Throughout the season, I’ve given a number of waiver wire recommendations, and now it’s time to face the music. No one should take anything I say seriously unless I’m willing to take an honest look at players I’ve recommended, so here goes.
Below, I’ve included 4 players I was most interested in picking up. Let’s see if my crystal ball was working at the time of my suggestion.
All stats I’ve referenced are as of end of day on Tuesday, June 17th. The waiver wire articles I reference are from March 27th and May 15th:
– Javier Baez, OF/3B/SS, DET
Why I recommended him:
When I wrote about Javier Baez back on May 15th, I admitted that I really didn’t know what was making this season look so much better than his previous seasons in Detroit. He had improved his plate discipline metrics slightly, was still hitting the ball relatively hard with solid bat speed, and was striking out less often. Otherwise, I really thought he would dip significantly in his performance, especially in AVG. But my recommendation to pick him up off the waiver wire was simple, if not very data-driven:
I have a bad feeling his renaissance is going to be short-lived, but my eyeball test tells me that Javy believes in himself this year. That has not been the case over the last couple of years in Detroit. And I’ve watched enough of this guy to know that he is an entertainer. When he feels like he is a star, he makes himself a star. That isn’t data-based, so if you’re a fantasy player who goes where the data tells you to go, Javy is probably not your guy. But I’m picking him up just in case the old Javy is still in there somewhere – while keeping my expectations in check.
Verdict:
In the roughly 100 PAs he’s had since I wrote about him, he’s added 4 more HRs, 12 Rs, and 8 RBIs. His AVG has dipped, but only to .289. His xBA has actually gone up 3 points – a miniscule gain but a gain nonetheless. His xwOBA has improved by 13 points along with his HH% (up around 5%), his EV (up nearly 1 mph), and his maxEV (up around 2.5 mph).
Outlook going forward:
He is still on pace to finish with around 25 HRs, 85-90 Rs, and 95-100 RBIs, so his R and RBI paces have dipped. But that’s still an excellent pace. He is still showing improved plate discipline, and he’s pulling the ball more often than last year. He’s doing things I like to see, so maybe this is real???
Before I suggested him to my readers, I rostered him everywhere I could, and I’ve nervously stuck with him since then. I keep expecting the comeback season to come to a near halt at any moment, but until it does, I’m riding with Javy.
– Otto Lopez, 2B/SS, MIA
Why I recommended him:
When I wrote about Otto Lopez on March 27th, the two carrying tools I thought he would have are speed and AVG. His 82nd percentile speed of 28.5 ft/s makes the speed argument clear. For the argument for AVG, here was my reasoning:
Lopez has a chance to be a real asset in AVG. In his first full season last year, he hit .270, and his underlying stats suggest he might be able to improve that number a bit. His Contact% (80.1%), Z-Contact% (88.6%), and K% (17.3%) tell us that he isn’t flailing blindly during at bats. He has a sense of what he wants to do at the plate, and his plate discipline gives him some room to grow as a hitter. His HH% at 38.4% is hard enough to do some damage (like Ortiz, not great, not terrible, just below avg), and he consistently hits the ball on the ground (GB% of 53.6%). Hitting the ball in the air only a quarter of the time means few homers, but it also means higher BABIP. His speed should help the BABIP numbers as well – last year’s was .318, which I think is sustainable, maybe improvable. His minor league numbers also suggest AVG as a carrying tool: in 2,251 minor league PAs, he held a .300 AVG.
Verdict:
Lopez has wrestled with injuries so far, but in 228 PAs, he has a line of a .233 AVG, 6 HR, 26 R, 25 RBI, and 8 SB, which works out to full season numbers of 15-18 HR, 65-70 R & RBI, and 20-25 SB. Yes, thank you. For what you would have paid for him in the draft or on waivers, that’s a steal.
His AVG has been less great, but his plate discipline metrics are improving: Z-contact 91% (up 3.4% from March 27th), Contact 81.7% (up 1.6%), and K% 14.2% (down 3.1%).
Outlook going forward:
With the improvements in plate discipline, I still like his chances to get better in AVG. His .246 BABIP is unsustainably low, and while he doesn’t have the hard hit metrics he did earlier this season (34.1 HH%, 88.1 EV, 109.9 maxEV), he’s hitting the ball plenty hard to get more hits. The problem is he’s increased his FB% by about 7% from last year, presumably in an attempt to hit more HRs. More HRs may come, but a lower AVG will too. I would still expect around .260 or so by the end of the season.
Chances are, if you’ve rostered Lopez when healthy, you feel mostly ok about it. And if you also picked up the fourth guy on this list, your AVG issues are solved anyway.
– Joey Ortiz, 3B/SS, MIL
Why I recommended him:
When I suggested you go pick up Joey Ortiz way back on March 27th, I expected him to provide help in all categories. After a promising year last season, I predicted he would improve this season and end up with somewhere around “a .260 AVG with 15 HR & SB, and around 65 R & RBI. Maybe more.” Really, those numbers were my baseline expectation. I thought he would offer more power than other MI options like Bryson Stott or Andres Gimenez, and that he was on the precipice of a SB breakout.
Verdict:
Oops. It’s hard to miss harder than I did with Ortiz. Not only has he not been on the pace I expected, but he’s been essentially in danger of finding himself back in the minors at any time. His current line of a .188 AVG, 2 HR, 25 R, 11 RBI, and 8 steals in 248 PAs is downright awful. The Razzball Player Rater puts his season long value to this point at $-13.20. If you’ve been playing Ortiz in your lineup, it’s been killing you. My bad.
At least I was apparently right about his steals – he’s on pace for somewhere around 20-25 SBs, but yikes on everything else.
Outlook going forward:
I don’t think I imagined his performance last season. It looked promising at the time, but he isn’t repeating most of the things I care about. His HH% has dropped by over 4%, his barrel rate has been cut in half from last season’s already modest 4.6%, and his EV has dropped by 2 mph, and his maxEV by nearly 2 mph. While he does have an xBA of .250, his drop in xSLG and xwOBA reflects his soft hitting. He’s also lost nearly 1 mph of bat speed.
There are some good signs, though. His walk rate has gone up by 4%, and his contact metrics still look very solid. He has also improved his ability to square up the ball and find the sweet spot of the bat. That’s something, I suppose.
I’m not ready to give up on Ortiz as a player, but I’ve definitely dropped him from my roster wherever I had him.
– Jacob Wilson, SS, ATH
Why I recommended him:
When I wrote about Jacob Wilson on March 27th, my argument was all about AVG – he can get it for you. But I was, um, lukewarm? about everything else… OK, it’s probably more accurate to say I completely dismissed his ability to impact your team in the other areas.
Verdict:
I was right about AVG – his .360 AVG is about as much as anyone could ask. But I was wrong about everything else. Wilson is absolutely filling up the stat sheet: 8 HR, 39 R, 38 RBI, and 5 SB in 292 PAs. I did not see a pace of 15-20 HR, 80-85 R & RBI, and 10-12 SB coming. This guy has been a revelation: the Razzball Player Rater puts Wilson at a $24.10 value to this point – whoa.
If you picked him up in March, you have pulled significant profit from a player that likely wasn’t on your radar at all beforehand. I’ll take it.
Outlook going forward:
His elite Contact and Z-Contact metrics (above 90% for both), miniscule K% (6.4%), and .307 xBA suggest that while his .360 AVG may be driven somewhat by luck, this guy is an excellent hitter.
His HH% continues not to impress at 25.8%, but his maxEV of 108.5 mph shows us that there is power in the bat, just not consistently. He is pulling the ball in the air effectively, leading to his HR output. I would expect the HR numbers to dip somewhat, but 12-15 HRs may be completely reasonable.
I think it would make sense to hope for end numbers around a .315 AVG, 12 HR, 70-75 R & RBI, and 8-10 SB as a floor. Those numbers have value for sure, and if he continues to prove that he can outperform the HR and SB numbers, Wilson may deserve the “league winner” label.
In sum, I’m pretty pleased that of the 4 waiver wire adds I felt best about, 3 of them have provided real value. I’ll keep doing my best to find some hidden gems for you. Until next week. – ADHamley
