OK folks, it’s March and draft season is in full swing. Yay! Well, not so yay if you recently drafted Hunter Greene as I did and are currently reading about the fact that he’s on his way to see Dr. Kremchek AND Dr. ElAttrache as I type this. Like, they already scheduled the second opinion before they got the first opinion? And that’s not gonna raise a red flag or two? Ugh. Let’s hope that by the time you read this, we’ve heard best case scenario news, but I’m certainly not holding my breath. This is just another reminder that us early drafters should probably be paying more attention to those of you who don’t even consider drafting until mid March to avoid just these types of situations. And don’t get me started on Profar, though at least I dodged that bullet this year.
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Okay, time to move forward, as I’m sure many of us are in the thick of preparation, whether it’s for the start of RCL draft season (woo hoo!) or getting ready for our own NL-only, AL-only, or other deeper league drafts or auctions. This week we’ll take another look at players whose value has been rising, but are still in our RITD deep-league realm, namely outside the top 300 players being drafted overall. I’m not even going to list their current ranking based on NFBC ADP though, because I think seeing that number may do us more harm than good. As is always true of our use of ADP in the first place, this exercise is less about telling you who you should target, and more about realizing that just looking at a guy’s ADP can lead to trouble for players who the fantasy community is higher on now than they were months ago, when so many of the drafts that are factored in to current ADP were taking place. If any of the following players are on your wish list, you may want to bump them up a bit as they all seem to be gaining at least some traction from the draft community as a whole.
Okay, on to some risers who, for the moment at least, are still outside the top 300:
Luisangel Acuna. Acuna’s had one of the biggest ADP jumps of any hitter lately, fueled of course, by what I think we’re all assuming will be an everyday gig with the White Sox. Whatever his playing time situation is, it’s gotta be better than the roster-bubble purgatory he’d have been faced with on the Mets. The market’s still settling here though, as he has a low pick of 446 and a high of 274 just over the last week. I’m not buying in as a guy I’d need to rely on since I just don’t know if the bat skills will ever translate to MLB success. But even at a price that’s inflated compared to what it was at the beginning of draft season, this could end up being a decent, cheap speed grab if nothing else.
Reynaldo Lopez. I don’t think anyone was expecting Lopez to be looking like one of the Braves healthiest starting pitchers the first week of March, but here we are. He’s gotten ADP-boosted both by the other Atlanta pitching injuries (as has Grant Holmes, who is much scarier than Lopez to me, even in very deep leagues). Lopez is likely in the middle of another perhaps fairly significant boost now that he’s made a spring training appearance or two, and so far, so good. In my first draft back in November I got him at the now-bargain price of pick 425. If I want to roster him again, he’ll no doubt be more expensive than that; he’s gone as high as pick 239 in the last week.
Max Meyer. I think just seeing Meyer on a mound and healthy this spring caused many to shoot him up their draft boards upon remembering how excited many of us were about him before he got hurt last year. I feel like every year for the last several, there have been a couple Marlins pitchers that really, really seemed poised to break out in a big way, and that they should have compiled a rotation of five all stars by now. That’s not quite how it’s gone, but hope springs eternal, and I can see Meyer’s stock rising quickly as we get closer to opening day.
Jose Berrios. Guessing a large number of Razzball faithful have their own bad memories over a past relationship with Berrios; I know I do. Sounds like the fantasy community is starting to forgive and forget, as his ADP has been on the upswing to some degree of late. This is due, I’m sure, to reports of full health and increased velocity this spring. Those are about the two best things you can hear about a pitcher at this time of year, so maybe a huge bounce back isn’t out of the question. It will pain me if that happens and I’m on the outside looking in, but it’d be hard for me to pull the trigger here, even late.
Will Warren. I took Warren with the 360th pick of an NFBC draft I did about six weeks ago, and even though I hadn’t planned on taking a pitcher at that spot, I couldn’t resist him there. Not much risk if things don’t pan out, but plenty of potential upside to take a shot, I think. He’s gone as high as pick 242 in the last week of NFBC drafts (all formats combined, which is a total of 35 drafts), and it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a little continued helium here.
Tyler Mahle. I’m guessing if anything is fueling this rise, it’s largely just folks realizing that after a certain point in a draft, Mahle is as good a dart throw as any if you’re looking for starting pitching depth. His stats in the 86.2 innings he pitched last year were the definition of too good to be true, but San Francisco feels like a pretty good landing place for him. With any semblance of health and consistency, he could be a decent value late.
Jett Williams. Williams had a little ADP spike right after he was traded from the Mets to the Brewers. Things have leveled out again for now as we see even his high pick of late was well outside the top 400. Not surprising, since we really have no idea what the Brewers are thinking in terms of his timetable, plus he’s been slowed early in camp with a bad quad. I think it’s too early to tell if Williams will be a legitimate fantasy factor for re-draft leagues this year, but he’s a guy whose stock could go up in a hurry if things break right both with his health and the Brewers depth chart.
That’s it for this week; as always, thanks for reading and happy drafting!
