350/.351 with a 109 wRC+ over his first 12 games. The Mets will be without catcher Francisco Alvarez who is on the 10-day injured list with a torn ligament in his thumb.
Friday, May 10, 7:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Charlie Morton (2024: 6 GS, 36.0 IP, 22.9 K%, 9.0 BB%, 3.50 ERA, 3.73 FIP)
Charlie Morton will get the call for the Braves in Monday’s series opener. After a rough two-start stretch, Morton has rounded into shape over his last three outings. He is coming off a start in Los Angeles where he allowed two runs and struck out over six innings against the Dodgers. Over his last three starts, he has allowed four earned runs combined in 19 innings. Morton faced the Mets four times last season and had a 3.27 ERA, but a 4.53 FIP and 4.77 xFIP across 22 innings. He was also shellacked by them earlier this season in a pretty horrid outing where he had a 4/5 K/BB ratio and gave up a big homer to Nimmo the third time through.
Christian Scott (2024: 1 GS, 6.2 IP, 24.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 1.35 ERA, 1.79 FIP)
Rookie right-hander Christian Scott will get the start opposite Morton in Friday’s series opener. Scott is the Mets’ No. 2 overall prospect according to Baseball America. Scott was incredibly impressive in his major league debut, limiting the Rays to just one run over 6 2/3 innings while recording six strikeouts and walking just one batter.
Saturday, May 11, 4:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast, FS1)
Max Fried (7 GS, 38.1 IP, 20.4 K%, 8.9 BB%, 4.23 ERA, 4.08 FIP)
Max Fried will make his eighth start of the season in Saturday’s matchup. Fried kinda pitched well in his last start against the Dodgers but made two mistakes that were sent out of the ballpark, costing him four runs and really tanking his line. Those four runs are the only runs that he has allowed over his last three starts and 22 innings. Fried has a 2.65 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 3.29 xFIP in 102 career innings against New York. He made one start against them last year where he allowed three hits and struck out seven over five scoreless innings.
Luis Severino (7 GS, 40.0 IP, 21.9 K%, 10.1 BB%, 2.93 ERA, 3.37 FIP)
After struggling with injuries and his performance for most of 2019-2023, and especially last season, Luis Severino has enjoyed a nice bounceback campaign with the Mets in 2024. However, he is coming off a start where he was erratic, walking six and striking out six while allowing four runs in five innings against the Rays. He’s had a good run so far, with an FIP- below 100 in five of seven starts, and an xFIP- below 100 in four. He faced the Braves once last season and allowed three earned runs, including two homers, and struck out five in just four innings.
Sunday, May 12, 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Bryce Elder (3 GS, 15.1 IP, 14.5 K%, 11.6 BB%, 5.28 ERA, 6.34 FIP)
Bryce Elder will get another turn in Atlanta’s rotation in Sunday’s series finale and will be looking to bounce back after he was roughed up by the Dodgers. Elder allowed seven runs and surrendered three homers in just 3 1/3 innings of work last weekend in Los Angeles. He issued four more walks and has now walked eight over his last 8 2/3 innings. Elder made two starts against the Mets in 2023 and allowed five runs over 11 1/3 innings, with two homers and a combined 11/5 K/BB ratio.
Sean Manaea (7 GS, 35.1 IP, 20.4 K%, 12.5 BB%, 3.31 ERA, 3.54 FIP)
Another pitcher that has enjoyed a good start to the season with the Mets is lefty Sean Manaea. Manaea allowed three runs over six innings in his last start against the Cardinals. He has allowed just four runs over his last three starts combined across 15 2/3 innings, though this is largely driven by not allowing a homer, as his K/BB ratio over that span was a weak 10/9. In fact, he’s allowed just one homer all year. Manaea faced the Braves once last season while with the Giants and allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings and a 5/2 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed.
