The road to the Final 4 is on the horizon.
Sixteen teams have navigated past two opponents and are now just three wins away from their ultimate goal. But before entertaining championship thoughts, the Sweet 16 is calling. Teams only have one shot, one game, one chance to advance. But which teams will continue their journey and which will fall just short? The Athletic has you covered with all the analysis you need.
Here’s what to expect in Thursday’s quartet of games.
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama
7:09 p.m. ET on CBS
College basketball fans are in for a treat in the first game of the Sweet 16, as two of the 10 best offenses in the country square off.
Keep an eye on Keba Keita of the Cougars. He is their only reliable center, so keeping him out of foul trouble will be key. And because Alabama puts a lot of pressure on the rim, his backline defense will be crucial.
Keita is also the third shortest center left in the field, and the Tide have four players who are at least 6-foot-10, players they send in waves. Alabama ranks second in height at power forward and fifth at center among Sweet 16 teams.
BYU has an advantage at the other end, though. While Alabama’s defense is ranked in the top 30, according to KenPom, the Tide have allowed at least 80 points in seven of their last 10 games, including at least 90 points in four.
Both teams will score points, but the Tide do most of their damage in the paint, ranking third in the country in 2-point percentage.
Offense wins games, but defense wins championships. Crucial stops in the last four minutes might decide this thriller of a matchup.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland
7:39 p.m. ET on TBS
Both teams had to overcome deficits to punch their tickets to the Sweet 16, with Maryland pulling it off at the buzzer. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. To advance to the Elite Eight and beyond, most things have to go right.
Florida must find a way to contain the highly productive frontcourt of Derik Queen and Julian Reese. The Gators’ frontcourt was outscored 51-18 by UConn, so it will be important to wall up and play physical without fouling.
Maryland has very little depth, while Florida can go nine deep. How this game is officiated could tell the tale. Maryland’s ‘Crab Five’ is one of the best lineups in the country, but if one of them has to sit with foul trouble, there aren’t a lot of options. The Terrapins’ bench scored two points in the win over Colorado State and 13 in a blowout victory over Grand Canyon.
Florida has three guards capable of scoring 20-plus points in any game, so it would be wise for them to be in attack mode from the tip-off. If they can get a Maryland starter in foul trouble, I like their chances even more.
Statistically, these teams are about even — both rank in the top 22 in offense and defense.
Will Florida’s guards be too much to handle or will Maryland’s bigs continue to dominate?
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona
9:39 p.m. ET on CBS
Duke defeated Arizona 69-55 in November, and Cooper Flagg dominated with 24 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks.
The Wildcats have a much different team now — the squad that only managed 55 points vs. the Blue Devils ended up leading the Big 12 in scoring — and will look to get revenge on Thursday.
Arizona’s Caleb Love, a former North Carolina Tar Heel, will be facing Duke for the 10th time and has a 5-4 record while averaging 15.8 points in those meetings. However, in his previous four games with Tyrese Proctor as his main defender, he struggled, putting up 10.5 points on 28 percent shooting. Love will need to be excellent or outplay Proctor to beat the Blue Devils.
For the Wildcats to win, they will need to control the offensive glass — they are 16th in the country in offensive rebounding. In their first matchup, they only grabbed six. Their role players also need to step up. In November, Jaden Bradley and KJ Lewis combined for 30 points, while Trey Townsend scored four and Tobe Awaka was held scoreless.
Ideally, Arizona will try to drive on Duke’s guards and get paint touches, but the Blue Devils are fifth in the country in defensive 2-point percentage, plus they are the tallest team in basketball.
The Wildcats also don’t shoot the 3 at an elite level, so early shot-making will be the key to opening up the floor.
Arizona wants to get into a shootout, but Duke is 31-0 when it allows 71 points or fewer. Arizona is 0-7 when failing to score at least 72 points.
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Arkansas
10:09 p.m. ET on CBS
Arkansas is one of the tallest and most athletic teams Texas Tech has faced all year, presenting a host of potential challenges.
The Red Raiders only have two bigs, so foul trouble is something to keep in mind.
Arkansas’ road to get here was interesting. The Razorbacks were outplayed by Kansas but won, then benefited from playing a St. John’s team that couldn’t make shots.
Fortunately for Arkansas, the Red Raiders haven’t shot the ball well either this tournament, though they showed against Drake that they are a balanced offense led by JT Toppin and Darrion Williams.
Arkansas is 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Texas Tech is fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency, so something has to give.
The Razorbacks are top 150 in defensive turnover percentage, but the Red Raiders have only turned it over 12 times in two tournament games and haven’t turned it over 10 times or more since Feb. 18 against TCU.
Tech will need to make shots to slow down Arkansas’ physical defense. It would also make sense to continue to let Williams and Elijah Hawkins operate in the pick-and-roll with Toppin.
There are no Cinderella teams left in the field, but 10-seed Arkansas is hot at the right time and looking to keep rolling.
(Andy Hancock/ NCAA Photos / Getty Images)
