The Week 10 NFL Cheat Sheet is here, powered by Brad Custer’s Dynasty Nerds CheatChart — the data-driven guide to weekly matchups that fuels winning lineups. Whether you’re building DFS rosters, setting start/sit calls, or hunting value in prop markets, this week’s chart highlights where fantasy points are most likely to come from across every position.
This week features Jaxson Dart’s elite QB outlook, strong RB matchups for Jonathan Taylor and De’Von Achane, and a Buffalo Bills secondary ready to feast for IDP managers. Use the chart to find leverage spots and ceiling games before Thursday Night Football kicks off.
See our Week 10 Advanced Stats Start/Sit for individual metrics on every player in every game.
How to Use the Dynasty Nerds CheatChart
Find your player’s team in the first column, then trace across to their position. The percentage shows how much better or worse they’re expected to perform compared to their season average.
Higher numbers = better matchups for DFS and prop overs.
Negative percentages = tougher defensive matchups and lineup traps.
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Week 10 Quarterback Matchups | Fantasy Football & DFS Cheat Sheet
Jaxson Dart has the top QB matchup of the week with 41%, and given how he’s been performing, there is a better-than-average chance he delivers a week-winning performance.
Justin Herbert comes in second with a 36% matchup. He has the third-highest pass attempts in the league this year, and could easily finish as the top QB of the week.
Davis Mills is expected to start with C.J. Stroud out with a concussion. While he gets a tempting 34% matchup, the last time we saw Mills as a starter was in 2022 where he was a low-floor, high-ceiling QB2 — and this game has a measly 37.5 over/under.
Trevor Lawrence is on the opposite side of that game but gets the week’s worst -35% matchup. He’s been okay enough but you should look elsewhere if you have other options.
Geno Smith gets the second-toughest matchup at -34%. He’s been bad in good matchups, so he should be avoided at all costs.
Tua Tagovailoa has a tough -30% matchup this week against division rival Buffalo. He’s been fluky this season and has bucked expectations multiple times.
Bonus math bit:
Tua Tagovailoa’s average in the first MIA vs BUF game each season: 7.07
His average in the second MIA vs BUF game of each season: 15.61
His score the first game of this season: 17.84
His score this week based on this totally reasonable math: 39.37*
(For meme purposes only)
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Week 10 Running Back Matchups | DFS Lineups & Start/Sit Calls
Jonathan Taylor gets a great 29% matchup this week. Despite coming off a poor performance, you can start him with confidence.
De’Von Achane also has a good matchup with 24% in Week 10. While the game script doesn’t favor him, he should still get plenty of rushing volume, and his big-play ability is the reason you want him in lineups.
A distant third-best is Chicago’s backfield with a 15% matchup. While Kyle Monangai stepped up last week, D’Andre Swift is expected to return, so neither is without risk.
Travis Etienne gets the worst RB matchup at -35%. With a split backfield, you should pivot if possible.
Ashton Jeanty has the second-worst matchup at -34%, but he’s still a must-start every week thanks to his receiving work.
Saquon Barkley has a tough -28% matchup, but volume alone makes him a high-floor, low-ceiling play.
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Week 10 Wide Receiver Matchups | NFL Cheat Sheet Insights
Chargers receivers get the best WR matchup of the week at 43%.
Wan’Dale Robinson gets a generous 30%, and with a favorable game script, he could be a top fantasy producer.
Drake London also sits at 30%, with monster target share over the last six weeks making him a strong start.
Raiders receivers draw the worst WR matchup at -25%, but Tre Tucker could see desperation starts with Jakobi Meyers gone. Keep an eye on Jack Bech after the game.
Jerry Jeudy has a rough -24% matchup and should remain on the bench.
Parker Washington was briefly the lead receiver for Jacksonville before Jakobi Meyers arrived. With a -23% matchup, he’s only a high-risk flex play.
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Week 10 Tight End Matchups | Fantasy Football & DFS Prop Bets
Dalton Schultz gets the best TE matchup of the week at 73%. His target volume helps offset this game’s weak over/under.
Theo Johnson has the second-best matchup at 45% and should thrive in a favorable setup.
Cade Otton follows with 44%, offering strong touchdown upside in a 48.5-point O/U game.
Tyler Warren faces the league’s worst TE matchup at -50%, but still sees enough volume to start in deeper leagues.
Greg Dulcich has the second-worst matchup (-46%) and should remain benched, especially if Julian Hill returns.
With Tucker Kraft out for the season, Luke Musgrave should see more work — but a -38% matchup makes him a stash only.
Week 10 IDP Matchups | Dynasty Nerds Defensive CheatChart
The DB picks of the week go to the Buffalo Bills secondary. Not only do they have the best matchup in the league at 24%, but they’re also expected to lead in a high-scoring game. That means more opportunities for interceptions. Cole Bishop and Christian Benford are strong options, and Taron Johnson could be in play if he returns.
Want more defensive insights? Check out our IDP Rankings and full IDP Hub for the latest analysis.
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🧠 Week 10 NFL Cheat Sheet FAQ | Dynasty Nerds CheatChart
Q1: Which players stand out as Week 10 fantasy football sleepers based on the CheatChart?
A: The Week 10 CheatChart points to Jaxson Dart, Drake London, and Dalton Schultz as strong sleeper calls. Each player benefits from a positive matchup percentage that boosts their chance at a top-10 finish for the week.
Q2: What are the most dangerous fantasy football matchups to avoid in Week 10?
A: Travis Etienne, Tyler Warren, and Jerry Jeudy headline the tough matchup list in this week’s CheatChart. Each faces strong defensive pressure or poor efficiency ratings, making them high-risk plays in both DFS and season-long lineups.
Q3: What does DFS mean in fantasy football, and how can I use matchup data like the CheatChart for it?
A: DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) involves setting new lineups each week based on player salaries and projections. The CheatChart helps by showing which players have strong positional matchups — the green-highlighted teams signal where value stacks and tournament leverage are most likely to hit.
Q4: Are there any IDP defenders with top streaming potential for Week 10?
A: The Buffalo Bills secondary is the highlight of the Week 10 IDP CheatChart. Cole Bishop and Christian Benfordoffer strong interception upside in a high-volume passing matchup, and Taron Johnson could be a sneaky play if active.
Q5: How can I use the Week 10 CheatChart by Dynasty Nerds to decide between player lines, DFS calls, and start/sit decisions?
A: Use the CheatChart’s color-coded matchup percentages to identify ceiling and floor outcomes. For DFS, target players in green-positive matchups for salary efficiency; for prop bets, compare those matchups against yardage or touchdown lines; and for start/sit, prioritize players with strong matchup efficiency and volume projections.
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