Has March Madness turned into March Meh-ness? For the first time since 2007, no No. 11 seed or higher made the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, 15 of 16 No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in the past two tournaments.
With the first two rounds low on drama and upsets, how did sportsbooks fare in the NCAA tournament last week?
“Thursday, Friday and Saturday we were doing just fine, but then Sunday was just a bad day,” said Johnny Avello, race and sports operations director at DraftKings. “Favorites went 7-1 on Sunday, and we couldn’t overcome the moneyline parlays even though we were still getting underdog money. I think bettors may have laid off the favorites if we had seen more upsets in the first three days. But when they saw that was the trend, that just added a little bit more fuel to the fire.”
Favorites finished 36-12 straight up over the first two rounds. They’ve also gone 26-22 against the spread, even though the 16 top-four seeds won their Round of 64 games by an average margin of 22.6 points. Will a second consecutive chalky tournament cause bettors to completely re-evaluate how they wager on March Madness?
“The masses gravitate toward the moneyline underdogs the first week just because they like seeing upsets and turning $10 into $50 or $100,” said Nick Bogdanovich, manager at Circa Sportsbook. “Even after how last year and this year went, I don’t think that will change next year. … If favorites dominating those rounds happens again for another year or two, then I think that will change.”
There are only two teams that pulled off outright upsets in each of their first two tournament games — No. 10 Arkansas (+5 vs. No. 7 Kansas, +6.5 vs. No. 2 St. John’s) and No. 6 Ole Miss (+1.5 vs. No. 11 North Carolina, +5.5 vs. No. 3 Iowa State).
While the Razorbacks are the worst seed left in the tournament, they don’t exactly fit the profile of a traditional Cinderella with their SEC pedigree and No. 16 ranking in the preseason AP Poll. Yet, the Razorbacks are underdogs once again on Thursday night when they go up against No. 3 Texas Tech. Arkansas is currently getting 5.5 points and sits at +190 on the moneyline against the Red Raiders at BetMGM. Many bettors are already enticed by the Hogs.
“I think Arkansas is going to be bet like a more traditional Cinderella in tournaments past just because you have John Calipari there,” said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars Sportsbook. “All the years that he was at Kentucky, he was extremely backed by the public. The Kansas game [in the first round] was split pretty evenly, but we saw a lot more bettors play Arkansas against St. John’s. I think it’ll be even more this week because Texas Tech isn’t a public team from what I’ve seen this year, even though they’ve looked really good. I would say Arkansas and Kentucky will attract the most underdog action in the Sweet 16.”
Others are also intrigued by Arkansas’ odds for the national title, which are currently the longest of any team remaining at 100-to-1. At the start of the tournament, the Razorbacks’ price to win it all was 300-to-1 and it dipped slightly to 250-to-1 ahead of their Round of 32 matchup with St. John’s.
One Caesars bettor in New York placed a $1,000 wager on Arkansas 500-to-1 before the tournament for a potential win of $500,000. Pikkit, an app that allows sports bettors to sync their sportsbook accounts, shared that Arkansas had the third-most bets (6%) among all national title futures bets it’s tracked since Saturday night — only behind Duke and Florida.
Arkansas is one of the record seven SEC teams that reached the Sweet 16, and the Razorbacks are certainly not the only ones from the conference generating strong betting interest.
“It’s really just been bettors backing SEC teams against other conferences throughout the season, and that hasn’t changed in the NCAA Tournament,” Berbert said. “Besides the Kentucky-Tennessee game — since two SEC teams are playing each other — any SEC team that ends up losing outright or doesn’t cover is definitely significant for us.
“Ole Miss was bet down from +4 to +3 against Michigan State. For BYU-Alabama, we opened Alabama -4.5, and it’s up to -5. It’s been all Florida money, and they’ve gone from -5 to -6.5 against Maryland. Auburn-Michigan has stayed at Auburn -8.5 so far, but I think we’re on our way to -9 pretty shortly.”
The two most lopsided Sweet 16 spread wagers at BetMGM in terms of handle are No. 1 Florida (-6.5 vs. No. 4 Maryland) with 89% of the money and No. 2 Alabama (-4.5 vs. No. 6 BYU) with 87% of the money. DraftKings is seeing similar popularity with those two SEC teams, as those are the only two Sweet 16 spreads to move multiple points from their openers — Florida -4.5 to -6.5 and Alabama -3.5 to -5.5.
“At 6.5, I think there will be more two-way action, but we’ll probably still need Maryland for the side,” Avello said. “Florida didn’t have one of their best games against Connecticut, but they really played well in the last couple of minutes. You’re going to have to overcome some adversity in this tournament; that usually has to happen with the top seeds. The Gators did it against a team that really showed up. Now, bettors feel that since they got by that tough game, Florida should be able to handle Maryland and sharps just felt the -4.5 was too cheap.”
Line moves, bad beats and parlay fun
• The Sweet 16 matchup between No. 6 BYU and No. 2 Alabama easily has the highest total of the NCAA tournament so far. It currently resides at 175.5 at DraftKings after opening at 171.5. It’s even higher at Circa, as it was bet up from 175 to 176.
“I don’t think that’ll be the last number; I think it will go even higher,” Bogdanovich said.
• The worst bad beat of the NCAA Tournament so far? That would belong to bettors who had under 150.5 points for UConn-Florida. The two teams had only combined for 136 points with 30 seconds remaining and then exploded for 16 more points before the final horn.
“It was a massive swing for us,” Berbert said. “Overall, we did really good on the game. It was the perfect scenario for us, with Florida winning and UConn covering. But the bettors that bet the over in that game definitely had their fun with that ending. That was one of our biggest decisions on totals out of all the games that day.”
FLORIDA DEFEATS THE 2-TIME DEFENDING CHAMPS 🐊@GatorsMBK IS HEADED TO THE #SWEET16 🔥#MarhcMadness pic.twitter.com/eOhDk2wekN
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 23, 2025
• One Caesars New York bettor nabbed a monster $145,816.32 payout on a 15-leg, $60 parlay. The closest call? Derik Queen’s dramatic buzzer-beater gave Maryland a 72-71 win over Colorado State and also allowed this bettor to squeak by one of those legs of over 142.5 points for that clash.
• Over in the women’s NCAA tournament, No. 1 seed USC suffered a brutal blow after superstar JuJu Watkins tore his ACL in the Trojans’ second-round win over Mississippi State on Monday night. USC entered the tournament with the fourth-lowest title odds at +550, but that price has risen up to +2500 (sixth-lowest) at most books.
• The No. 2 seed in USC’s region, UConn, is now the favorite to win the women’s tournament. UConn (+225) was just edged out by South Carolina (+220) for the top spot ahead of the second round. However, the Huskies are now leading the pack to win it all at +175. The defending champion Gamecocks are close behind, though, at +200, followed by UCLA (+650) and Texas (+750).
(Photo of D.J. Wagner: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
