Right after picking up a crucial series win over the Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves have no time to rest on their laurels. They’re right back at it starting tonight, as they embark on a three-game weekend series with their other divisional foes in the form of the Washington Nationals.
Washington will be coming into this series with a so-so record on the month as they’ve gone 9-10 so far here in August. Now granted, that puts them going step-for-step with the Braves (10-10 this month), Phillies (9-10 this month) and Mets (10-10 this month) so it’s not they can be looked down upon as an easy targe since nearly everybody in this division has been simply keeping themselves afloat so far this month. The Nationals will be coming into Cobb County feeling pretty good after they picked up a couple of convincing wins over the Rockies to win that series.
The Braves should especially be wary of Washington heading into this series since the Nationals have been smacking the Braves so far this season. The Nats lead the season series 6-2 so far, which includes a four-game series loss for the Braves at home all the way back in May and then another four-game series loss when they ran it back a week later in Washington. Atlanta just had an extremely difficult time keeping Washington off the scoreboard in either of those series. Charlie Morton in particular got tagged for 13 runs (12 earned) over 10.2 innings against this team, so of course fate would have it that he’ll be facing the Nationals once again in this upcoming series. Hopefully the third time’s the charm!
With that being said, Atlanta’s pitching has been much better lately when compared to back then and it would be very difficult to imagine them having a flop period like they did during those first eight games against the Nationals. Still, the Nationals are not a team to be trifled with (and really, no team is to be trifled with as long as the Braves are in their current state, but I digress) — their offense has been average in recent days but still capable of getting the job done on any given night (.267/.322/.418 as a team this month, with a .322 wOBA and 107 wRC+) with Luis Garcia Jr., James Wood, Alex Call and Keibert Ruiz leading the way for them recently. Their pitching (97 ERA-, 105 FIP-, 107 xFIP-) has been right around average as well. This isn’t a juggernaut by any means but they absolutely aren’t going to just roll over. If anything, they’ll be looking to pick up where they left off with the Braves earlier this season!
Friday, August 23, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Chris Sale (23 GS, 140.2 IP, 33.6 K%, 5.8 BB%, 2.62 ERA, 2.06 FIP)
At this point in the season, it’s really looking like the NL Cy Young Award is Chris Sale’s to lose. He has risen above the rest of the pack and is currently leading all of baseball in fWAR (5.1) among qualified starting pitchers. He’s second place in ERA- (63, only trailing AL Cy Young leader Tarik Skubal at 61), he’s first in FIP- (52, a full 12 points ahead of Skubal) and tied for first with Garrett Crochet when it comes to xFIP- (61). Plain and simple, Sale has been having a renaissance season. On top of all of that, he actually fared very well against the Nats earlier this season, so expectations should be pretty high for him to keep the good times rolling on Friday night.
MacKenzie Gore (25 GS, 125.2 IP, 23.8 K%, 9.5 BB%, 4.66 ERA, 3.62 FIP)
It’ll be a battle of each rotation’s top starter on Friday, as MacKenzie Gore will be making his third start against the Braves this season. The previous two went pretty well, as Gore only gave up four runs (two earned) against the Braves over 10.2 innings in those two starts. With that being said, a start like that would be a sight for sore eyes for Nats fans as Gore has not been doing particularly well as of late. He’s given up at least three runs in each of his last eight starts — including surrendering at least five runs in five of those starts. It would be disappointing if the Braves ended up being the tonic for Gore’s recent woes.
Saturday, August 24, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Charlie Morton (19 GS, 104.2 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.7 BB%, 2.06 ERA, 3.18 FIP)
As I mentioned before, Charlie Morton has had a very tough time dealing with the Nationals so far this season. He’s also had a bit of a feast-or-famine run in his most recent starts, where he’ll either get reasonably deep into a game and give the Braves a shot to win (both of his starts on the Western road trip and his start against Miami a couple of weeks ago) or he’ll get absolutely lit up (like in New York or against the Brewers). With that being said, here’s hoping that the version we’ve seen of Charlie Morton from his past couple of appearances is the one that we see on Saturday.
Jake Irvin (26 GS, 151.0 IP, 20.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.81 ERA, 4.30 FIP)
If the name “Jake Irvin” suddenly gives you flashbacks of some horrific baseball memories, it’s because this guy essentially turned the Braves into his sons back in late-May/early-June. Irvin made two starts against Atlanta, pitched six innings in each of them and didn’t give up a single run and struck out 14 batters along the way. It was complete and utter dominance on his part, though this is another case for Washington where they would be thrilled to see that type of performance from their starting pitcher again. Irvin didn’t fare particularly well against the Phillies in his last time out (he gave up three homers and four runs over six innings) and he’s given up at least four runs in three of his past four starts. Still, he’s been consistently getting deep into games so this is still a case where the Braves will have to be on their toes dealing with him.
Sunday, August 25, 12:05 p.m. ET (Roku (Yes, Roku))
Reynaldo López (20 GS, 109.2 IP, 25.1 K%, 8.5 BB%, 2.05 ERA, 3.02 FIP)
We really can’t talk enough about how much of a breakthrough this season has been for Reynaldo López. After his start against the Phillies earlier this week pushed him to 2.7 fWAR on the season, he has now officially cleared his career-high season of 2.4 fWAR back in 2019 and he’s essentially in the bonus rounds at this point. Like Sale, López is also one of the rare Atlanta starters who has had success against the Nationals this season as he went six innings and only gave up two runs in a 5-2 win over Washington back in June. Hopefully he’ll pick up where he left off against them last time and maybe even top that performance as well.
DJ Herz (13 GS, 60.2 IP, 28.3 K%, 7.9 BB%, 4.15 ERA, 3.97 FIP)
The first thing that jumps out about Herz is his strikeout percentage. While he only struck out five Braves hitters over 4.1 innings when he saw them back in June, he does have two starts this season where he’s hit double-digits in strikeouts. In fact, he racked up 13 of them in his start against the Marlins immediately following his start against the Braves. He’s shown a knack for getting swings-and-misses with his four-seamer, so it would be safe to assume that he’s going to deliver a healthy portion of those on Sunday afternoon. Herz has been pretty consistent for Washington right now and if Atlanta gets more than two runs on him while he’s out there then they’ll be doing pretty good against this fella.
