Full disclosure: I am about to rip off a topic. Ryan Bloomfield and Brian Entrekin (KC Bubba) of the Bubba and The Bloom podcast and Discord have created the “Jean Segura All-Stars”. The idea is that Jean Segura, who generally had an excellent real-life and Fantasy career, was someone we all tended to just keep in lineups,”set it and forget it” as the kids say. But late in his career, Segura really was not very good. But it often went a bit below the radar, then next thing you know, you look up and you have a guy in your lineup every day/week who has actively hurt you with his lack of production.
So yada yada yada, here’s my outfield edition of Jean Segura All-Stars. I am going to be a little loose with the criteria. I’ll know a Jean Segura All Star when I see one! Generally, though, I am looking for guys that have slumped a bit or a lot over the last month or so, but we’re likely just keeping in deeper lineups. Injured guys don’t really qualify since we know them well. Ideally (or really not ideally) they were either high draft picks or guys that got off to fast starts and “earned” permanent lineup slots. It often won’t be clear even if we notice them that we should bench them. I mean Fernando Tatis has slumped, but we’re not touching him.
OK, I’ve rambled on too long. Here are my Outfield picks for this dubious distinction. Stats are through Saturday.
Kyle Stowers
The Marlins outfielder did not generate all that much draft or auction interest as he profiled as a platoon bat with little speed and not enough pop to offset his sky high 35.4% K% in 2024. But he plays for the Marlins, and playing time opportunities abound. And as on May 14th, Stowers had mashed 10 homers with 29 RBI’s and most surprisingly a .300 battling average. It came with a 22.9% Barrel%, 51% HardHit%, and 91 EV. His 29% K% was totally palatable with all that production. And best of all, the Marlins rolled him out there daily. And mostly, his Fantasy owners did the same.
Well, since then, Stowers has reverted back to the guy the Orioles were willing to package along with Connor Norby in return for Trevor Rogers at last year’s trade deadline. Yeah, that’s still a bafflingly awful real-life trade. But since May 15th, Stowers has hit .228, with 0 homers and just 5 RBI’s in 110 PA’s. Perhaps he’s a bit unlucky as he does have 6 Barrels since then, his HardHit% has lifted modestly to 52.1% and his K’s have gone down a shade to 27.3%. He’s getting pitched a bit differently as he’s seeing about 9-10% fewer fastballs than in the earlier stretch. I’m not huge on batting data vs. “X Pitch” as PA’s consist of multiple pitches (obviously) and we’re only measuring results on the pitch that ends the PA. But fwiw, as per Statcast, Stowers has 50 PAs vs. offspeed pitches and he has a 34% K% vs. 2% BB% on them, with just 1 homer and a .250 average.
Stowers got cut in my “good” Main, and I bid for him to cut Michael Conforto (will know by the time this runs whether I actually got him). Yes, the Conforto revival never came, I have about 37 other guys on that waterfall, so if Conforto goes all Andy Pages and explodes in the next month, I will benefit not one iota. But I’ve totally digressed.
Spencer Steer
The Reds sometime 1B/3B/OF became a Fantasy stud over the last 2 seasons, hitting 23 and 20 homers respectively with 15 and 25 steals. Unfortunately, the real life player dipped a bit as his batting average fell from .271 to .225, and his fielding value was never great to begin with. He can line up all over the field, but he’s a “jack of all trades, master of none” sort as he grades out just OK in the corners.
Still, he had draft buzz that was cooled only by a shoulder injury that looked likely to delay his season debut. Surprisingly, he made the opening day roster (as a DH only). A power/speed guy with multi-position eligibility in a good lineup playing half their games in Great America Small Park has obvious appeal.
His production has just cratered this year. In nearly half a season, he has just 6 homers, 25 RBI’s, and 4 steals while putting up a .230 average. His Statcast page suggests this is simply who he is now, as it’s a depressing sea of dark blue.
It’s extremely likely that the Reds rushed him back. The optimistic case here is that he gets healthier and picks it up in the 2nd half of the season.
Jung Ho Lee
I really liked the Giants CF in draft season as a Steven Kwan clone at a lower price. I barely actually got him, and that looked extremely unfortunate early on. As of May 14th, he was hitting .286 with 6 homers, 30 runs, and 29 RBI’s in 182 PA’s. Only 3 steals though.
Well, he has 3 steals in 131 PA’s since then, but everything has just cratered. Zero homers and 5 RBI’s in 5.5 weeks, that’s just absolutely brutal. Throw in a .211 Average and 13 runs, and it’s just plain ugly. He’s the quintessential Jean Segura All Star for me personally; I’ve rolled him out again and again in the 2 DC’s where I have him. I don’t watch the Giants all that much, all I really notice was that he moved down to the middle of the order. My bad!
I’m not sure there’s really anything to do here, though. His EV dropped a bit, but you’re really paying for the plate skills here, not the power. And he remains elite there. In his slump month+, he has an 11.5% BB% vs 9.9% K%, actually improved numbers from early on. His Contact% has remained steady at 87.8% and he carries an elite 35.9% Squared-Up% (95th Percentile). It feels just a little unlucky and I’ll put on my Captain Obvious hat and point out no one can steal bases if they’re not on base much, though a 10/20 sort of season with excellent Avg. and Runs seems unlikely at this point.
Tyler Soderstrom
What would a list by me be without mentioning Tyler Soderstrom? Everyone else is here because decent overall numbers mask an extended slump. Soderstrom was kind of doing that too, but then spiked again for a couple weeks before re-hitting the doldrums. His struggles have way more to do with where he lines up in the field. When he’s at first base, he’s an All Star.
164 PA’s, .273/.360/.587, 13 HR, 25 runs, 34 RBI, .
When he’s in Left Field, he’s retrospectively unplayable
157 PA, ..225/.299/.296, 1 HR, 16 runs, 10 RBI
I have absolutely no idea if this is really a thing, but both wow and ugh. The move to the outfield looks more or less permanent as long as Nick Kurtz remains on the A’s. Soderstrom was a highly rated prospect coming up, but Kurtz is possibly a generational power bat. And he’s a better fielder to boot. Soderstrom grades out as 2nd percentile as per Statcast.
The real-life A’s drafted Kurtz last July knowing they already had Soderstrom. It makes total sense to go with the top player on their board and just sort out everything later. They’re not really trying to compete for the playoffs just yet. If they actually are trying to win now, well, they’re not succeeding at it. But now that they have both players, plus Brent Rooker mashing as DH but not able to play much OF, Soderstrom has to either play LF or go dig up his catchers mitt.
Yada yada yada, 1) Soderstrom can’t seem to hit while playing LF 2) Kurtz is staying at 1B. For us, really me since I have Soderstrom on a couple big teams, I really can’t bench him. It’s just impossible to have a better option in a deep league. But ouch, this is ugly. The real life A’s probably need to trade him. But is that going to happen during the season? Well, the Red Sox could definitely use a 1B and they infamously have a crowd in the OF…..just saying.
Lars Nootbaar
I really anticipated this was THE year he would break out and we’d have a Noot Bar vending machine on every corner. Well, at least St Louis would have them. It always seemed like if he could stay healthy, Nootbaar would pile up numbers across the board. I am not totally sure he qualifies for this list, as he wasn’t a terribly high draft pick. He played well early on, but not one of those “Victory Lap” sort of spikes for his owners. But he’s a deep league lineup fixture for most teams, and he’s really not doing much of Fantasy value. His homer on Thursday marked only his second since May 14th. That’s a 31 game stretch where he also has 0 steals and just 7 RBI’s while batting .190. He’s generally a good on base guy, but even there he’s at .280 OBP with an alarming 31.8% K%. He hasn’t had a K% over 20.5% since his 124 PA debut in 2021.
It’s all kind of strange. His 9.8%SwStr% and 23.7% O-Swing% over this stretch are still very good, just down from his elite career levels of 18.9% and 6.9%. His 92.7 EV since May 15th would actually mark a career high over a full season, as would his 54.7% HardHit%. In other words, he’s making better contact while the components that lead to K’s are still pretty good. He feels like a buy-low here (whatever that means mid-season)
