Welcome to the 2nd “Half” of the 2025 season. I put half in quotations because we are actually 59.5% through the season, MLB teams have played 1,446 games, and only have 984 games left on the schedule (assuming they all get played). In most Head-to-Head leagues, we have much less than half a season left. Likely, you are entering the final sprint of the fantasy “regular” season and preparing for the fantasy playoffs. If not, you are still looking to make the most of your remaining weeks, closely considering which roto categories you can still win back, or which roto category leads you can hold onto.
The start of the “second half” should represent a fundamental shift in strategy for fantasy baseball. Managers need to shift away from season projections and underlying stats that signal longterm success, and look for short bursts that may not be sustainable, but won’t matter because we’re living week-to-week in most cases. In fantasy football, there is the concept of a “league winner”, the player who was taken in the 7th round and beyond who ended up being the Top 3 RB/WR. While late round value is important in fantasy baseball, often it’s the hot hand that someone rides the last few months who ends up determining a championship. Francis Bowden in 2024 or Jon Berti in 2023 were hardly great fantasy draft picks, but their hot streaks in August/September made them league winners.
Given this fundamental shift, I wanted to run through some archetypes for common buys and fades I’ll be looking for in the short “second half” of the fantasy season:
Types of 2nd Half Buys
The Trade Replacement
With the trade deadline taking place on July 31st. A good place to make stashes now would be players on selling teams who will either be called up or will gain significant playing time following a veteran player being traded away. Some of these examples include:
- Coby Mayo (if Ramon Laureano or Ryan O’Hearn are moved)
- Matthew Lugo (if Taylor Ward or Jorge Soler are moved)
- Josh Lowe (if Yandy Diaz is moved opening up DH playing time)
- Braxton Ashcraft and Carmen Mlodzinski (if Mitch Keller and Andrew Heaney are moved)
The Toolsy Prospect
Here are some prospects who are showing exceptional skills in one area in the minors, that may force the front office to consider bringing them up (some of these could apply to the “following a trade” category as well).
- High ISO Mashers
- Samuel Basallo (Orioles)
- Will Robertson (White Sox)
- Bob Seymour (Rays)
- Rece Hinds (Reds)
- Colby Thomas (Athletics)
- The Speedsters
- Sebastian Walcott (Rangers)
- Brice Matthews (Astros)
- Jakob Marsee (Marlins)
- K-BB% Monsters
- Josh White (Marlins)
- Kai-Wei Teng (Giants)
- Jack Perkins (Athletics)
The Injury Returners
Here are players who have either not been seen or have been barely seen in 2025 who should (big caveat on should) be returning soon in 2025:
- Robert Gasser
- Gabriel Moreno
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Luis Gil
- Tanner Houck
- Blake Snell
- Victor Robles
- Luke Keaschall
Types of 2nd Half Fades
Closer on the Move
These are pitchers who are currently designated as closer or part of closer committee, who will likely lose their leveraged appearances if they are moved to a contending team:
- Pete Fairbanks
- David Bednar
- Felix Bautista
- Kenley Jansen
- Kyle Finnegan
- Carlos Estevez
- Griffin Jax
- Anthony Bender
- Chris Martin
- Raisel Iglesias
The Steam Losers
These are players typically known to struggle (or get hurt) in the second half:
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Trent Grisham
- Carson Kelly
- Joey Ryan
- CJ Abrams
- Nick Lodolo
- Taj Bradley
The lesson in these archetypes is to not automatically stash the buys and drop the fades, but to closely monitor these players in the coming weeks. The name of the game is to be as opportunistic as possible, and in daily leagues with instant add/drops, the time it takes for your competitors to look up if Will Robertson is someone worth a second look after a multi-HR game could be the difference in you picking up the coveted “league winner”.
