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The phenomena of group think is always fascinating to see unfold. An idea percolates, catches momentum, everyone latches onto it. Maybe it’s a certain political opinion. Maybe it’s a diet fad or workout scheme. Maybe it’s a drunken suggestion among a group of friends. We can make it to A.C. by 1 a.m.!

Typically, around this time every year, most Big Ten writers tumble into the same silo and have shared ideas of how the league will shape up in the year ahead.

But now, we’ve arrived at the 2022-23 season.

And the only thing uniform about Big Ten beat writers is their poorly fitting clothes.

This year’s Official/Unofficial Big Ten men’s basketball media poll is more scattershot than ever. A total lack of confidence seems to pervade this year’s picks. A week or two ago, one voter called me to voice his angst.

“Indiana isn’t actually going to win the league, right?”

That same voter ended up voting for the Hoosiers to, yes, win the league.

So it goes. Indiana, a year removed from barely making the NCAA Tournament, and sporting a roster that looks awfully familiar, is this year’s preseason favorite. Why? Because does anyone really feel comfortable picking a nearly entirely new Illinois team? Or Michigan, another overhauled roster? Purdue? Michigan State? Ohio State?

No one is quite sure what to think of any team. And it shows.

Michigan is picked as high as first and as low as seventh. Michigan State, from No. 2 to No. 8.

Ohio State is picked as high as fourth and as low as 10th.

Maryland drew three sixth-place votes and two 12th-place votes.

Illinois garnered six first-place votes, while also receiving four votes for fourth, one for fifth, one for eighth and one for 11th.

The only real uniformity in this year’s projections is the likely unfortunate fate of Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska.

And the beauty, really, is how all of this will inevitably be wrong.

Let’s remember last year.

Wisconsin was tabbed to finish 10th. Not a single voter picked the Badgers better than seventh, and they were projected as low as 12th. By year’s end? A 15-5 mark and a share of the conference crown.

Michigan was the league favorite with 13 of 28 first-place votes. The Wolverines ended up finishing in a seventh-place tie, going 11-9. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, finished third at 14-6.

Oh, and Maryland? The Terps were picked fifth. Every voter slotted them between fourth and eighth. Not quite how it played out, is it? Mark Turgeon’s tenure ended before league play began in December, and Maryland finished in a 10th-place tie with  Northwestern and Penn State.

But that’s the fun part. The point of laying this all out at this time of year is to paint a picture of expectations based on what each program presents. Then, let’s see what they do from here.

This poll is in its fifth year. Proudly so. What began as an act of defiance is now tradition. A huge thank you to friend and cohort Adam Jardy, who annually tackles half this nonsense. Wouldn’t be possible without him. Be sure to read his excellent work at The Columbus Dispatch.

And an even larger thank you to those writers out there who take the time to participate each year, even when we ask for more out of them — like this year’s inclusion of second team all-league selections and a Transfer of the Year prediction. We owe you all drinks come March in Chicago. Please see Adam to settle up.

OK, let’s get to this year’s results …

The official unofficial preseason Big Ten media poll

(first-place votes in parenthesis)

1. Indiana, 43 (19)
2. Illinois, 81 (6)
3. Michigan, 92 (1)
4. Michigan State, 139
5. Purdue, 141 (1)
6. Ohio State, 167
7. Iowa, 185 (1)
8. Rutgers, 218
9. Wisconsin, 229
10. Maryland, 267
11. Penn State, 304
12. Minnesota, 334
13. Northwestern, 362
14. Nebraska, 378

Player of the year

Hunter Dickinson, Michigan (14)

Also receiving votes: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana (13); Kris Murray, Iowa (1)

Freshman of the year

Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana (16)

Also receiving votes: Skyy Clark, Illinois (7); Fletcher Loyer, Purdue (1); Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State (1); Ty Rodgers, Illinois (1); Jett Howard, Michigan (1); Tre Holloman, Michigan State (1)

Transfer of the year

Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois (16)

Also receiving votes: Matthew Mayer, Illinois (4); Jahmir Young, Maryland (3); Jaelin Llewellyn, Michigan (3); Dawson Garcia, Minnesota (2)

First Team All-Big Ten

Hunter Dickinson, Michigan (56, unanimous)

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana (56, unanimous)

Zach Edey, Purdue (52)

Kris Murray, Iowa (49)

Cliff Omoruyi, Rutgers (30)

Second Team All-Big Ten

Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois (29)

Jamison Battle, Minnesota (24)

Xavier Johnson, Indiana (20)

Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin (15)

Tyler Wahl, Wisconsin (14)

Also receiving votes: Malik Hall, Michigan State (13); Jalen Pickett, Penn State (11); Matthew Mayer, Illinois; and Justice Sueing, Ohio State (9); Donta Scott, Maryland (8); Caleb McConnell, Rutgers (5); Patrick McCaffery, Iowa (3); AJ Hoggard, Michigan State;  Zed Key, Ohio State; Jaelin Llewellyn, Michigan; Paul Mulcahy, Rutgers; Race Thompson, Indiana; and Jahmir Young, Maryland (2); Boo Buie, Northwestern; Dawson Garcia, Minnesota; Coleman Hawkins, Illinois; RJ Melendez, Illinois; and Tyson Walker, Michigan State (1).

Note: Players received two points for a first-team vote and one point for a second-team vote.

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As for my poll and my picks, I dreaded making them just as much as everyone else involved. It’s tough to be confident when you feel like you’re second-guessing nearly every selection. But that’s the Big Ten this year. Here we go:

1. Illinois

Everyone agrees the league is wide open. Comically so. For that reason, I’m just going with the most on-paper talent here. That’s the Illini. Yes, Brad Underwood loses a ton, but Shannon, Mayer, Melendez, Hawkins and Clark might be the best top-five in the league. It might take time for the Illini to figure things out, and reliance on youthful depth will take a toll, but in the long run, I like Illinois.

2. Michigan

Dickinson is the Wolverines’ lone returning starter, but there’s a lot to like about transfer point guard Llewellyn and second-year guard Kobe Bufkin. The big concern is the defense. And a young roster. And if all the pieces fit. Damn, I’m slowly talking myself out of this …

3. Indiana

Yes, IU is widely considered the league favorite. It’s also essentially the same team that finished 48th in KenPom’s efficiency ratings last year. It’s the same team that needed an epic collapse from Michigan to reach the NCAA Tournament. It’s the same team that shot under 32 percent on 3s. There’s talent, though, led by Jackson-Davis, and the league’s best returning defense.

4. Michigan State

Similar to Illinois, it’s hard to argue with the quality of Michigan State’s core group: Hoggard, Walker, Jaden Akins, Hall and Joey Hauser. You at least know what you’re gonna get, and that’s more than most teams can say. Truth be told, I very nearly put the Spartans ahead of Indiana, but I don’t need the hate mail from Bloomington.

5. Purdue

How can Jaden Ivey be replaced? Can the defense improve? I don’t know the answer to either, but Zach Edey is Zach Edey, Matt Painter is Matt Painter, and I’m a big, big fan of both Mason Gillis and Caleb Furst. That’s enough for me to peg Purdue in the top five in a year when most teams have more questions than answers.

6. Maryland

In a year like this, you have to take a flier. Here’s mine. Maryland was never actually as bad as its 7-13 league record last season. It was simply a dumpster fire of a year after Mark Turgeon’s decampment. Now with a fresh start, the program brings back three pieces worth building around — Scott, Hakim Hart and Julian Reese — and brings in some enticing transfers, notably Young. Guess what, Kevin Willard has a nice roster with shooting, length and defensive versatility.

7. Iowa

The Kris Murray hype train is a bit concerning. His brother went from averaging 7.2 points and 5.1 rebounds to 23.5 and 8.7 per game. It’s unrealistic to expect Kris to do the same. But … yeah, he’ll probably be pretty damn good. I also love Patrick McCaffery’s potential and see him as a sleeper all-league pick. That said, my guess is Iowa finishes in the upper half of the league, makes the NCAA Tournament and misses the second weekend. Bold, I know.

8. Rutgers

Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker did an incredible job helping bring this program to a place of respectability. Now Omoruyi, Mulcahy and McConnell will pick things up and, I think, keep the program contending for an NCAA Tournament bid. Rutgers clearly lacks proven depth, but Steve Pikiell will keep dragging this place to respectability.

9. Ohio State

The good news for Ohio State fans is that others are higher on the Buckeyes, and I’m typically wrong. So, there’s that. But really, I see a roster of moderately interesting transfers around returnees Key and Sueing, neither of whom particularly pique my interest. Buckeye fans will respond to this by saying they bring in four top-75 freshmen. I’ll respond to that by asking what winning Big Ten program in recent years won playing four freshmen for extended minutes?

10. Wisconsin

There’s no way the Badgers finish this low, right? But as of now, this is a roster built around Hepburn (who I really like!) and Tyler Wahl and … Steven Crowl? Maybe those guys all take massive steps forward? Maybe Jordan Davis breaks out? Maybe a relatively ho-hum roster behind them all simply has Badger DNA and finds a way back to the NCAA Tournament? Maybe. For now, though, this is where Wisconsin belongs.

11. Penn State

I bought the Micah Shrewsberry stock early on when he landed in Happy Valley. I hope I’m right. But right now, this roster is Pickett, Seth Lundy, a handful of up-transfers and a John Harrar-sized hole in the frontcourt. This is where you can see the significant talent drop-off within the league ranking.

12. Minnesota

Ben Johnson basically had to throw a team together last year after getting hired and losing his entire roster to the portal. He at least put something respectable together. In Year 2, he has Battle and Garcia to build a rotation around, but I’m more interested in seeing the eight freshmen and sophomores on the floor. Here’s hoping Johnson builds Minnesota as a program, not a transfer portal outpost.

13. Nebraska

Fred Hoiberg has won nine Big Ten games in three years and, if everyone is being honest, Nebraska is a drag on the rest of the league. Something has to change here (no matter what the buyout is).

14. Northwestern

The Wildcats went 7-13 in the league and lost Pete Nance to North Carolina and Ryan Young to Duke. Chris Collins’ squad is now built around Boo Buie and Chase Audige. In reality, the questions surrounding Northwestern have nothing to do with this year’s results. Is this Collins’ job as long as he wants it or does there actually need to be something resembling winning?

Player of the Year

Hunter Dickinson, Michigan

Edey might be the most physically dominant player in the league. And Jackson-Davis might be the most enticing player in the league. But Dickinson will be the most statistically productive player out there. He’ll be shouldering a heavy load for Michigan. What he does with it will determine how far the Wolverines go and who lands this award.

Freshman of the Year

Skyy Clark, Illinois

The Illini have a lot of pieces to like but need to put the ball in someone’s hands. Clark is coming off a torn ACL, but is loaded with talent and is 6-foot-3. Here’s guessing he’s the impact lead guard this team desperately needs.

Transfer of the Year

Jaelin Llewellyn, Michigan

A player like Terrence Shannon Jr. could very well put up better scoring numbers and earn all-conference honors, while Llewellyn ends up as the most important newcomer in the league. He’s stepping into the two-man game with Dickinson and could very well be one of the better point guards in the league. The Princeton transfer averaged 15.7 points on 38.6 percent 3-point shooting a year ago.

First Team All-Big Ten

Hunter Dickinson

No-brainer pick, but how much better can Dickinson be? Can the defense continue to improve? Can he be a better leader? Be more consistent?

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

Can Indiana surround TJD with enough perimeter shooting to provide the spacing necessary to unleash all his talent? The concern is, no, it can’t, and Jackson-Davis will again have to be Herculean to provide what he can provide.

Zach Edey, Purdue

Can he play enough minutes to be the most dominant big in the league? In two years, his career-high is 27 minutes in a single game. His average is 17.1. Meanwhile, his per-40 stats are obscene: 30.3 points and 16.2 rebounds last season.

Kris Murray, Iowa

Is he really this good? Murray is being touted as a pro prospect on the same level of his brother. But can he produce enough numbers as a junior to carry the Hawkeyes?

Donta Scott, Maryland

Is this an insane pick? It is, at minimum, a wild guess. Some total outlier will finish first-team all-league this season. It will absolutely happen. Will it be Scott? No idea, but the senior from Philadelphia will be the centerpiece of a Maryland team that I think will surprise some people. So why not?

Second Team All-Big Ten

Cliff Omoruyi, Rutgers

Can he take a big stride forward to join Dickinson, Jackson-Davis and Edey in the best-big-in-the-league conversation?

Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois

Is he good enough to be the clear No. 1 or will the Illini be a hyper-balanced attack?

Malik Hall, Michigan State

Will the production be consistent? Hall was an all-league honorable mention selection last year, while splitting time with Joey Hauser and often playing as the Spartans’ third or fourth option at any given time.

Chucky Hepburn, Wisconsin

In a league that’s light on notable guards, Hepburn can distinguish himself among the best in the league. But can he take Wisconsin back to the NCAA Tournament?

Jaelin Llewellyn Michigan

A high-caliber player falling into a higher-profile role. I’ll buy the stock.

(Top photo of Mike Woodson, left, and Trayce Jackson-Davis: Trevor Ruszkowski / USA Today)