14 games may equal information overload for some today. Let’s get right into the details keeping in mind ownership will likely be very spread out today, and there are going to be multiple good pathways to take to first place, so let’s plan to stay off the main drags.
I imagine at least the Yankees and Braves will be highly owned, but there are plenty of other good spots to target. SF Giants are in an interesting spot playing against the White Sox in a good HR park. They should all experience a massive upgrade in HR potential. The Cardinals also get a park boost going to CLE. Luis Ortiz is getting better, but can still have a blow up outing vs. a team that hits RHPs better than lefties.
You can find some nice three man stacks on the Phillies and Astros. Larger stacks can be made using the Dodgers, Rays and Cubs. Check out the suggestions below and make sure you check the projections from Razzball Stremonator or Hittertron.
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Logan Gilbert, SP: $10,000 – This is by far the best play at SP, and his price is not much higher than the other elite SPs. He may not produce the highest score, but he should still compete for it. The downgrade Gilbert has to work against is the change in ballpark factor and especially strikeouts, but I still feel like he can reach his ceiling.
Jake Irvin, SP: $7,500 – You do not have to pay down to Jake tonight. Grab Cease as an SP2 or roster Quintana against the Rockies (American Family Field where the Brewers play does inflate Ks according to ballpark factors). However, Irvin will be largely unowned, and his K potential vs. a heavily right handed lineup should get a boost. Irvin should have what it takes to stifle the Angels, and best of all, he should not be owned.
Will Smith, C: $4,900 – I wasn’t paying 6k for Smith in Coors, but I will gladly pay this salary hitting in the middle of the Dodgers lineup and facing a lefty. Otherwise, maybe just go cheap.
Nick Kurtz, 1B: $3,900 – He should be very popular tonight (I would highly consider stacking A’s if playing Kurtz) because of his power and matchup. Warren allows a .367 wOBA to lefty hitters and Kurtz has a .405 wOBA vs RHPs so far. Warren may just walk Kurtz which is why I like the stack.
Brendan Donovan, 2B: $3,800 – Donovan is another player who benefits from the lefty v. righty matchup tonight, and CLE is a great park for LHBs as the weather warms up. STL in general is in a good spot tonight.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 3B: $5,100 – There are plenty of good options at this position tonight, and Chisholm has one of the best. Spence struggles vs lefties (.363 wOBA allowed) while Chisholm excels (.366 wOBA). The ATH bullpen is also quite bad, and Yankee Stadium is still good for LHBs.
Willy Adames, SS: $4,000 – Adames has been getting more popular lately because his results don’t match his underlying metrics, and this is a good matchup to change things. Civale is now starting for the White Sox, and he should get a good amount of innings. Adames can lock in on the starting pitcher and put some good swings on the ball.
Athletics, OF: $4,500/4600 – Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom get good matchups tonight as LHBs, similar to Kurtz. I like playing both of them together, but Soderstrom’s metrics are slightly better.
Yankees, OF: $3,600/4,100 – Trent Grisham and Jason Dominguez get great matchups tonight vs. Mitch Spence. He still struggles vs. lefties, and the Yankees have a lot of good ones. This offense may draw concentrated ownership tonight, which I want to check on before rostering.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is always a chance of pop up storms in the summer settling over a ballpark, but nothing imminent or that will lead to a postponed game today. There is a lot of hot/humid weather to take note of. Games in Cleveland and Chicago have good hitting weather.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The only thing I can’t understand is the low projection for the Athletics. They have such great lefty power hitter, I assumed they would be projected for 4+ runs.
