So far this season LHPs have a K/BB of 22/7 and a 3.93 SIERA with a .239 BA against
Similarly for RHPs – 21/8 4.16 .247 BA against
Similar discrepancies exist in home vs. away starts and specifically for SPs on the end of longer homestands. We have three left handed starters, two of whom are pitching at home, in the upper echelon of SPs tonight. It seems logical to pick at least one pitcher from this group. Skubal (12k!!?) faces SEA. Rodon faces the Cubs. Suarez is on the road against the Padres. Both Rodon and Skubal have been home all week (++) and even Joe Ryan, although right-handed, has also been enjoying a homestand. Depending on hitter pricing, I am open to grabbing at least one and possibly two pitchers from this group. You also might want to check out Matt Liberatore, a lefty on a homestand.
The other major decision point on this slate in particular is whether to roster Chase Burns vs the Rockies on the road or to fade his likely high ownership. Burns has gotten hit very hard, but has also mostly avoided bats. His stuff is elite according to stuff+ and we roster almost anyone against the Rockies, especially at this low price. I do think you will need to differentiate your roster in your offensive roster decisions if rostering Burns and one of the previously mentioned SPs.
TOR is looking like the best option tonight for offense. This means that you are likely to get a really nice floor with a TOR stack, not necessarily a tournament winning stack. Severino will be managing base runners all evening, and a couple HRs could really advance that stack.
TEX is in a nice spot vs. Lance McCullers who has three 4 BB games in a row with 8 barrels in those three games. I wouldn’t run a 5 man stack, but if you hit on a couple 3 run HRs with a 2 or 3 man stack, you would be pretty happy.
PHI, NYY, and TB will likely be 8-10% owned as well and can surely explode for one of the best offensive fantasy outputs. Their players are high priced and will force you to find some deals or avoid paying up at SP. It’s a viable way to first place, but possibly more popular than it should be.
HOU players are attractive to me today. Jack Leiter has allowed a .371 wOBA to RHBs this season and throws 0ver 80% SI, SL to RHBs. If his control falters, as it has all season, he will really struggle vs. this righty heavy team. I am thinking of rostering some 3 man HOU stacks tonight.
Finally, there is a MIA team that has been getting better all year with the addition of really good bats. They now have a team wRC+ that is above average and some real standout players. Dean Kremer and the BAL pitching staff is a good spot to attack!
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Chase Burns, SP: $7,500 – Anyone with a 30% K rate facing the COL Rockies in an away game is a near auto play. Burns is only in his 4th major league start, and SPs regularly put up their best games against the Rockies. I am considering rostering him at 80% and the other 20% of my lineups will have Joe Boyle.
Joe Ryan, SP: $10,000 – My only hesitation about this play is that it limits me from rostering Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal. Otherwise, Ryan has the best K/BB rate vs one of the worst offensive teams. I’m all in unless I take a chance on Rodon, Suarez, or Skubal.
Agustin Ramirez, C: $3,600 – Ramirez is quickly becoming the Shea Langoliers of 2024, but with a better hit tool. There are a few other Cs I’m interested in as part of a stack, but I love Ramirez today.
Christian Walker, 1B: $3,200 – I love the right handed HOU bats today, especially because they don’t really cost anything. I am expecting a lot of good at bats out of this lineup today.
Xavier Edwards, 2B: $3,800 – Edwards does great against RHPs (120 wRC+) and has really nice speed. A SB or 2 can really produce a ceiling score here. Edwards is only good as part of a stack since his upside is often tied to his team’s success.
Isaac Paredes, 3B: $4,000 – Paredes is much better about hitting the fast stuff than the slow as bat tracking data is confirming for us. Leiter is a flame thrower that will not surprise RHBs. Paredes should have a good chance for a bomb in this one.
Elly De La Cruz, SS: $5,700 – My hit rate with Elly is high. I love rostering him on large slates which depress his ownership organically. His high ceiling can help win tournaments. I am hoping for a 30 point effort here, and I can play him as a one off.
Kyle Stowers, OF: $4,000 – Barrel Rate is one of those stats that is quicker to normalize and can help us understand that Kyle Stowers really does have elite power, or at least he is closer to that than average. The BAL pitching staff (and Camden Yards) is a nice spot to take a chance.
Jesus Sanchez, OF: $3,500 – We have a positive matchup, a team trending up, some clear options to roster, and a great ballpark to hit in. I am playing all the good Marlins and making a withdrawal tonight.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There are a few rainy spots to monitor and one happens to be in MIN where I am targeting pitching. Check back in before the game starts and make sure Kevin Roth is okay with it. Nothing else.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Nothing of interest here today
