Michigan State and Kentucky are familiar with one another on this stage. Tuesday at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse marks the fourth time the Spartans and Wildcats meet in the Champions Classic, though it will be the first meeting between the programs since 2019.
There’s been plenty of player turnover since that last contest as top-flight recruiting classes come and go, but the coaches leading the programs remain the same: John Calipari at UK and Tom Izzo at MSU.
Calipari’s squad has swept through an easy slate so far to cover spreads of 19 and 25 points against Duquesne and Howard, respectively, in advance of its first test. Meanwhile, Izzo’s team rang in the season with a commanding win in East Lansing—although they didn’t cover the 21-point line versus Northern Arizona—and then gave No. 2 Gonzaga all it could handle in a 64-63 loss as 12-point underdog.
Michigan State (1-1) vs. No. 4 Kentucky (2-0)
Time: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Michigan State +7 (-110) | Kentucky -7 (-110)
Moneyline: Michigan State (+240) | Iowa (-333)
Total: 141.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
The Wildcats have the No. 1 ranking on KenPom with the third-ranked offense and second-best grade on defense. Leading that charge is Antonio Reeves, a senior transfer from Illinois State who’s good for 20 PPG on excellent shooting. As a team, Kentucky shoots better than 50% from the field and 50% from three. Its only real weakness has been from the free-throw line, where it converts at a 60% clip.
Beyond that, the whole roster rebounds well and distributes the ball, especially Sahvir Wheeler who dished 11 dimes in his season debut Friday. And UK has looked this good without Oscar Tshiebwe, the reigning national player of the year, who’s still recovering from an offseason knee procedure and is expected to be active Tuesday.
KenPom is not as high on MSU. The Spartans rank 27th overall and their No. 25 defense is pulling up its 36th-ranked offense. Only A.J. Hoggard and Joey Hauser average double-digit points and the team shoots below 43% from the field, 28% from three and 67% from the free-throw line.
It’s been a bit of a rough go on offense, but the defense held Gonzaga to 64 points after it hung 104 on North Florida in its opener. (It should be noted the Michigan State-Gonzaga game was played outdoors on the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier.) The Spartans have not been strong on the glass so far and the Wildcats’ advantage inside will only be accentuated if Tshiebwe, who pulled in more than 15 rebounds per game last year, is able to go.
With so many scoring options, Kentucky is still going to get its points on Michigan State. Five players have been good for 10-plus points so far and again, that’s without the team’s best player taking the floor yet. The Spartans are a stout defensive operation but that only goes so far if the offense isn’t able to keep pace with UK.
The outside shooting edge will matter in this matchup and it’s not like the Wildcats don’t pull their weight on defense, so the Spartans offense—which didn’t necessarily dominate against Northern Arizona—has a formidable challenge in front of it. For those reasons, along with the potential return of Tshiebwe, I like Kentucky to score its third consecutive win against Michigan State in a low-scoring contest.
Best Bets: Kentucky -7 (-110), Under 141.5 (-110)
