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Counterintuition time: For the past five seasons, the Big Ten has routinely been one of the best leagues in the country, a raucous fistfight of a basketball conference … until March. Despite all its modern depth and strength, and more than a few cracks at the Final Four, the league is still waiting for its first national champ since all the way back in 2001.

So maybe this year, when almost everyone expects the league to be down, is the perfect time for the Big Ten to finally break through?!

Hey, why not? Then again: But who?

Two dominant storylines

No great teams?

Say what you want about the way any given Associated Press poll voter (over-)reacts to wins and losses in the week to week of the season — the preseason poll, borne of the educated guesswork of the crowd, tends to be pretty predictively solid. It doesn’t list a single Big Ten team in the top 10 to begin the season. Nor is the poll merely bearish; varied advanced metrics models (like Ken Pomeroy’s, Bart Torvik’s, and Evan Miyakawa’s) all share that consensus. It is hard to imagine the Big Ten being outright bad — it almost always has most of its teams in the top 70 for much of the year, and that doesn’t look likely to change — but that projected lack of any truly elite team at the top will be anathema to any league partisan (or league official).

The Big Ten badly wants a national title. Are any of these teams really good enough to win it?

Indiana is back. Indiana is back?

If you ask Trayce Jackson-Davis, then yes: At least one Big Ten team is good enough to win it. “The ceiling for our team is anywhere between Big Ten championship and national championship,” Jackson-Davis said in May, when he announced his return for his senior season, and the candy-striped hype hasn’t slowed down since. Indiana is the consensus league favorite, and you can understand why its fans are as excited as they’ve been in any preseason in the last decade: Jackson-Davis’ stardom, experience and cohesion at multiple positions, five-star talent coming in.

The only problem? This is many of the same personnel that couldn’t shoot 3s at all a year ago, broadly struggled offensively for big swaths of the season, and barely made the First Four in the end. It will take a major collective leap for this team to have a go at the Big Ten title, let alone the big chip. But the talent to do so is there.

Three players to watch

Hunter Dickinson, Michigan: The media’s preseason POY pick, for understandable reasons. Most years, in most leagues, Jackson-Davis would be the obvious selection, but Dickinson might end up being more important — or just plain better — as the gradually more versatile core of everything the Wolverines do well on offense.

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana: Jackson-Davis had his best, most efficient offensive season in Mike Woodson’s first year, benefitting from more space and more versatility in pick-and-roll situations; no longer is he pounding the ball in the post. If Indiana can now add some perimeter shooting, an already dominant player — and hugely improved defender, too — is going to have a lot of fun as a senior.

Zach Edey, Purdue: With respect to Iowa’s Kris Murray — whom many Iowa fans think is going to have a Keegan Murray-esque season — Edey deserves a nod here. It is a big test for the very big man: After starring in a timeshare with Trevion Williams, can the dominant 7-foot-4 center thrive on 30 minutes a night?

Top newcomer

Matthew Mayer, Illinois: Most of the league’s-best-newcomer energy has been focused on Mayer’s teammate, former Texas Tech guard Terrence Shannon Jr., and fair enough: Shannon is a really talented dude. But Mayer might have quietly been the best player in the transfer portal this season, an experienced 6-9 wing hybrid who should be a star from day one.

Coach who needs to win

Chris Collins, Northwestern: Throw a nod in Fred Hoiberg’s direction here, too, though Hoiberg’s buyout makes him a bit more resilient in Lincoln at the moment. Collins, though, is now entering his sixth season since Northwestern’s first and only NCAA Tournament bid — the good vibes of which have long since worn off.

Predicted league finish

1. Indiana: In a rebuilding league, call this a first-place vote by default. There are big questions here. Last year’s team is back, and the supporting cast — including a fantastic freshman class (Jalen Hood-Schifino, Malik Reneau, etc.) — is better. It’s a very simple calculus: If Indiana gets consistent perimeter shooting (from … somewhere? everywhere?) and consistent point guard play (from occasionally brain-neutral guard Xavier Johnson) this is the best team in this league, probably by some distance. If one or neither of those things happen, prepare for another just-OK winter on 17th Street.

2. Iowa: You have to hand it to Fran McCaffery: He always has at least one totally brilliant offensive player. Next man up is Kris Murray, brother of just-departed All-American and fourth overall pick Keegan Murray, who looks poised to replicate a healthy portion of his elder brother’s incredible 2021-22 outside-in offensive output. Iowa will score freely, same as it ever was.

3. Illinois: Losing 10 dudes is never easy, obviously, but building around two of the best 10 or so players in the 2021-22 Big 12 — Mayer and Shannon — is a very good place for a coach as good as Brad Underwood to start. This team will miss Kofi Cockburn, because duh, but what it will gain in switchability and versatility that could make it all the more ferocious defensively in the exchange. Big upside here.

4. Purdue: How many bigs can Matt Painter fit on the floor? The question is newly relevant this offseason, not because Painter is flirting with playing a Williams-Edey combo in the post (which never materialized last season, sadly) but because the Boilermakers, without Jaden Ivey, Sasha Stefanovic and Eric Hunter, somehow find themselves without clear options at a number of guard spots. The good news? Edey remains, and 6-6 stretch forward Mason Gillis can fill plenty of holes alongside him. Bet on Painter to figure out the rest.

5. Michigan State: Belief in this Michigan State squad is belief in the power of guards who instinctively understand what Tom Izzo demands of them — a state of brusque enlightenment both rising sophomore A.J. Hoggard and former Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker should, after last season, now be closer to achieving. But Izzo will likewise need big leaps from Malik Hall, Joey Hauser and sophomore wing Jaden Akins for this team to look meaningfully more dangerous than the one that was a No. 7 seed last season.

6. Michigan: Dickinson is back, which gives the Wolverines a performative baseline most teams would be thrilled to start from. He is more versatile these days, too, able to step away from the rim and open up the floor. But there are questions of the many new faces around him: Can Princeton transfer Jaelin Llewellyn lead a team on the ball in the Big Ten? Do the Wolverines have a second star? Or is this just Dickinson and a bunch of OK, unformed pieces around him?

7. Ohio State: This is a full reset. Stalwart star E.J. Liddell and surprise freshman Malaki Branham both left for the NBA, and with a score of other veteran players gone, Chris Holtmann will be relying on one notable returner (Zed Key), one exciting sophomore who missed last season with injury (Justice Sueing) and a host of transfers and top-75 freshmen. Sean McNeil (from West Virginia) and Isaac Likelele (from Oklahoma State) were both highly underrated gets in the portal who should give the Buckeyes shooting and positional flexibility as they figure out the rest.

8. Rutgers: Having lost Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker after two years of unusual relevance and unheard-of tourney inclusion, this should be the year the Scarlet Knights step back into obscurity. Except it probably won’t be: Cliff Omoruyi will be among the league’s best big men (yes, even in the Big Ten), while Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell retain serious experience and defensive nous in the backcourt. Imagine if Rutgers makes three straight tournaments. It could happen!

9. Wisconsin: Now that Johnny Davis is off to the NBA, does Wisconsin have a player who can, say, score 37 points on 13-of-24 shooting and grab 14 rebounds as a guard in a massive road win at Purdue? No. No, it does not. The Badgers rode Davis (and Brad Davison) hard last season, and to much success, but it stands to reason this year’s team will be a longer-term project, one based more around stylistic consistency and incremental improvement. We’ll see.

10. Penn State: The Nittany Lions were poster children for the top-to-bottom toughness of the Big Ten these days; they finished 12th in the conference standings but were still 14-17 overall with wins over Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers, Michigan State and Ohio State. Top scorers Jalen Pickett and Seth Lundy return, surrounded by a group of five freshmen and three transfers who should yield some very interesting, hard-nosed small-ball lineups — if not a lot of expected value at the frontcourt positions.

11. Maryland: If Maryland felt like a slow-moving disaster last season — not many teams lose a coach as early in the year as Maryland and Mark Turgeon parted ways — Kevin Willard’s first roster still has Donta Scott and Hakim Hart, two returning starters who have played key roles on quality teams during their time in College Park. Georgetown transfer Donald Carey didn’t win a game in the Big East last season, but he played (and specifically shot the ball) well enough to feel positive about excelling in a better overall structure at Maryland. And former Charlotte star Jahmir Young looks like a Big Ten quality point guard on paper.

12. Northwestern: That these are the rough expectations for Collins’ 2022-23 Wildcats tell you all you need to know about his chances of staying in this particular gig long term. Losing Ryan Young to Duke was bummer enough, but the loss of Pete Nance — an excellent two-way college player whom North Carolina will insert in its national title-contending starting five immediately — was a major blow. In a different era, NU would have brought back its top seven guys. As it is, Collins will lean on this team’s experienced backcourt, where Boo Buie and (apparently fully healthy) Chase Audige will have to take things up a notch (or several).

13. Minnesota: It’s the Dawson Garcia show! Or, well, that’s the idea, anyway; Garcia was supposed to be an important piece for North Carolina last season, but he left the team just as it transformed into a tight buzzsaw of a rotation. Minnesota is Garcia’s third school, albeit his hometown one, and the clock is starting to tick on the kid’s obvious talent. Putting him in pick and rolls with Jamison Battle should be fun, at the very least.

14. Nebraska: Hoiberg’s restructured contract helped Nebraska considerably; his buyout, now “just” $11 million, might be low enough for Nebraska to pull the trigger if the Cornhuskers continue to be the one obviously, genuinely, no-other-way-to-say-it-but-just-downright-bad team in the Big Ten. That outcome looks more likely than not, at least from this preseason vantage.

(Top photo of Trayce Jackson-Davis: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)