There are three important events in any fantasy sports season:
1. The draft
2. The trade deadline
3. The playoffs
For many, the draft and the trade deadline are the only important periods. That’s because they didn’t even make the playoffs, rendering the event completely and utterly insignificant, if not a total depressing affair.
Even worse for some is making the playoffs with great hopes and falling short of achieving the ultimate goal in fantasy sports.
Yes, that’s right. A title. And all the glory that comes with it. Bragging rights over your league mates. Perhaps, a trophy. And if you’re lucky, and your league is set up this way, a glorious pot of gold that makes all the time, energy, anxiety, and domestic disagreements about priorities worth it in the end.
Only one team in a league can achieve this goal of winning a title. To do that, they must ace one or both of the draft and the trade deadline.
Unfortunately, I can no longer help you ace the draft. What’s done is done. I can, however, help you ace the trade deadline.
And that’s precisely why I’m here. To provide you with a full lineup of what I like to call “Deadline Dandies”. Yes, the name needs some work, but the information I provide should be helpful and on point.
First, here are the criteria for making the All-Star team:
- The player cannot be elite, having a great season, and most importantly, at or near peak value. Value depression is key. There is a big buy-low quotient to this piece. Or at least buy modestly without robbing Peter to pay Paul, so to speak.
- The player must have data that supports a turnaround. All the players listed are in some way underperforming expectations. Data must point to near-term improvement because that’s the point. I want to help you target players who can help you win this season.
- While this is a data-heavy exercise, I did not just take the biggest laggards and add them to the list. For example, Salvador Perez has underperformed much of the season. His stats still lag behind his expected stats by a wide margin. However, because he’s currently on an absolute heater, the odds of getting him on the cheap or at all are low, depending on the league and quality of league mates.
You’ll notice a mix of boring vets and high-variance yet underperforming star-caliber talents. Well, that’s on purpose. Boring can be very valuable, and boring can make players very underrated. I’ve made a career out of targeting boring. High variance players can also click at the right time and either carry you into the playoffs or all the way to a title.
I tend to target both. But I want to emphasize, don’t sleep on boring. So many managers underestimate just how meaningful it can be to replace an underperforming player with one who is even just competent. While the idea of trading for Elly De La Cruz is awesome (and completely unlikely), sometimes all you really need is a Dansby Swanson or Xander Boegarts to plug a hole at the SS position and add more stability to your lineup.
Yes, of course, the utility of some of these players will be league dependent. I don’t play in shallow leagues, so most of my recommendations are for 12 team leagues or bigger (my two primary leagues are 30 team dynasties, so I really value the players below).
With that being said, you can chase some of the more attractive names on this list, but with them often comes volatility. That’s why they are probably available in the first place.
You don’t need to hit a home run at the deadline to improve your chances of making the playoffs or winning your league. You do need to hit some singles and doubles though. To use another overused baseball analogy, don’t strike out swinging for the fences. Take some chances, make some deals. GET BETTER!
Without further ado, here is my full lineup of “Deadline Dandies”, with alternates at each position:
You’ll notice I listed each player’s OPS to provide a basic understanding of their offensive production this season. Then I listed indicators that I felt would quickly and easily illustrate the extent to which each player has been unlucky.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) tells you how unlucky they’ve been with balls in play. I used their career BABIP as a baseline for each player instead of league average which is around .300.
wOBA (weighted On-Base Average) measures a player’s offensive value by giving different weights to different offensive outcomes (single, double, etc.). I compared that to xwOBA, which accounts for batted ball quality and sprint speed to give a more objective measure of a player’s performance. An expected measure. Comparing both allows you to ascertain the extent to which a player has produced relative to their expected productivity. Like comparing BABIP, I use this to determine the extent to which these players have been unlucky.
Yainer Diaz, C HOU – I’ve honestly never been a huge Diaz fan. His approach is way too aggressive for my liking, and most players who swing so freely at best experience significant fluctuations in production or, at worst, go the way of the dodo bird. The only way to survive is with elite bat control and batted ball quality. Diaz might not be elite in those areas, but he’s pretty darn good. He’s struggled with sliders this season. If he can adjust and get back to ripping them like he did last season, he could be in for a big second half. This is the kind of high-variance player with which you either flourish or fail.
I’m a big believer in Adley Rutchman as a bounce back candidate, too. His contact quality is the best it’s ever been this season, despite career worst results. If he’s healthy, I think he snaps out of it.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B MIL – We’re diving a little deeper here. Raise your hand if you’ve been burned by Vaughn before? I see a lot of hands. Vaughn has burned us all, and he’s probably the player on this list that I feel least confident about. However, the data doesn’t lie. Vaughn has actually struck the ball better than ever this season — his 91.6 MPH EV and 12.3 Barrel rates are career bests. And as you can probably infer from the chart above, his BABIP is by far a career low. Vaughn also has the biggest disparity between wOBA and xwOBA of anyone listed above.
I would not blame you if you didn’t trust Vaughn at this point. I’m not really sure that I do. But he’s in a good spot in Milwaukee now, getting regular playing time, and there’s a decent chance you can get him with a simple add in your league. Fliers don’t get any cheaper than that.
Otto Lopez, 2B/SS MIA – None of the options at 2B really excited or jumped out at me, except Lopez, if only because all signs point to brighter days and he’s a versatile player that you can probably get for cheap. If nothing else, a great bench bat to have in the playoffs.
Ryan McMahon, 3B COL – We’ve been waiting on this guy to break out for years. Now 30 years old, he seemed like a young up-and-comer on the precipice of a breakout for nearly a decade. Well, the breakout never happened, so we’ll just have to settle for solid. This is now one of those boring vets that can fill a void for you at 3B if you’ve been struggling there. He’s absolutely crushed the ball this season despite pretty typical results — his 94 MPH EV and 12.9 Barrel rates are career highs by decent margins — and there’s plenty of reason to think he could turn it on down the stretch. He still strikes out too much, so don’t expect high average, but if he gets on a heater, watch out.
Dansby Swanson, SS ATL – Swanson is the poster child for a big point I tried to make earlier in this article. And that is, sometimes just having a steady, reliable hand goes further than the volatile, high upside play. Some might call Swanson a boring vet at this point. There’s no star upside here. No extra gear. Just steady and reliable. That is what makes him a great trade target. I was actually surprised to find that Swanson is currently on pace for 20+ HR, 15+ SB, over 100 runs, and roughly 90 RBI. Aside from his batting average and OPS, that’s basically elite production at the SS position. Hell, any position! He’s a middle class version of Francisco Lindor, except you can have him at a fraction of the cost. One of the better trade targets you’ll find, because unlike almost everyone else on this list, he just has to keep doing what he’s doing to be really valuable.
Bryan Reynolds, OF PIT – Another guy putting up career best batted ball rates despite woeful results. It’s really inexplicable the turn Reynolds has taken this season. You can probably get him for next to nothing at this point. Definitely worth a flyer.
Mike Trout, OF LAA – I love Mike Trout. The best player of a generation, it’s easy to forget how great he was based on how little we’ve actually seen him perform in recent seasons. While it’s impossible to depend on health, this is another high variance pick that could really elevate teams down the stretch. Still crushing the ball. Still, mostly, Mike Trout. It would be so much fun to win with that guy raking in the fantasy playoffs.
Jackson Merrill, OF SDP – Merrill has had a pretty lackluster season after posting one of the better age 21 seasons in recent memory last year. The star has started to flicker and fade as managers continue to wait for a resurgence that has not yet materialized. But it still could! There’s a lot still to like in Merrill’s batted ball profile, and while he hasn’t been unlucky with balls in play, his quality of contact has been better than the outcomes we’ve seen to date. His approach is still too aggressive and free-swinging for my liking, but as long as he keeps putting bat to ball, good things will eventually happen. Just maybe not as good as last season.
Ben Rice, C/1B NYY – Oh, Ben Rice. I just can’t quit you. You are the reason I yell obscenities at Aaron Boone when I check the daily lineup card. And yet, despite how often you tease me and leave me wanting more, I still… just… can’t… quit… you. This is a good place to end the article, because I’m just not rational about Ben Rice. He has some of the absolute best batted ball data in baseball. I’m talking top 5-10 in the game. And yet, his production still leaves me, Yankees fans, and anyone else who appreciates data, wanting more. If you want to ignore this recommendation, I wouldn’t blame you. But the rest are really good, I swear!
