The East Region is home to our model’s second-favorite upset. Can VCU topple BYU (and keep going from there)?
Below, you’ll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the East. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don’t cover 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can’t tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you’re interested in how our model works, check out this piece.
You’ll also find links to the other regions as we post them, and stay tuned later in the week for upset odds for every potential second-round matchup.
Odds from BetMGM. For more March Madness coverage, check out all of our bracket advice.
More Bracket Breakers: Men’s Top 10 Upsets | West Region Preview | South | Midwest | Women’s Top 10 Upsets
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 VCU Rams
Upset Chance: 43.1 percent
The more things change in college basketball, the more they stay the same. VCU is on its third head coach since Shaka Smart left for Texas, and the Rams still epitomize the quintessential giant killer. Ryan Odom’s system may not be the same as the Havoc of VCU’s Final Four run, but it produces similar results, particularly on defense. VCU forces turnovers on 20.6 percent of opponents’ possessions and holds foes to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation (44.4 percent). If that’s not enough, the Rams employ bracket-breaking tactics on offense, too, taking 47 percent of their shots from three-point range (27th in the nation) and grabbing 36.7 percent of their own misses (12th). It’s almost as if Slingshot conjured their existence.
That’s the first case in favor of VCU. The second is far more basic: The Rams are simply almost as well as the Cougars. BYU is ranked 24th by KenPom.com with an adjusted net rating of +22.4; VCU is 30th at +20.6. A difference of fewer than two points per 100 possessions is minimal, to say the least.
Then there’s our model’s similar games function. Six of the 10 historical Bracket Breakers games most similar to this one ended in an upset, including last year’s matchup between Duquesne and … BYU.
With all of these signs pointing toward VCU, it’s a wonder that BYU is even favored. But the Cougars are a strong team, featuring the country’s 11th-rated offense and 28th-ranked defensive rebounding, which means it will be strength on strength at both ends of the floor. The Cougars could get themselves in trouble due to their reliance on 3-point shooting (especially against VCU’s perimeter defense), but the Cougars hit 37 percent of those shots, so if they’re cooking, they’ll be a tough out for anyone, let alone VCU.
It’s also worth noting that if you like VCU to beat BYU, you might as well take them to reach the Sweet 16. Our model gives the Rams a 44.3 percent chance of knocking off Wisconsin.
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 12 Liberty Flames
Upset Chance: 31.4 percent
Last week, we identified Oregon as one of Slingshot’s most vulnerable high seeds, largely because the Ducks fall into a statistical family we call “Generic Giants.” In the simplest terms, they don’t do any single thing particularly well, using a fairly well-rounded approach to beat most teams, but without any of the possession-building characteristics that are the hallmark of safer favorites. These types of teams fall at a much higher rate in the tournament, and that’s the main reason why the upset odds are so high for this game.
In fact, it has very little to do with Liberty. The Flames actually have a negative “secret sauce” — our model’s statistical adjustment based on how much an underdog resembles successful killers of the past. They do have one weapon going for them: They shoot a ton of 3s (48 percent of shots) and make them at a 39.5 percent clip, led by Taelon Peter (13.9 ppg, 46.6 3PT%).
Importantly, four of the 10 most similar games ended in upsets, including two of the top three (Texas/Northern Iowa in 2016 and Providence/Dayton in 2015).
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 14 Montana Grizzlies
Upset Chance: 13.9 percent
Speaking of teams Slingshot doesn’t like, it also had words for Wisconsin last week. The Badgers may have reinvented their offense, but they’ve also adopted a style that’s not conducive to safety — heavily reliant on 3-pointers, poor offensive rebounding and not a lot of forced turnovers.
But Montana offers even fewer positive qualities when it comes to generating upsets. The Grizzlies are even worse at offensive rebounding (347th in the country) and forcing turnovers (290th). In fact, they don’t stop anyone, allowing an abysmal 110.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions (250th in the nation). That’s why they lost by 31 points to Oregon, by 35 against Tennessee and by 28 (allowing 104 points) to Northern Iowa.
None of the 10 most similar games in our model ended in an upset. And this one isn’t likely to either.
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 13 Akron Zips
Upset Chance: 12.1 percent
This has been a trendy upset pick among various pundits, but Slingshot doesn’t share their enthusiasm. It sees Arizona as a really good team — ninth in our basic power ratings — that also boosts its safety with outstanding offensive rebounding (35.9 percent, 19th in the country).
Meanwhile, the model is less enthusiastic about the Zips. Yes, they’re a high-volume 3-point shooting team (45.4 percent of field-goal attempts), and the Johnson and Johnson backcourt of Nate (14 ppg) and Tavari (13 ppg, 39 percent 3PT) is dangerous. But Akron has several flaws. The Zips play too fast (successful underdogs tend to favor a slower style), and they don’t excel on the boards or in forcing turnovers. Only one of the 10 most similar games ended in an upset, and most of the other nine were blowouts for the favorite.
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials
Upset Chance: 6.3 percent
Robert Morris is named after the “financier of the American Revolution.” But unless his university can start financing a lot more NIL money, the Colonials can’t hang with the likes of Alabama. Mark Sears and Co. play at the nation’s fastest pace, score inside and out, and grab 34.7 percent of their rare misses. That’s just too much for Robert Morris, although any team with a 6-foot-7, 185-pound wing who blocks 2.4 shots per game gets our respect. (Kudos, Amarion Dickerson.)
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 16 American Eagles or Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
Upset Chance: American, 6.4 percent; St. Mary’s, 4.1 percent
With or without Cooper Flagg, don’t expect the Blue Devils to struggle against either potential opponent. None of the 10 most similar games — for either potential matchup — ended in an upset. American is ranked 237th at KenPom and lost by 52 points to North Carolina (whom you might recall losing to Duke three times). Mount St. Mary’s is 250th and turns the ball over on 22 percent of its own possessions, the sixth-worst mark in Division I.
(Top photo of Ryan Odom: Chris Gardner/Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
