After avoiding a sweep in Seattle with a win Wednesday, the Atlanta Braves will continue their road trip Friday with a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It has been an unusual few weeks for the Braves, who have seen their offense sputter. They lost 2-1 in Monday’s opener against the Mariners and then dropped a 3-2 contest Tuesday. The offense broke out somewhat Wednesday with a four-run fourth to help them to a 5-2 win. Even more peculiar is the fact that the Braves haven’t homered in five straight games.
Despite their recent offensive struggles, Atlanta continues to win, and will bring a 20-9 record into this weekend’s series. Atlanta is 6-4 over its last 10 games and has gone 9-5 on the road so far. One reason the Braves have been able to keep their head above water recently has been their pitching staff, and particularly, their starting rotation. Since April 19, Atlanta’s starters rank second in the majors in innings, park-adjusted ERA, and park-adjusted xFIP (a few homers make their park-adjusted FIP “just” seventh). Max Fried has rounded into form while Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez have provided a much-needed boost, and Charlie Morton has been solid as well.
The Dodgers come into the series with a 20-13 record and a 4.5 game lead in the NL West standings. They are 8-2 over their last 10 games and appear to be hitting their stride. Mookie Betts’ transition to shortstop has gone well and he leads the majors with 2.8 fWAR in just 32 games. Los Angeles leads the majors in runs scored and are fifth in homers. They have by far the most fWAR in baseball as a team, which is perhaps only surprising insofar as they have more than the Braves. However, their pitching staff hasn’t really gotten going, and has been closer to pedestrian than good. While new additions Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been fantastic, and one-time Brave and current closer Evan Phillips has been lights out, they haven’t gotten all too much from anyone else.
Friday, May 3, 10:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Charlie Morton (2024: 5 GS, 30.0 IP, 23.3 K%, 9.2 BB%, 3.60 ERA, 3.46 FIP)
Charlie Morton will make his sixth start of the season in Friday’s series opener in Los Angeles. Morton has been up and down to start the season but is coming off his best start of the season, where he struck out six while tossing seven scoreless innings against the Cleveland Guardians. After allowing 10 runs over 11 1/3 innings, Morton has allowed just two runs combined over his last 13 innings. Morton faced the Dodgers twice last season and was hit hard, allowing 13 hits and eight runs over nine innings. He allowed two homers in one game, and had a weak 3/3 K/BB ratio in four innings of work in the other.
Gavin Stone (2024: 5 GS, 25.0 IP, 16.5 K%, 11.0 BB%, 4.68 ERA, 3.68 FIP)
Young righty Gavin Stone will get the call for the Dodgers in the opener. Stone will make his sixth start of the season for the Dodgers and is coming off an interesting start last time out. Stone held the Blue Jays to just two hits and one run over a season-high seven innings in his last start, but somehow managed to pitch those seven innings while striking out just two (and walking two). Stone has allowed just three runs over his last 10 1/3 innings but has seven walks and just three strikeouts over that span. In other words, he’s largely coasting on the fact that he’s allowed just a single homer to this point. Stone faced the Braves once last season and was tagged for five runs in just four innings… in a game the Braves still lost despite jumping ahead 4-0, as Charlie Morton gave up a go-ahead three-run homer to Freddie Freeman.
Saturday, May 4, 9:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Bryce Elder (2024: 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 12.2 K%, 8.2 BB%, 1.50 ERA, 3.66 FIP)
Bryce Elder will stick in the rotation for a third turn in Saturday’s game. Elder allowed eight hits, but no runs in 6 2/3 innings in his season debut against the Marlins. He wasn’t nearly as sharp in his next start against the Guardians but was able to battle his way around some command issues to give the Braves a chance to win. He allowed two runs over 5 1/3 innings but the line was fairly ugly, as he issued four walks after walking no one in his debut. Elder has pitched well against the Dodgers in his career, allowing just two runs in 12 innings across two starts. The Braves won both of those games, including a game in L.A. where Elder somehow got charged with just a single run despite a 4/4 K/BB ratio.
Tyler Glasnow (2024: 7 GS, 43.0 IP, 31.5 K%, 7.1 BB%, 2.72 ERA, 2.74 FIP)
The Braves will have their work cut out for them in Saturday’s matchup against Tyler Glasnow. The Dodgers acquired Glasnow in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays during the offseason and the move has paid off. Glasnow has already made seven starts and leads the majors with 53 strikeouts. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts. He’s allowed just one run and has 19 strikeouts over 14 innings in his last two starts combined. His season has been a mix of ridiculous outings, including a 14-strikeout, zero-walk game against the Twins and a 10-strikeout, zero-walk game against the Mets, and a couple of more pedestrian or problematic ones, but his aggregate line is insanely good right now. Glasnow faced the Braves once last season and allowed one earned run and struck out eight over 5 2/3 innings, but ended up on the losing side of a 2-1 game. That was his third career start against them, with the others coming in 2017 and 2020.
Sunday, May 5, 4:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Max Fried (2024: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 19.4 K%, 8.5 BB%, 4.02 ERA, 3.54 FIP)
Lefty Max Fried will get the start for Atlanta in the series finale. After a slow start to the season, Fried has rounded into shape quickly. He’s allowed four runs combined over his last 25 1/3 innings across four starts. He tossed a complete game shutout against the Marlins on the last homestand and then began the road trip with six no-hit innings in Seattle against the Mariners. Fried faced the Dodgers once last season, striking out 10 over seven scoreless innings. He has a 2.68 ERA, 2.62 FIP, and 2.44 xFIP in eight career regular season starts against his hometown Dodgers.
James Paxton (2024: 5 GS, 25.2 IP, 13.2 K%, 19.3 BB%, 3.51 ERA, 5.58 FIP)
Veteran lefty James Paxton will get the start opposite Fried in the series finale. Paxton comes into the game with a 3.51 ERA but has been walking the tightrope thanks to an elevated walk rate, which has given him some really bad peripherals. Over his last three starts, Paxton has walked 16 hitters in just 14 2/3 innings. That includes a start on April 14 where he walked eight over five innings against the Padres. Paxton walked five and allowed four runs over five innings in his last start in Arizona. Sunday’s game will be Paxton’s first career start against the Braves.
