It’s no surprise the Rays’ offense struggled against left-handed pitching last season. They produced an 85 wRC+ which was the 9th worst of any team in the league. That issue was compounded by volume as Rays hitters saw more left-handed pitching than almost any team in baseball; Rays batters had 1,860 PA vs LHP, second only to the Phillies at 1,946.
So naturally, their Opening Day matchup comes against a lefty – former Rays prospect Matthew Liberatore. Can the Rays improve vs LHP compared to last season? What could their lineup look like on Opening Day?
We’ll first look at several industry standard key performance indicators (KPIs) for the Rays offense last season and compare it to what we’ve seen from the position players projected to be on the Opening Day roster: zone minus out-of-zone swing rate to measure plate discipline, contact rate to measure bat-to-ball ability, 90th percentile exit velocity to measure raw power, and line drive plus fly ball rate to measure how well they hit the ball at optimal launch angles:
The swing decisions, bat-to-ball ability, and batted ball quality all have taken a step forward with this new position player group while still maintaining average power. We still have to wait to see how it’ll translate to regular season games in a larger sample, but the underlying indicators suggest they have a much stronger foundation than the group that produced an 85 wRC+ last season. If these gains carry over, it’s reasonable to expect something closer to the 100-105 wRC+ range.
There were times last season where Cash deployed lineups of all RHB against opposing left-handed starters. This seems like a logical idea on paper, but old-school baseball wisdom says that this allows an opposing pitcher to get into a rhythm. Later in the season, the Rays sprinkled a couple more lefties in their lineups against LHP. Those lineups appeared more effective, even if it’s difficult to quantify. I think we’ll see that (at least early on) in the regular season. Here’s how it could look vs Liberatore on Opening Day:
The order outside of the top five is more flexible and maybe DeLuca and Mullins take turns in CF, but this is what we could expect on Opening Day and against most LHP.
Simpson has a platoon-neutral skillset so there’s a world where I could see him batting leadoff regularly to provide a bit more length and drop Yandy and Cami into more run-producing spots in the order. However, the defensive value Mullins provides may still give him the edge early on, potentially keeping Simpson in a more limited role until his defense proves itself over a larger sample.
If they prioritize Simpson’s speed and contact ability, a more left-handed look could resemble something like:
Simpson could also be 9th and everyone else moves up a spot. There’s a lot of potential for flexibility, but no matter how it shapes up, this offense appears much better positioned to improve against left-handed pitching than it was a year ago. That flexibility also aligns with the improved swing decisions, contact rates, and batted ball quality we’ve seen this spring, giving the Rays multiple ways to construct competitive lineups against left-handed pitching.
