The last couple years, when I was on the Two Start Pitcher beat, I broke each week’s rankings down into tiers based on various types of cookies. It may have been a silly schtick, but as someone who takes his baking fairly seriously, it was fitting to me. Last week, in this space, as I started positional rankings, there was no need for such a gimmick. It was pretty straightforward doing groups of about 15 guys per position. This week, however, is the outfield. (I think I said last week it would be outfield and relief pitchers. I changed my mind. Sorry.) And the outfield is a different beast. Because if I just gave you 15 names and called it a day, that might get you all the way to round 3 of your draft, and what’s the use in that? So, for today only(?) we bring back the baking-based rankings! Sorry, not sorry.
As we go, I won’t be adding comments to every player. Grey has already done that for you, and with much more panache than I ever could. What I will do is occasionally note how someone’s value varies depending on scoring type or otherwise opine on them if I feel like it.
Eclairs
They’re like donuts, but better. For me, there’s no pastry that can beat the light and crispy choux bun, filled with pastry cream and coated in glossy chocolate. And there’s no beating these guys when it comes to filling your outfield slots.
| Aaron Judge | NYY |
| Juan Soto | NYM |
| Ronald Acuña | ATL |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD |
| Fernando Tatis, Jr. | SD |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU |
| Corbin Carroll | ARI |
| Brent Rooker | OAK |
| Jackson Chourio | MIL |
- Schwarber may or may not have OF eligibility depending on your site/league rules. He’s well-worth drafting if he’s Utility-only. If he does have an OF next to his name? Giddy up.
- Alvarez likewise is one you’ll want to double check if he qualifies here or not. He also isn’t renowned for his durability. But when he’s healthy, he hits. He hits a lot, and he hits with authority. That makes him valuable.
- Carroll is currently rehabbing after hamate bone surgery. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned at all about how that affects him, particularly in terms of his power when he first returns. In a league where steals only count for 1 point, I would probably lower him a couple of spots.
Croissants
They’re flaky, buttery, and just generally delicious. Who doesn’t love a good croissant? The problem is, sometimes the layers don’t laminate, things conspire against you, and they aren’t so flaky or soft. Then you’re just left with bread. Which is still good. You were just hoping for something better.
These guys are good. Potentially great. But there’s enough risk about things going wrong that they’re not in that upper tier.
| Wyatt Langford | TEX |
| James Wood | WSH |
| Roman Anthony | BOS |
| Jackson Merrill | SD |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CHC |
| Cody Bellinger | NYY |
| George Springer | TOR |
| Randy Arozarena | SEA |
| Jarren Duran | BOS |
| Byron Buxton | MIN |
| Jose Altuve | HOU |
| Seiya Suzuki | CHC |
| Brandon Nimmo | TEX |
| Riley Greene | DET |
- Did I fudge things slightly to get all these young guys in a row? Possibly. But this range is bunched close enough together that it’s really a pick your favorite type thing. These five all have questions. Can Langford stay healthy? Were the second half drop-offs for PCA and Wood blips and growing pains, or harbingers of future struggles? Anthony has the prospect pedigree, and a profile that lends itself to points league success, but such a tiny sample size of actual success. And to what extent were Merrill’s struggles last year due to a concussion and other injury? If you have a definitive answer for any of those, you could probably make some good money selling subscriptions to your newsletter. But as for me? I’ll take any of them. Except PCA, unless he really falls. I’m with Grey on that one.
Turnovers
Turnovers are solid. They’re not my favorite, or something I generally go out of my way to find, but they do the job. And sometimes they surprise, either positively by being fresh and full of fruity goodness, or negatively by being dry and stale and hiding a flavor you’d rather avoid.
These guys are solid. They’re not your first options, but if you pass on them entirely, you’ll probably end up regretting it.
| Steven Kwan | CLE |
| Tyler Soderstrom | ATH |
| Ian Happ | CHC |
| Taylor Ward | BAL |
| Teoscar Hernandez | LAD |
| Michael Harris II | ATL |
| Bryan Reynolds | PIT |
| Jakob Marsee | MIA |
| Mike Trout | LAA |
| Jo Adell | LAA |
| Andy Pages | LAD |
| Alec Burleson | STL |
| Sal Frelick | MIL |
| Jung-Hoo Lee | SF |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA |
| Noelvi Marte | CIN |
| Daylen Lile | WSH |
| Daulton Varsho | TOR |
- Kwan is amongst the most scoring system-dependent players of all. In roto, he’s very much the guy you settle for since he’s pretty middling in power and speed. In points leagues, he’s much more appealing, as his all-around game typically elevates his value into roughly the top-25. But if you play in a league that penalizes a full point for strikeouts? Well, go ahead and guess where he finished amongst outfielders on ESPN last year. Did you guess 10th? Because he was 10th! I can’t in good conscience rank him there, but be aware that if you’re in one of those leagues, he should probably slot in at the very end of that first tier.
- Happ is so boring. But he produces. Draft him, set him in your lineup, and don’t think about him again the rest of the season.
Macarons
Some people really love them. They seem so fancy. The flavors sound so appealing! But to me, they’re “meh.” And when it comes to making them? They’re not even close to being worth the amount of effort and headache relative to the payoff. And for this exercise, that’s what matters.
These guys have (or had) things about them that are (or were) incredibly appealing. But I have serious doubts about the actual payoff. If you find yourself drawn to them, I get it. But for me, they aren’t worth the frustration.
| Oneil Cruz | PIT |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS |
| Luis Robert Jr. | NYM |
| Chandler Simpson | TB |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET |
| Dylan Crews | WSH |
| Lawrence Butler | ATH |
- I am out on Oneil Cruz. Maybe I end up looking like an idiot because of it. It wouldn’t be the first time. After all, he does still have elite speed and hits the ball hard when he manages to make contact. The issue is, he only hit .200 last year. That’s hard to make up for in roto. And in points leagues? His lack of contact is brutal. Do you know where he finished among OF in ESPN leagues last year? No, not 10th. He finished 66th! He’s the anti-Steven Kwan. You take the gamble if you want. I’m out.
- I actually kind of like Rafaela as a player. But for fantasy, the metrics are not what you want to see. Maybe he overperforms literally all of them for a second year in a row, but this ranking is a bet against it.
- Do you really want to be the one who takes the bet that the Mets will figure out how to keep Luis Robert healthy and fix his broken bat?
- Chandler Simpson: Potentially excellent roto player. Potentially middling points league player. He’s a lot of fun to watch, though.
- If you play with daily lineups with decent benches and like being incredibly hands-on, Carpenter actually isn’t a bad option at all. The issue is that he doesn’t play against lefties because he can’t hit them at all. So if you play in a weekly league, or have smaller rosters, he becomes a lot less appealing.
Scones
It’s not that I dislike scones. They aren’t bad by any means. They’re just not particularly exciting.
These guys aren’t bad. Some of them could, and probably will, end up being very useful. They’re just not particularly exciting.
| Ramon Laureano | SD |
| Jac Caglianone | KC |
| Trent Grisham | NYY |
| Brenton Doyle | COL |
| Wilyer Abreu | BOS |
| Addison Barger | TOR |
| Heliot Ramos | SF |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE |
| Owen Caissie | MIA |
| TJ Friedl | CIN |
| Adolis Garcia | PHI |
| Carson Benge | NYM |
| Mickey Moniak | COL |
| Ryan O’Hearn | PIT |
| Justin Crawford | PHI |
- Ok, so Jac could actually be very exciting. He just didn’t fit particularly well in any of the other tiers. I’m keeping an eye on him the rest of spring, for sure.
- Now that I’m here, I realize the name/theme of this tier might not be entirely accurate, because all these young rookies could provide great returns. But they’re far from sure things. They might not even be worth drafting right now, depending on your league and roster size. But if you want to go ahead and take one as a treat, I get it.
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