Single Post

Spencer Schwellenbach takes the mound as the Atlanta Braves look to take series against Phillies

The Atlanta Braves are taking on the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies, going for the series win after losing by one run last night in a game where the Phillies came back late to take the win.

Cristopher Sánchez, who is showing that last year was no fluke, will be taking the mound for the Phillies. Emerging Braves star Spencer Schwellenbach will be taking the mound for the Braves. Schwellenbach has been solid since the start of July.

In his past seven starts Schwellenbach owns a 2.86 ERA, 2.94 FIP and 53 strikeouts to only five walks. Hitters have slashed .212/.240/.364 against him during that time. If you look at his underlying metrics, they are fantastic. He is in the top two percent of MLB in chase rate, and in the best eighteen percent for expected ERA (xERA). Him only giving up five walks in his last seven games probably seemed impressive, because it is. For the entire season, only five percent of qualified pitchers have a lower walk rate.

If Schwellenbach had pitched all season like he has been since July, he would be in talks for Rookie of the Year. He probably would not beat out Skenes or Merrill, but he would be in the mix.

Schwellenbach has faced the Phillies in a previous start this season, in which he did well. He pitched six innings while giving up seven hits (all singles), zero walks, six strikeouts, and one earned run. In that game it should be noted that it was in that short window where both Harper and Schwarber were out with injuries. Of the players that were still active then, Rojas, Castellanos, Marsh, Stott, and Turner each had one single against Schwellenbach.

Cristopher Sánchez has a 3.46 ERA and a 1.254 WHIP over 140.1 innings for the Phillies this year. He joined the league in 2021 and prior to this season, he had never pitched more than 99.1 innings when he converted to a full time starter last season.

It appears that fatigue may be getting to him because he is taking the opposite trend of Schwellenbach. Since the start of July, Sánchez has a 5.55 ERA with only twenty-nine strikeouts to ten walks over 47.0 innings. To be fair, his FIP of 3.67 shows he has been a bit unlucky in the ERA arena. Hitters have not struggled to get hits against him though, slashing .285/.320/.394 in that span.

Although the Phillies have faced the Braves eight times already this season, Sánchez did not make any of those starts. He has faced some of the Braves in the past though. He has largely done well against them. Soler, Arcia, Harris, Laureano, and Murphy are hitless against him, albeit with five at-bats or less.

Ozuna has had success in four at-bats with a 1.350 OPS and .500 average. d’Arnaud has only had two at-bats against him, but was able to garner a 1.500 OPS in the limited sample size. Olson has seen him the most with six at-bats and has struggled to a .334 OPS.

This month the Phillies have a 9-9 record but the Braves have not been able to capitalize on it with a 9-10 themselves. Time is running out for the Braves to catch the Phillies but a win tonight would go a long way, especially with the Braves still having four more games against them at the end of the month.