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March is here and while the NCAA Tournament is still a couple of weeks away, the Madness gets underway this week with some mid-major conference tournaments. Remember, your favorite underdog during March Madness has to start somewhere and this week is a good starting point to get familiar with these smaller schools.
My college basketball projection model uses advanced metrics, adjusted for opponents, from more than 10 years of data to create a projection for each team. From there, I simulate each college basketball tournament one million times to get projected odds for each team to secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Overall record 2022-2024: 19-43, +10.1 units, +28.9% ROI
2025 conference tournament best bets
Big South: Winthrop +1000 (risk 0.25 units)
Big South: Presbyterian +3000 (risk 0.1 units)
NEC: LIU +370 (risk 1.0 units)
NEC: Stonehill +3500 (risk 0.1 units)
Summit: South Dakota +2500 (risk 0.1 units)
MVC: Northern Iowa +500 (risk 0.5 units)
MVC: Belmont +1200 (risk 0.1 units)
WCC: Gonzaga -130 (risk 1.3 units)
CAA: William & Mary +1200 (risk 0.1 units)
Southern: Furman +800 (risk 0.25 units)
America East: Albany +1900 (risk 0.1 units)
Big Sky: Idaho State +1200 (risk 0.1 units)
Southland: Lamar +1300 (risk 0.1 units)
Below is the projection for 15 conference tournaments starting this week. Some have already started. These simulations are entering March 5 games. There will be another post with next week’s conference tournaments. Projected win% is how often the team won the conference tournament in my simulations. Odds are from BetMGM.
America East
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
45.1% |
+100 |
|
|
28.9% |
+180 |
|
|
9.7% |
+800 |
|
|
8.1% |
+1400 |
|
|
5.5% |
+1400 |
|
|
1.4% |
+5000 |
|
|
0.9% |
+8000 |
|
|
0.4% |
+15000 |
Atlantic Sun
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
Lipscomb |
51.3% |
-200 |
|
North Alabama |
33.5% |
+250 |
|
Queens |
7.8% |
+2200 |
|
Jacksonville |
7.4% |
+1200 |
Already eliminated: Stetson, Central Arkansas, Eastern Kentucky, Austin Peay, North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast
Big Sky
Big South
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
53.2% |
-250 |
|
|
14.4% |
+900 |
|
|
9.4% |
+650 |
|
|
8.6% |
+900 |
|
|
6.5% |
+1500 |
|
|
4.7% |
+3000 |
|
|
1.7% |
+10000 |
|
|
1.3% |
+8000 |
|
|
0.2% |
+25000 |
CAA
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
29.5% |
-135 |
|
|
19.3% |
+375 |
|
|
18.5% |
+300 |
|
|
9.1% |
+1200 |
|
|
4.5% |
+2000 |
|
|
3.9% |
+1300 |
|
|
3.9% |
+3000 |
|
|
3.8% |
+2000 |
|
|
2.8% |
+4000 |
|
|
2.2% |
+4000 |
|
|
1.6% |
+8000 |
|
|
0.8% |
+5500 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
Horizon
Already eliminated: IU Indy, Green Bay, Detroit
Missouri Valley
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
30.0% |
-110 |
|
|
23.7% |
+325 |
|
|
18.6% |
+500 |
|
|
9.9% |
+1200 |
|
|
5.8% |
+1500 |
|
|
4.3% |
+2000 |
|
|
2.3% |
+3000 |
|
|
1.6% |
+8000 |
|
|
1.6% |
+5000 |
|
|
1.0% |
+12500 |
|
|
0.8% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.5% |
+20000 |
NEC
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
Cent. Connecticut St. |
51.5% |
-210 |
|
Long Island |
27.7% |
+350 |
|
Fairleigh Dickinson |
6.6% |
+1600 |
|
Saint Francis (PA) |
6.0% |
+1600 |
|
Stonehill |
4.0% |
+3000 |
|
Wagner |
2.7% |
+2500 |
|
Le Moyne |
1.0% |
+6000 |
|
Chicago State |
0.5% |
+15000 |
Ohio Valley
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
Southeast Missouri |
34.9% |
+160 |
|
SIU Edwardsville |
29.3% |
+240 |
|
Little Rock |
15.1% |
+400 |
|
Tennessee State |
12.5% |
+500 |
|
Tennessee Martin |
2.4% |
+3000 |
|
Tennessee Tech |
2.1% |
+5000 |
|
Morehead State |
2.0% |
+6600 |
|
Lindenwood |
1.7% |
+6000 |
Patriot
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
42.1% |
-120 |
|
|
18.2% |
+325 |
|
|
15.8% |
+550 |
|
|
7.2% |
+1500 |
|
|
7.2% |
+1500 |
|
|
4.7% |
+3000 |
|
|
2.6% |
+5000 |
|
|
2.1% |
+3000 |
Southern
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
21.8% |
+250 |
|
|
18.9% |
+325 |
|
|
16.1% |
+400 |
|
|
14.9% |
+600 |
|
|
13.7% |
+800 |
|
|
12.7% |
+650 |
|
|
1.1% |
+8000 |
|
|
0.6% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.2% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
Southland
Summit
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
24.0% |
+220 |
|
|
23.3% |
+260 |
|
|
20.3% |
+230 |
|
|
17.3% |
+475 |
|
|
5.9% |
+2500 |
|
|
3.5% |
+4000 |
|
|
2.9% |
+4000 |
|
|
2.2% |
+6600 |
|
|
0.6% |
+25000 |
Sun Belt
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
35.7% |
+200 |
|
|
19.2% |
+350 |
|
|
15.6% |
+300 |
|
|
12.4% |
+400 |
|
|
5.4% |
+2500 |
|
|
4.2% |
+2000 |
|
|
4.2% |
+3500 |
|
|
1.5% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.9% |
+20000 |
|
|
0.6% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.3% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
Already eliminated: Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Monroe
WCC
| team | projected win% | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
63.9% |
-130 |
|
|
21.7% |
+135 |
|
|
8.6% |
+1700 |
|
|
4.0% |
+2500 |
|
|
1.2% |
+5000 |
|
|
0.4% |
+15000 |
|
|
0.1% |
+25000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
|
|
0.0% |
+30000 |
(Photo of Graham Ike: Soobum Im / Getty Images)
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