I decided to field some questions on X (Twitter) about the Rays and respond to them in a mailbag format article. This edition covers the improvements the Rays have made this season, the decisions facing the Rays in this year’s draft, and what the trade deadline could look like for the team.
Jack McGovern (@jackmcgovern14): Outside of contact rates, pitch usage trends, and the power of friendship, what is the thing that has stood out to you as the biggest difference maker between the 2025 and 2026 Rays?
Run prevention has been the difference maker this season. The team ERA is nearly half a run lower than in 2025 despite similar FIP and xFIP numbers. Some of this can be attributed to being back at the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field, but a bigger piece may be the defense. The 2026 Rays are converting batted balls into outs more than any other Rays team in the last 15 years. They’re turning batted balls into outs 69.6% of the time while last year it was only 66.8%. That may not sound significant, but over a full season it projects to roughly 120-130 fewer hits allowed than in 2025. That’s nearly five more games’ worth of outs.
Houston (@HoustonBohde): How would you rank Cholowsky, Emerson, and Lackey and their fit within the Rays system?
Sad Rays Fan (@rays4403): What do you think the Rays do at 1.02 and can you break down the profiles of the favorites to be available for the Rays (Lackey and Emerson)?
I’m grouping these two together because they’re related. Roch Cholowsky is the best player available in the draft and he’s in a tier of his own. I’d be surprised if the White Sox did not pick him, and there’s no need to try to get creative with bonus pool money when you’re picking at the top and there’s a clear choice. For me, Grady Emerson is the second-best player available, and then it’s a toss-up between Vahn Lackey and Jackson Flora. Teams don’t draft based on need or fit – especially in the first round. I expect the Rays to take Emerson, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they went with Lackey or Flora at an underslot deal to land an overslot deal with their comp pick at 33.
Roch has a high upside with above average tools across the board and he plays a plus shortstop. His collegiate track record gives him a relatively high floor. This combination is what makes him a clear number one pick.
Emerson has a fairly similar profile with above average tools across the board, but the power isn’t fully present yet because he’s still a teenager. The hit tool is special though, so he has the highest floor of any high school player in this class and maybe even last year’s class. The inherent risk that comes with picking a teenager is what puts him just behind Roch.
Lackey has been on a rocket ship all year and looks comfortably in the next tier behind Roch and Emerson. He’s a solid receiver with an above average arm, and he should continue to develop into a plus defender thanks to these traits along with his athleticism. He’ll have a bit of hit tool risk, but he hedges that with a disciplined approach that allows him to get into his plus power. The difference in hit tool is what separates Lackey from Emerson for me.
Flora is a big, physical righty with a pair of plus pitches in his mid-to-upper 90s fastball with solid shape from his slot and a hard, upper 80s cut-slider he can throw to both sides of the plate. His feel for spin and emerging offspeed pitch give him a deep arsenal, and his control gives him a strong chance to remain a starter at the next level. There will always be more questions with pitchers coming out of the draft given the greater injury risk and the differences between the college, minor league, and MLB baseballs, but Flora profiles as at least a mid-rotation starter with room for more as he develops his secondary pitches.
Sean Smyth (@Sean_SmythTBR): Given their current performance, what does a realistic trade deadline look like for the Rays?
The Rays always look to thread the needle between buyers and sellers. Emptying the farm for a rental doesn’t align with their philosophy, but they do have quite a bit of shuffling to do with the relatively high number of Rule 5 eligible players this year. Not all of them will need protection, but I do expect them to consolidate some prospects for some major league talent to reinforce the roster.
They’ll likely target both rental pitchers and controllable arms beyond 2026. I don’t expect any major changes to the position player group other than maybe some depth at middle infield. I think we’ll see them package some prospects for a starting pitcher and potentially a reliever depending on how Rodriguez, Uceta, and Wilson progress in their return from injury. Much of the deadline market may depend on which teams commit to selling first; nearly one-third of the league is hovering within three games of .500.
