It was a banner season for Dansby Swanson and it couldn’t have come at a better time as he prepares to enter free agency for the first time in his career this offseason. Swanson hit .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs and a 116 wRC+. He also had the best season of his career defensively and was rewarded with the first Gold Glove Award of his career Tuesday.
His 2022 season should lead to a massive pay day this offseason. Keith Law released his Top 50 free agent rankings at The Athletic Wednesday and has Swanson third behind Carlos Correa and Trea Turner. Aaron Judge ranks fourth with Xander Bogaerts rounding out the top 5.
At the plate, he continued what has been a career-long trend of getting more aggressive in the zone, yet did so without expanding, posting a below-average chase rate again this year. You might get him to chase off-speed stuff down and over the plate, but otherwise, you have to come into or close to the zone, which seems to explain the boost in his contact quality. He might never be a strong on-base guy, but a plus defensive shortstop, which would still be a step down from his 2022 showing, who can hit 30 doubles and 25 homers a year is a very valuable player, and he should be looking for similar deals to Turner and Bogaerts, 6-8 years and $30 million-plus per year.
It is hard to see the Braves committing $30 million a season to Swanson, it would be a similar cost for any of the other top options. Someone will have to play shortstop and it remains to be seen whether or not they would consider going into the 2023 season with rookie Vaughn Grissom penciled into that role.
A bit further down Law’s list is Jake Odorizzi at No. 44. Odorizzi has a player option for $12.5 million next season that also includes a $6.25 million buyout. Law projects him for a one or two year deal at $5-8 million for next season. Perhaps Odorizzi takes the buyout with the Braves and tries to latch on somewhere else as a fifth starter. Given the Braves’ current options in the rotation, it is hard to see a role for Odorizzi in Atlanta barring something unforeseen.
