Hesitant to say any pitcher was overrated for reasons. One big reason is in my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings, where it has the starter rankings, it says pretty clearly which pitchers to avoid and which pitchers to draft, so by writing that you’d — I’d, at least — would hope that you’d understand which pitchers to avoid, but here we are, because Yoshinobu Yamamoto is being drafted way too high and also illustrates a larger problem with starters that is fun (for me, at least) to explore for 750-ish words. (We’ll see how many side notes we have. One to three side notes and it’ll be 750 words; four to seven side notes and it’ll push 1,000 words. Yes, this is one side note about side notes.) Currently, at NFBC Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s ADP is 27. I’m sorry, that’s batshizz. Can we just pretend it’s 2025’s preseason again for a second? His ADP last year was 66. He went as early as 38 and as late as 104. This is info provided by VinWins for our RCL leagues — sign up now! It’s free. — so it’s not quite apples to apples. I am comparing NFBC ADP to RCL ADP, but it’s not that different. I drafted Yoshinobu Yamamoto in leagues last year, happily, tee be aitch. So, what has changed? This is gonna come as a shock to you. Let’s do it in ‘graph two. So, what can we expect from Yoshinobu Yamamoto for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Nothing’s changed! That’s what I keep saying for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and starters (and kinda some hitters, too). If a guy goes from fuckleberry to huckleberry, does he have no path back to fuckleberry? No. Here’s the thing, some guys will get Actually Better. If a guy gets Actually Better, then I’ll AB seeing you on my teams at an increased price. If a guy has a good season and does not get Actually Better, then why are you paying an increased price? You’re paying an increased price for something that is not real. Think of Tarik Skubal going from a tentative number four in 2022 to sparks of ace in 2023 to being an ace in 2024. He was Actually Better. Think of Shohei Ohtani going from an iffy bet around 220 overall in drafts in 2021 to a perennial MVP. He became Actually Better. Now think of Vlad Jr. in 2022. He was coming off a 48-homer season and everyone thought Actually Better. He was was Actually Not. He wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t a 48-homer hitter. I contend (for the featherweight title) that Yoshinobu Yamamoto didn’t get Actually Better.
In 173 2/3 IP, he went 12-8/2.49/0.99/201 with a 10.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.05 xFIP and gives up a lot of hard contact for someone being drafted as top 25 overall player. Here’s the Statcast:
I won’t say it’s bad; it’s not. Expected stats have serious flaws, so I’d ignore those top two. I’d focus on everything else. Convenient to ignore the two sliders where he excels the most? P to the erhaps, but I’ve long said expected stats are silly. I am not saying Yoshinobu is a bad pitcher. I’m saying he’s overrated. Here’s a starter being drafted around the same spot who I am saying not to draft, but am NOT saying is overrated. This guy is Actually Better:
That’s a top five starter. That’s Garrett Crochet. I also like this guy better:
That’s Cristopher Sanchez. What stands out to me between Yamamoto and Sanchez’s Statcast is Chase%, Whiff%, K%, BB% and Sanchez is going after Yamamoto in drafts.
Now you throw in all the little things that Yoshinobu has going against him. Dodgers have so many starters and higher aspirations than, “Can we let this guy throw 200 IP so he wins 20 games?” At five to six innings in a six-man rotation, and Yoshinobu might be in line for wins, but why did he only win 12 last year? If the Dodgers are smart and want to save him for the playoffs, then he throws 155-ish innings and not 173 (211 IP with postseason). Also, he just had a deep run in the playoffs, how does that affect him this year? He only threw 90 IP the year before, so maybe this year there’s some tired-arm syndrome as the season goes on. He gives up a lot of walks (for a top three starter, as he’s being drafted) and hard contact, so maybe those convert. Maybe his ground balls revert to 2024 (47.9%) levels and not what they became in 2025 (52.8%). That’s trouble in Dodger Stadium. Again, he is not bad, he’s overrated for fantasy drafts this year. Yoshinobu is around a top 12 starter, not a top three starter. Good, not Actually Better. One love, but you must rubber stamp that a schmohawk.
