It’s less than a week until Selection Sunday, which means that the high-major conference tournaments are getting underway. And while we usually associate Cinderella teams with mid- or low-major schools, don’t be surprised if we see some unlikely runs amongst the nation’s strongest conference. Remember NC State last year?
My college basketball projection model uses advanced metrics, adjusted for opponents, from more than 10 years of data to create a projection for each team. From there, I simulate each college basketball tournament one million times to get projected odds for each team to secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Overall record 2022-2024: 19-43, +10.1 units, +28.9% ROI
2025 conference tournament best bets
ACC: North Carolina +2900 (risk 0.1 units)
American: UAB +700 (risk 0.25 units)
American: Tulane +2000 (risk 0.1 units)
American: Temple +3500 (risk 0.1 units)
Big East: UConn +410 (risk 0.5 units)
Big East: Marquette +600 (risk 0.25 units)
Big West: UC Irvine +180 (risk 1.0 units)
Big Ten: Purdue +750 (risk 0.25 units)
Big 12: Arizona +950 (risk 0.25 units)
Big 12: Baylor +4000 (risk 0.1 units)
Conference USA: Louisiana Tech +800 (risk 0.25 units)
Conference USA: Western Kentucky +2500 (risk 0.1 units)
Ivy: Princeton +1100 (risk 0.1 units)
MAAC: Mount St. Mary’s +1000 (risk 0.1 units)
MAC: Ohio +800 (risk 0.25 units)
MEAC: Howard +1700 (risk 0.1 units)
MEAC: North Carolina Central +1700 (risk 0.1 units)
Mountain West: Utah State +425 (risk 0.5 units)
Mountain West: Boise State +550 (risk 0.25 units)
Mountain West: Nevada +2000 (risk 0.1 units)
SEC: Tennessee +600 (risk 0.25 units)
SWAC: Bethune Cookman +750 (risk 0.25 units)
SWAC: Alabama State +800 (risk 0.25 units)
WAC: Seattle +500 (risk 0.25 units)
Below is the projection for the conference tournaments starting this week. Conference tournament projections that started last week can be found here. Projected win% is how often the team won the conference tournament in my simulations. Odds are from BetMGM.
ACC
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
68.7% |
-325 |
|
|
11.4% |
+550 |
|
|
8.9% |
+450 |
|
|
4.7% |
+2200 |
|
|
2.2% |
+5000 |
|
|
1.8% |
+6000 |
|
|
0.7% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.7% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.2% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.2% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
Big 12
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
47.8% |
+100 |
|
|
16.1% |
+350 |
|
|
11.7% |
+600 |
|
|
10.9% |
+900 |
|
|
4.7% |
+1000 |
|
|
4.0% |
+4000 |
|
|
3.1% |
+1000 |
|
|
0.8% |
+8000 |
|
|
0.4% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.3% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+50000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
Big East
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
30.7% |
+140 |
|
|
26.1% |
+350 |
|
|
17.3% |
+600 |
|
|
11.2% |
+450 |
|
|
6.5% |
+1000 |
|
|
6.4% |
+800 |
|
|
0.6% |
+8000 |
|
|
0.5% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.5% |
+8000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+30000 |
Big Ten
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
22.4% |
+250 |
|
|
19.0% |
+400 |
|
|
16.0% |
+650 |
|
|
12.9% |
+700 |
|
|
9.6% |
+625 |
|
|
8.6% |
+750 |
|
|
5.1% |
+1300 |
|
|
3.3% |
+2200 |
|
|
0.9% |
+6000 |
|
|
0.8% |
+5000 |
|
|
0.6% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.4% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.2% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+30000 |
SEC
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
33.1% |
+160 |
|
|
24.6% |
+250 |
|
|
18.7% |
+600 |
|
|
13.1% |
+450 |
|
|
3.5% |
+2200 |
|
|
2.2% |
+2500 |
|
|
1.7% |
+3000 |
|
|
1.0% |
+6000 |
|
|
0.8% |
+10000 |
|
|
0.3% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.3% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.2% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.2% |
+10000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+50000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+50000 |
American
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
36.0% |
+100 |
|
|
21.3% |
+225 |
|
|
15.8% |
+700 |
|
|
7.1% |
+1700 |
|
|
6.9% |
+1200 |
|
|
4.0% |
+3500 |
|
|
2.8% |
+5000 |
|
|
2.5% |
+3500 |
|
|
2.1% |
+12500 |
|
|
0.5% |
+10000 |
|
|
0.5% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.3% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+35000 |
A-10
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
46.6% |
-110 |
|
|
17.1% |
+400 |
|
|
11.9% |
+500 |
|
|
7.6% |
+800 |
|
|
4.1% |
+1500 |
|
|
2.9% |
+2000 |
|
|
2.9% |
+1800 |
|
|
2.3% |
+3000 |
|
|
1.8% |
+6600 |
|
|
1.4% |
+8000 |
|
|
1.0% |
+10000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
Big West
CUSA
Ivy
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
52.2% |
-190 |
|
|
27.0% |
+275 |
|
|
14.4% |
+1100 |
|
|
6.4% |
+850 |
MAAC
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
24.9% |
+250 |
|
|
23.9% |
+240 |
|
|
11.5% |
+800 |
|
|
10.7% |
+1000 |
|
|
9.9% |
+600 |
|
|
7.2% |
+700 |
|
|
4.5% |
+1700 |
|
|
3.7% |
+1400 |
|
|
2.2% |
+5000 |
|
|
1.6% |
+6000 |
MAC
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
29.9% |
+135 |
|
|
21.6% |
+200 |
|
|
17.8% |
+475 |
|
|
17.8% |
+800 |
|
|
5.0% |
+2000 |
|
|
3.1% |
+4500 |
|
|
2.5% |
+5500 |
|
|
2.3% |
+4500 |
MEAC
Mountain West
| team | projected win% | odds |
|---|---|---|
|
24.1% |
+425 |
|
|
18.8% |
+240 |
|
|
18.3% |
+550 |
|
|
14.8% |
+375 |
|
|
14.4% |
+550 |
|
|
7.1% |
+1800 |
|
|
2.1% |
+1600 |
|
|
0.2% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+50000 |
SWAC
WAC
(Photo of Samson Johnson: Joe Buglewicz / Getty Images)
