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ACC men’s basketball preview: UNC on top, but Duke, Virginia and Miami lurk

The Athletic


So long, #OneBidACC.

And good riddance. Say what you will about the Atlantic Coast Conference last season — plenty already has been — but good luck snickering at any league with the nation’s No. 1 preseason team and two other recent title winners in the top 18. Behold, The Athletic’s ACC men’s basketball preview:

Two dominant storylines

Is UNC’s March magic replicable?

No, you’re not misremembering: North Carolina really was the nation’s No. 35 team through Feb. 28, per BartTorvik’s efficiency rankings. The team was … fine? Just your normal, not-exceptional NCAA Tournament side. And then the calendar flipped to March, and all of sudden, wham: No. 1 team in the country, per those same metrics.

So which UNC shows up this season? In other words, will Hubert Davis’ late-year adjustments — especially defensively — carry over? The team’s lofty preseason listing suggests widespread optimism, but replacing Brady Manek’s 3-point production won’t be easy, even if Northwestern transfer Pete Nance — who will start in Manek’s place — was a great portal pickup.

Coach K is gone, so what does Duke look like under Jon Scheyer?

This isn’t just harping on the blue bloods; it’s wondering what a blue blood looks like without its chief architect, the winningest coach in men’s college basketball history. Scheyer knows Duke inside and out from his decade-plus as a player and assistant coach, but he’s never called the shots before. How does he handle that — especially with 11 new players, seven of them freshmen? (Yes, it helps that those freshmen constituted the nation’s top-rated recruiting class, but still.) Scheyer is widely hailed as a basketball whiz; time to show it, all whilst laying a foundation for Duke’s future.

Three players to watch

Armando Bacot, UNC: The ACC Preseason Player of the Year, for good reason. Bacot made NCAA history last season with his double-double dominance; now he’s gunning for UNC’s all-time rebounding record, which he should overtake in January. It’s not inconceivable he becomes the team’s first National Player of the Year since Tyler Hansbrough.

Isaiah Wong, Miami: Perennially underrated, all Wong did last season was take Miami to the Elite Eight and earn All-ACC honors. The Hurricanes are a sneaky sleeper to win the league, and if that happens, we’ll be talking about him and Nijel Pack as one of America’s best backcourts.

Dariq Whitehead, Duke: Odd to highlight a player currently out with injury? Not when said player is a potential top-five pick and contender for national freshman honors. Whitehead’s fractured foot, depending on when he returns, could alter Duke’s season-long trajectory — for better, or for worse.

GO DEEPER

How Duke’s Dariq Whitehead, Derek Lively II fit into Jon Scheyer’s vision

Top newcomer

Nijel Pack, Miami: Probably more famous for his (widely-advertised) six-figure NIL payment than his play at this point, Pack will soon show ACC fans why he commanded such a bag. He averaged 17.4 points and shot 43.6 percent from 3 last season for Kansas State, and he could be the country’s top transfer.

Coach who needs to win

Kevin Keatts, NC State: Critical injuries, none-and-done recruits, and the pandemic-shortened season have cost Keatts dearly: in the win-loss column, but also perception-wise. He’s a player’s coach running an up-tempo offense, but another season in the ACC cellar would be too much for a proud Wolfpack program to overlook.

Predicted league finish

1. North Carolina: Four returning starters, two potential All-Americans, a four-year stretch-forward with NBA lineage, and more depth than Hubert Davis could dream of last season. What’s not to like? If anything, the fact North Carolina hasn’t had expectations this high in five years.

2. Virginia: Experience is the name of the game, and with five returning starters — including Kihei Clark, who may never stop playing college basketball — Virginia has plenty. The Cavaliers posted their worst defensive efficiency since 2011 last season, and Tony Bennett is too good of a coach to let that happen again. Adding stretchy-big Ben Vander Plas, from Ohio, was an underrated addition.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Can the Virginia Way still win? Tony Bennett is about to find out

3. Duke: With Whitehead and Dereck Lively II — the nation’s top two freshmen — currently out with injuries, plus a new head coach, we might not see the best version of Duke until conference play. But there’s too much talent in Durham for the Blue Devils to fall far, especially with junior point guard Jeremy Roach running the show. If he plays like he did in March, Duke will be as lethal as ever.


Miami, led by dynamic guard Isaiah Wong, could be dangerous in the ACC. (Jamie Sabau / USA Today)

4. Miami: It wouldn’t be shocking if the Hurricanes made a surprise run at the conference crown, fueled by Wong, Pack, and Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier. Jim Larrañaga always designs his offense around his personnel, and he quite possibly has more firepower than last season.

5. Florida State: Injuries and inconsistency led to an abnormally down season in Tallahassee, but Leonard Hamilton has enough long, lanky bodies to create the defensive havoc he desires. Matthew Cleveland didn’t go one-and-done, but he has all the tools to be a breakout star as a sophomore, assuming he’s regained confidence in his outside shot. But perhaps the most intriguing player on the roster is Spanish freshman Baba Miller, a 6-foot-11 forward with guard-like skills who chose FSU over Gonzaga. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, he will be suspended for the first 16 games.

6. Notre Dame: That whole “surround four vets with one stud freshman” tactic worked wonders last season, so run it back, right? In comes five-star guard J.J. Starling to fill the void left by Blake Wesley, and he’ll fit nicely next to Notre Dame’s longest-tenured trio of Cormac Ryan, Dane Goodwin, and Nate Laszewski. Given the sheer offensive talent at Mike Brey’s disposal — defense, shmefense — Notre Dame feels like the last semi-lock from the league to go dancing.

7. Virginia Tech: Keve Aluma — the literal and figurative centerpiece of Virginia Tech’s offense the last few seasons — is finally gone, meaning offensive guru Mike Young gets to go back to the drawing board. More will be asked of Justyn Mutts and Hunter Cattoor, two key contributors from last season’s ACC tournament title team, but getting this group back to the Big Dance would be Young’s most impressive feat thus far in Blacksburg.

8. Syracuse: Both Boeheim brothers are gone; could their famous father be next? Jim Boeheim — the oldest active coach in the men’s game, turning 78 in November — has given no indications this will be his last season, but he has to walk away at some point … right? Joe Girard and Jesse Edwards are the known quantities here, but the Orange’s tournament hopes hinge on what Boeheim gets out of stud freshman guard Judah Mintz and athletic-but-raw sophomore Benny Williams.

9. Wake Forest: Steve Forbes can portal with the best of them, but good luck topping last year’s haul, headlined by ACC Player of the Year Alondes Williams and first-rounder Jake LaRavia. Plus, if those two guys couldn’t push the Demon Deacons back into the tournament, what will it take? Damari Monsanto is already one of the ACC’s better 3-point shooters and should break out, and Davien Williamson is reliable, too, but Forbes needs one of his latest transfers — like Delaware big Andrew Carr or Florida guard Tyree Appleby — to take a step to keep Wake competitive in a deeper league.

10. Clemson: If not for his offseason injury, there’s a good shot forward P.J. Hall earns some preseason conference honors. Alas, now it’s a matter of how long he’s out, and how long it takes him to get fully up to speed. In 12 seasons with the Tigers, coach Brad Brownell’s team has only made the NCAA Tournament three times — and if it misses again, the chatter about his job security will only grow louder.

11. NC State: It’ll be the Terquavion Smith show in Raleigh, and rightfully so, after the projected first-round pick opted to return for his sophomore season. If Smith doesn’t lead the league in scoring — and field-goal attempts, if we’re being honest — he’ll be right at the top of the pack (pun intended). Former Big South Player of the Year D.J. Burns fills the Manny Bates-sized hole in Keatts’ rotation, but years of early defections and no-show recruits have taken their toll on the Wolfpack’s overall talent level.

12. Boston College: BC might surprise some folks this season, a testament to the early progress Earl Grant has made there. Quinten Post developed pretty dramatically over the course of last season, and if there’s another leap for him to make, he’ll pair nicely with graduate guard Makai Ashton-Langford and sophomore Jaeden Zackery. Keep your eyes on freshman Prince Aligbe, too; he’s in position to start for the Eagles, and there’s been positive buzz about the 6-6 wing this preseason.

13. Pitt: Jeff Capel inherited an abject disaster when he arrived in the spring of 2018, but entering his fifth year, there are few signs of long-term growth. John Hugley is a powerful post who would start for a number for ACC teams, and Jamarius Burton and Nike Sibande are solid rotation pieces, but there just aren’t many gamebreakers on this roster. To make matters worse, the Panthers’ most-dynamic freshman, Dior Johnson, is suspended indefinitely.

14. Louisville: Welp, let’s see how much player development Kenny Payne really has in him. The former Kentucky and New York Knicks assistant has a penchant for making players better, but that reputation will be put to the test early, especially with returners El Ellis, Sydney Curry and Jae’Lyn Withers. Former five-star recruit Brandon Huntley-Hatfield could be intriguing, but expectations for Payne’s first season are predictably low.

15. Georgia Tech: Good thing Josh Pastner radiates positivity.

(Top photo of Armando Bacot: Bill Streicher / USA Today)





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