The Midwest doesn’t feature a game with upset odds greater than 30 percent. (Well, fine, greater than 30.2 percent.) But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some fascinating matchups. In fact, this region is home to the likeliest No. 4-vs.-No. 13 upset on our board.
Below, you’ll find a game-by-game analysis of every first-round matchup with Bracket Breaker implications in the East. As a reminder, to qualify as a Bracket Breaker game, opponents need to be separated by at least five seeds (which is why we don’t cover 8 vs. 9 or 7 vs. 10 games). Our analysis adjusts teams’ basic strengths according to how closely they statistically resemble favorites and underdogs from past tournaments and, where appropriate, by style matchups. We can’t tell you how to pick — that depends on how richly your pool rewards deep upsets and your risk tolerance. But if you’re interested in how our model works, check out this piece.
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More Bracket Breakers: Men’s Top 10 Upsets | West Region Preview | South | East | Women’s Top 10 Upsets
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Upset Chance: 30.2 percent
Clemson’s 27-6 record this year, including wins over Duke and Kentucky, is actually a bit unlucky. It also includes four losses by three or fewer points. And Slingshot likes the Tigers: They’re No. 23 in our power ratings, take care of the ball and hit the offensive boards. But, for the second straight year, our model loves McNeese. Like every Will Wade team, the Cowboys rope extra possessions, ranking 18th in the country in forcing turnovers and 42nd in offensive rebounding. They don’t take a lot of 3s, but have shown the ability to — as we like to put it — play the chameleon, and launch bombs more often when they need to take risks. In two games against SEC opponents (both close losses), McNeese attempted more than 40 percent of its shots from long range. The Cowboys also disrupt their opponents into using 18.6 seconds per possession, 19th longest in the NCAA.
History shows that slow killers, like McNeese, have had some success against favorites who are particularly effective on the perimeter, like Clemson. Of the 10 games most similar to this matchup in our database, underdogs won three, and were outscored by just 5.2 points per 100 possessions. One comp in particular should set off alarm bells for Clemson: 11-seed North Carolina State’s victory over 6-seed Texas Tech last year. The Red Raiders liked to keep things very slow, and so do the Tigers (64.4 possessions per game, ranking 327th). Clemson vs. McNeese might struggle to break 60 possessions. And that’s good news for the underdog.
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 13 High Point Panthers
Upset Chance: 28.8 percent
Purdue has the eighth-best offense in the country, according to Slingshot. And while there are reasons to like the Panthers, they don’t seem to share many characteristics of successful underdogs — they don’t force many turnovers, for example, or shoot many 3s. So why the high chance of an upset?
The answer lies deep inside Slingshot’s calculations, where it uses a method called decision-tree analysis to determine which metrics are important for particular kinds of teams. You see, when a team falls below certain levels of performance in certain areas, other qualities no longer matter. Take Tarleton State as an example. They forced turnovers on 22.3 percent of opponent possessions this year, the third-best rate in the country. But they’re so bad on offense (and overall) that even if that number were 25 percent, or an unimaginable 40 percent, it wouldn’t give them meaningfully better real-life odds of beating Houston or Duke, had they reached the tourney. Slingshot’s decision trees let it keep and use only the data that has actually been significant historically for specific kinds of teams. And it turns out that High Point branches off just above the thresholds for a whole range of variables to matter.
Purdue is a 4-seed, but ranks just 63rd in defensive efficiency, because the Boilermakers allow opponents to shoot a whopping 56.4 percent from 2-point range, ranking 350th. Purdue also ranks just 150th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. And it plays at a very slow pace (65 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 297th). Against Akron, for instance, these considerations would hardly come into play. But High Point is just strong enough and plays at a slow enough tempo for those weaknesses to make a non-dominant giant like Purdue vulnerable in the first round. In fact, of the 10 games in our database most similar to Purdue vs. High Point, underdogs won four times. And in the most similar game of all — really, a dead ringer — 14-seed Mercer beat 3-seed Duke in 2014. Vulnerable generic giants are one of the themes of this year’s tournament. And this faceoff is worth at least a long look.
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns or Xavier Musketeers
Upset Chances: 26.9 percent vs. Xavier; 21.4 percent vs. Texas
Look, we’re fully capable of giving a TED Talk on Old Dominion’s offensive rebounding stats in 2010, so when we say there’s not a lot to say here, we really mean it. Our model says Illinois is the 15th-strongest team in the NCAA and the 22nd-strongest favorite. That there’s a difference of less than 1 point per 100 possessions between the basic strengths of Texas and Xavier. And none of these teams has any particularly dominant David or Goliath traits. The Musketeers rate as the somewhat stronger underdog because the Longhorns are somewhat worse at forcing turnovers, but that’s about it. This is where the field could have used a squad or two of the type we call “wounded assassins” — power-conference programs that are underrated, usually because of double-digit losses, but have strong metrics. Like, say, Ohio State or SMU this season. (But not West Virginia, which, just FYI, ranks nine spots below North Carolina in our power ratings and has even more boring over- and underdog stats than either Texas or Xavier.) In this case, what you see with traditional stats is what you get. From a giant-killing perspective, it’s the least sexy spot in this year’s bracket.
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Troy Trojans
Upset Chance: 17.6%
Basic numbers show a yawning gap of nearly 25 points per 100 possessions in strength between Kentucky, the 12th best team in the country according to our model’s power ratings, and Troy, which clocks in at 106th. But the Trojans do everything a team can to narrow that difference in a win-or-go-home setting. They keep things slow (ranking 229th in adjusted pace). They shoot a lot of 3s (even though they’ve been terrible at making them). They grab extra possessions—the Sun Bult champs have the sixth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country, at 38.6 percent. And, led by PG Tayton Conerway, who’s third in the nation with a 5.7 percent steal percentage, they constantly force live-ball turnovers. They’re a possession-building machine.
And Kentucky isn’t. The Wildcats’ offensive rebounding percentage (just 28.7 percent) ranks 221st in the country. Their offense (123.8 adjusted points per 100 possessions) is extremely efficient anyway, but the lack of a rebounding buffer against a cold-shooting night raises a significant red flag in our statistical model. Kentucky forces very few turnovers (ranking 341st), which compounds that problem. And they take and allow 3-point shots at very high rates, which injects risk into their play — as the Wildcats learned in losses to lesser teams such as Vanderbilt and Arkansas. Mark Pope has done a terrific job revamping UK, and Kentucky has had to overcome injuries to key players. But the Wildcats still carry some of the traits that left them vulnerable to traumatic first-round upsets in 2024 and 2022. And the Trojans are an aggressive bunch with a shot at turning into this year’s Oakland.
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville Cougars
Upset Chance: 5.6 percent
Hey, the Cougars have a shot here! Anyone remember when UCLA crushed UNC-Asheville, 86-56, in 2023? Or when Baylor pulverized Norfolk State, 85-49, the year before? These were top-2 seeds that were excellent on the perimeter and decided not to mail in their first-round contests against much weaker, stylistically plain opponents. And that’s what Slingshot sees here. In fact, of the 10 most similar games in our database to this matchup, favorites won all 10 … by an average margin of 37.3 points per 100 possessions. Fairly frequently, a 15- or 16-seed will pop out of our spreadsheets as an intriguing deep longshot. Not this year. The very top seeds are highly safe, and the very bottom seeds are extremely doomed.
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Wofford Terriers
Upset Chance: 5 percent
Even when the SoCon sends the team that was seeded sixth in its conference tournament to the big dance, you can be sure it launches a ton of bombs, and Wofford does (47.7 percent 3PA/FGA, ranking 23rd). And, yes, they have a great story in Kyler Filewich, the big man who has made the gutsy decision to shoot free throws underhanded. But Wofford allows almost as many long-range shots as it takes, and can’t defend outside (34.5 3P% allowed, ranking 234th) or inside (51.9 2-point FG% allowed, ranking 218th). They also force few turnovers. And in Tennessee, they’re up against one of the half-dozen best teams in the nation — and a squad that happens to limit opponents to shooting only 27.8 percent on 3s, the lowest rate in the nation. If Wofford starts to get trendy, buck the trend.
(Top photo of Sincere Parker: Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images; Illustration: Will Tullos, The Athletic)
