NCAA Tournament fans know that look. The eye-catching garments, the stylish hair, the sleek, slip-on shoes … only it usually isn’t John Calipari in the role of Cinderella. And yet, with the Sweet 16 set to begin Thursday, here we are.
Where are the actual upsets this year? A whopping 13 of the top 16 seeds are still alive, leaving very little room for serious underdogs. Right now the men’s bracket looks a lot more like a quirky news segment at Reed College than Villanova in 1985. Given that Bracket Breakers looks at potential upsets in games between teams separated by at least five seeds, our upset-minded model, Slingshot, doesn’t have many more stones to fire.
Brief as it will be, we hope you enjoy this Sweet 16 preview, because if this NCAA men’s tournament holds to form, it may be the last pre-game analysis you will get from us this year. We do, however, have one deep dog left to consider.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
Upset chance: 16.6 percent
We don’t miss much — just ask us! But we have mentioned that this tournament seemed to be short on “wounded assassins,” our term for power-conference squads that get dinged by bad luck and/or injuries, rack up double-digit losses and land lower seeds than their actual strength warrants (like NC State last year). That’s because we – and Slingshot – underestimated Arkansas. The Razorbacks’ year-long stats don’t reveal many traits common to successful longshots of the past. But they are playing so much better than they were two months ago that we can’t ignore their improvement.
Arkansas began this season with a cast of transfers and freshmen, ranking 323rd in minutes continuity, per KenPom. Then they sustained a rash of injuries. By January, the Razorbacks seemed to be falling apart, as they lost their first five SEC games. But starting on Feb. 1 with a win at Kentucky, Arkansas went 8-5 against conference opponents, 10 of whom ranked among the top 50 teams in the nation.
Seeded 10th, they then topped No. 7 seed Kansas and No. 2 St. John’s in this tournament. That pluckiest of Cinderellas, Calipari has the Razorbacks playing at the top of their form. And they’re getting players back, including guard Boogie Fland (14.2 points per game, 5.4 apg) and now forward Adou Thiero (15.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg).
Let’s face it, last time out, Arkansas was also fortunate to face an opponent whose performance constituted the worst meltdown of the tournament so far. St. John’s couldn’t hit a layup or make an entry pass, shot 36 percent from 2-point range and a hard-to-believe 9 percent from behind the arc. Even harder to believe was the lackluster defense and its motivational genius head coach benching its best player. Then they started heaving 3s too early while surrendering easy buckets at the end of the game. No favorite can overcome that many issues.
So give credit to Arkansas where it’s due, but don’t expect the Razorbacks to get an extension on their loan. Even against St. John’s, they didn’t display the giant-killing tactics that Slingshot looks for: They forced just six turnovers and shot a horrid 2-for-19 from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, our model sees Texas Tech as the seventh-best team in the country, and a strong favorite. Although it’s often hard to see because of their slow pace, the Red Raiders have the fifth-most efficient offense in Division I (125.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions). They take care of the ball (24th in turnover rate) and grab their own misses (59th in offensive rebounding).
Past favorites who statistically resemble Texas Tech have also been safer than teams like St. John’s, at least when it comes to facing teams similar to Arkansas. In the 10 closest matchups to this game in our database, the underdog won just once.
A final data point: If the refs decide to muck up this contest as thoroughly as they did the Arkansas-St. John’s game – where they called 44 fouls – the Red Raiders will probably not be as disrupted as badly as the Red Storm. While St. John’s ranked just 334th in two-foul participation rate (the percentage of time a starter with two first-half fouls has been allowed to play), Texas Tech is 58th.
In this day and age, it’s no great insult to say that the Razorbacks have already played well enough to keep funds flowing from the chairman of Tyson Foods to this program. But Slingshot doesn’t see them having too much time left on the cluck.
(Photo: Emilee Chinn/Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
