After a 4-2 homestand, the Atlanta Braves will head back on the road for a six-game road trip that will begin Friday night with a three-game series against the Miami Marlins. The Braves are 7-4 on the season and currently hold a 1.5 game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East.
Despite being 7-4, everything isn’t rosy for Atlanta. The Braves swept the Diamondbacks to start the homestand, but had to overcome early deficits in each of the first two games of the series. They watched a 4-0 lead slip away in Monday’s series opener against the Mets. They jumped out to a 6-0 lead on Tuesday and then had to hang on tight for a 6-5 win. After a rainout on Wednesday, hey were blown out of the stadium Thursday in a 16-4 loss.
Against the Mets, Atlanta’s bullpen allowed 14 runs (11 earned) in 10 1/3 innings. That doesn’t include the four runs that Luis Guillorme allowed in the ninth inning Thursday. Tyler Matzek has allowed five runs combined in his last 1 2/3 innings.
Allan Winans started Thursday to give the rest of the rotation an extra day off and struggled, allowing six earned runs in five innings,although the defense behind him left a lot to be desired. The Braves will need a fifth starter on the road trip and remains to be seen whether it will be Winans or whether they will make a move for an extra reliever prior to Friday’s opener in Miami.
The Braves are expected to announce an update on injured starter Spencer Strider over the weekend. Strider was placed on the 10-day Injured List after an MRI revealed UCL damage in his right elbow. He traveled to Texas and was examined Monday by Dr. Keith Meister.
It has been a messy start for the Marlins who lost their first nine games of the season and come into Friday’s series opener with a 2-11 record. They did avoid a sweep Wednesday night with a 5-2 win over the Yankees in New York.
Miami knew that they’d be without former Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara due to Tommy John Surgery. They however, didn’t know that right-handed prospect Eury Perez would be joining him on the shelf. Perez underwent his own Tommy John Surgery earlier this week. Miami’s rotation is also currently without Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, as both are also on the Injured List with shoulder issues. It is no surprise that the Marlins currently rank 28th in ERA and FIP and are 29th in pitching fWAR.
The offense though hasn’t been any better, though after last year, maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise either. The Marlins rank 22nd in runs scored, but are dead last in the majors with a 60 wRC+ as a team. (The Braves further doomed them to last place by getting knocked around by the Mets) For context, that is 20 points worse than the Twins and Mariners who are tied for 28th with an 80 wRC+ as a team.
Nick Gordon, Jake Burger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are the only three hitters Miami has with a wRC+ above 100. Chisholm is hitting just .195/.340/.390 in his first 50 plate appearances. Josh Bell is off to a .188/.304/.271 start. Even Luis Arraez is struggling by his standards, hitting .250/.339/.327 with a 90 wRC+ over his first 13 games.
Friday, April 12, 7:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (2 GS, 5 IP, 18.8 K%, 12.5 BB%, 18.00 ERA, 5.81 FIP)
To say the start of the 2024 season has gone poorly for Fried would be an understatement. With Spencer Strider facing a lengthy absence, the Braves could use vintage Max Fried. Fried has struggled with his command over his first two starts, but was a missed strike call from perhaps escaping unscathed in his first start in Philadelphia. He was a mess again in his next outing allowing six runs in the first inning to Arizona and was lifted after allowing eight runs (seven earned) in 4 1/3 innings, though honestly that start was more ball-in-play shenanigans than an actual problem.
Fried has 12 career starts with a 4.94 ERA and 5.05 FIP (but a 3.41 xFIP) against the Marlins in his career. He allowed just one run over 11 innings in two starts against them in 2022 and didn’t face them last year due to all the time he missed with injury.
Trevor Rogers (2 GS, 10 IP, 18.4 K%, 14.3 BB%, 5.40 ERA, 3.51 FIP)
Rogers will make his third start of the season for Miami in the series opener Friday. He gave the Marlins a chance in his last outing where he allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings in St. Louis. Though the FIP looks pretty good, Rogers has seven walks and nine strikeouts over his first 10 innings, and is currently riding a career-worst 115 xFIP- (in all of two starts, mind). He has had poor results in his career against the Braves posting a 6.03 ERA in seven career starts and 31 1/3 innings, but his FIP (4.42) and xFIP (3.95) aren’t that far off from his career marks (3.50, 3.85).
Saturday, April 13, 4:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Chris Sale (2 GS, 10 2⁄3 IP, 31.0 K%, 4.8 BB%, 3.38 ERA, 2.83 FIP)
Lefty Chris Sale will get the start in Saturday’s matchup in Miami. The Braves have to be pleased with what they have gotten from Sale through two starts. He hasn’t been unhittable, but he has pitched into the sixth inning both times and has racked up 13 strikeouts against just two walks. Sale’s fastball is averaging right around 95 mph at this point. He will have an extra day of rest and keeping him healthy is an even bigger priority for the Braves in wake of Strider’s injury.
Max Meyer (2 GS, 11 IP, 17.1 K%, 7.3 BB%, 2.45 ERA, 5.12 FIP)
Max Meyer was the Marlins’ first round pick in 2020 and made his major league debut in 2022 before hurting his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery. Before the injury, he was regarded as a top pitching prospect. He began the 2024 season in Miami’s rotation and the results have been good so far, though he’s been super homer-prone (125 FIP-) and his peripherals have been fine rather than great (102 xFIP-). Meyer allowed two hits, two runs and two walks over five innings in his season debut against the Angels. He allowed three hits, one run and a walk in six innings against the Cardinals in his last start which was one of the Marlins’ two wins on the season heading into Thursday. Saturday will be Meyer’s first career appearance against the Braves.
Meyer has lived and breathed on the back of his hard-to-handle cutter/slider so far this year. The Braves will need to come in either ready to punish it when it finishes above the knees, or wait it out and punish his other pitches, which are far less impressive.
Sunday, April 14, 1:40 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Charlie Morton (2 GS, 11.1 IP, 21.3 K%, 14.9 BB%, 3.18 ERA, 4.71 FIP)
Charlie Morton will get the nod in the series finale Sunday and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing in his last start. Morton fired 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the White Sox in his season debut, but struggled with his command in his home debut against the Mets where he walked five while allowing four runs in 5 2/3 innings. Atlanta gifted him an early 4-0 lead, but would go on to lose 8-7. Morton has a 3.92 ERA, 3.32 FIP, and 3.45 xFIP in 24 career starts against the Marlins.
The Marlins are not a particularly righty-heavy lineup, so this is another chance for Morton to attempt to solve his thorny left-handed batter problem.
Jesus Luzardo (3 GS, 15.0 IP, 26.2 K%, 13.8 BB%, 7.20 ERA, 6.21 FIP)
Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo will also be seeking a bounce back in Sunday’s series finale. Luzardo was hit hard in his last start against the Yankees, where he allowed eight hits and seven runs, including a pair of homers, in 4 2/3 innings. He has good numbers in his career against the Braves, posting a 3.52 ERA, 2.98 FIP, and 3.65 xFIP while tallying 43 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings against Atlanta — those numbers are considerably better than his career marks.
Last year, Luzardo cruised to over 3.5 fWAR on the back of his disgusting, gyro spin-y slider, which he has excellent command of. This year, the pitch looks even nastier, gaining an almost screwball-like action. The trick for the Braves is probably going to be letting his four-seam fastball, which has extreme horizontal motion, drift into the zone against their right-handed bats, where they can punish it. If they don’t take advantage of those types of mistakes and he shows his usual slider proficiency, it could be a long afternoon for the offense.
