The Dynasty Nerds crew is back with their annual “repeat rate” deep dive, breaking down how often elite fantasy finishes actually repeat year to year and what that means for building dynasty rosters. Rich Dotson, Matt O’Hara, and Garret Price walk through the biggest shifts in the data, with the running back position showing the most meaningful change.
Google sheets for data:
RBs:
QBs:
TEs:
Listen to This Episode:
Running backs are changing the dynasty math
The headline is the pivot at RB. Historically, most top 12 RB seasons were one and done, but now only 43.75% of RB1 seasons are single year hits, meaning 56% plus repeat. Even wilder, about 40.6% of RB1 seasons come from backs who eventually log three or more RB1 years. That shift strengthens the case for locking in young cornerstone backs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, who already have three RB1 seasons in three years, while Kyren Williams keeps beating the “other shoe” narrative by repeating without elite peak finishes.
Quarterbacks still separate championships
At QB, Josh Allen is in historic territory with seven top six seasons in eight years, and a massive top three hit rate. The show also notes how rare four top six seasons are, which keeps Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott in elite company even when real life value and fantasy value diverge.
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