The final road trip of the regular season is here, as the Atlanta Braves are set for six games on the road against a pair of teams who the Braves are clear ahead of in the standings right now. With that being said, this hasn’t been a guarantee of success for the Braves here in 2024 — Atlanta is 48-39 against teams over .500 but they’re only 33-30 against teams with a losing record so far this season. They’ve routinely found themselves in tough battles with teams that are’t exactly great and I don’t think anybody would be shocked if this road trip against the Reds and Marlins ended up being incredibly stressful to watch.
The Braves already have a recent reminder of what the Cincinnati Reds are capable of, as Atlanta saw them eight days ago and only mustered two hits against Cincinnati. As a matter of fact, Cincinnati’s pitching has been the one thing that has kept them from having a complete and utter nightmare of a season. They’re sporting a 93 ERA- and 97 FIP- as a collective — both of those numbers being either solidly in the top ten or right outside of it. While their xFIP- (105) suggests that there may be some good fortune going on here, the point remains that this is a tough team to deal with on the mound.
With that being said, the Braves may be in for a bit of good fortune as far as the pitching mathcups go. They won’t be seeing Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez or Andrew Abbott. They will, however, be facing a trio of pitchers who are dangerous in their own right. Combine that with Atlanta’s aforementioned record against teams under .500 plus the presence of Elly De La Cruz and you have a recipe for what’s probably going to be a nervy three days of baseball for the Braves.
Tuesday, September 17, 6:40 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
RHP Grant Holmes (4 GS, 54.2 IP, 91 ERA-, 78 FIP-, 23.7 K%, 4.8 BB%)
Grant Holmes has been pressed into starting duty following Reynaldo López’s trip to the IL and this was probably the simplest solution to filling López’s void in the rotation for the time being. Holmes has performed very well as part of Atlanta’s bullpen so far this season and he’s also been perfectly capable whenever he’s been called upon to make starts as well. He’s at least made it into the fifth inning in each of the four starts that he’s made so far this season and he even has a seven-inning start under his belt, to boot. Considering how this offense has performed in the past, I’m not super worried about Holmes being in trouble and as long as he continues to live up to the standard that he’s set this season, he should be fine.
LHP Brandon Williamson (2 GS, 13 IP, 91 ERA-, 100 FIP-, 20.1 K%, 6.0 BB%*)
Last season, Brandon Williamson was an integral part of Cincinnati’s rotation as a rookie. However, he started this season on the IL and after enduring a stint on the 60-day IL, he was finally activated to start the month. He’s made three appearances os far this season and he’s been slowly but surely improving over those three appearances. He made it into the fourth inning on September 1, he got into the fifth inning on September 6 and then he went a full five innings in his most recent outing. In each of those appearances, he only gave up one run and either three or one hits. In his two starts, he struck out five batters while he was out there.
So while Williamson isn’t coming into this game with a ton of experience, he definitely hasn’t looked bad at all since returning from injury. If he continues to improve and Atlanta suffers one of their power outages then this could be a long night at the plate if the perfect storm happens.
*Numbers are career averages
Wednesday, September 18, 6:40 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (18 GS, 103.2 IP, 89 ERA-, 84 FIP-, 26.7 K%, 4.7 BB%)
Schwellenbach’s last start went pretty well, as he was indeed able to bounce back from a rough start against the Blue Jays by going out and taking care of business against the Dodgers. The rookie hurler struck out six batters over six innings while only giving up four hits and two runs, which was more like what we’re used to seeing from Schwellenbach here in 2024. Considering how rough Cincinnati’s offense has looked at times and how consistent Schwellenbach has been, I’m anticipating that he’ll be able to get the job done and at least keep Atlanta in this particular game.
RHP Jakob Junis (4 GS, 56 IP, 64 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 19.5 K%, 3.3 BB%)
Junis is now on his fourth team in four seasons, as he’s gone from starting out with the Royals, spending two season with the Giants, starting this season with the Brewers before winding up with the Reds. Naturally, Junis has figured it out since arriving in Cincinnati and has been one of many reliable pitchers in Cincinnati’s pitching staff. He’s only made three starts recently but in those starts, he’s been a tough customer.
He threw four shutout innings against Oakland on August 27, he then pitched five shutout innings against the Mets on September 7 and then followed that up with five more innings where he only gave up one run against the Cardinals in his most recent start. He may not have a ton of innings or a long track record of success but the Reds are certainly getting some great production out of him at the moment.
Thursday, September 19, 1:10 pm E.T., Bally Sports South
LHP Chris Sale (28 GS, 172.2 IP, 56 ERA-, 51 FIP-, 32.2 K%, 5.4 BB%)
Folks, it’s Chris Sale. You know him by now. You love him by now. He’s facing a very weak offense in a game that the Braves are more-than-likely going to need very badly. Knowing the type of competitor that Sale is, it’s not going to be hugely shocking to see him go out there and make it happen for Atlanta in this one. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his starts since June 1 and it would be a really bad surprise if it happened on Thursday.
RHP Julian Aguiar (6 GS, 27.2 IP, 111 ERA-, 145 FIP-, 12.6 K%, 8.4 BB%)
The good news for the Braves is that they’ll be facing a pitcher on Thursday who doesn’t appear to be one of the many hidden bosses in this Cincinnati pitching staff. The bad news is that a lot of Aguiar’s bad numbers appear to be skewed by an absolute nightmare performance that he had against the Oakland A’s back on August 29. In that appearance, he only went four innings and gave up six runs and three homers in the process. Outside of that performance, though, the highly-rated prospect has been very solid and has a couple of starts under his belt where he’s made it through six.
In fact, he made it into the seventh inning in his most recent start on September 13 against the Twins. He went 6.1 innings and ended up with three eanred runs under his belt for the night. Get ready for a heavy dose of breaking balls, as he’ll be bringing sinker to the table and a changeup that can miss plenty of bats as well. While Aguiar hasn’t been completely dominant, this definitely feels like the type of game where the Braves could end up feeling mystified while Chris Sale deals and keeps them in the game. Atlanta could give this rookie a rude welcome like the A’s did but I think we all know that’s probably not going to happen, don’t we?
