• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions: St. Brown enters his fourth NFL season with three straight 100-plus-target seasons in tow.
• WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: Last year’s overall WR1 is a shoo-in to finish top 12 at the position in 2024.
• Dominate fantasy football season with promo code PFF25: Unlock all of PFF’s fantasy content and tools, including full access to the fantasy football mock draft simulator, for 25% off using promo code PFF25.
Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
The wide receiver position’s average draft position in fantasy football continues rising each season, requiring surefire, elite performances for the position to return value.
Identifying costly veteran wide receivers with stable talent profiles is critical in this regard. Here, we break down three NFL wide receivers who are likely to repeat as WR1 finishers after producing WR1 season-long finishes in both half-points-per-reception and PPR scoring formats last year.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
St. Brown is an excellent candidate to repeat as a fantasy football WR1, thanks to his high-volume usage, brilliant deployment and sterling efficiency. His 92.1 PFF overall grade in 2023 tied for fourth among 30 wide receivers with at least 2,300 offensive snaps from 2021 to 2023.
The Lions wideout has been a high-volume target-earner since his 2021 rookie season, earning 115-plus targets all three seasons. He caught fire from Weeks 13-18 as a rookie, earning double-digit targets each week while producing 2.75 yards per route run, the fourth-best mark among 33 wide receivers with at least 35 targets during that span.
St. Brown carried the momentum into his 2022 season, becoming one among just 15 NFL wide receivers to earn 100-plus first-read, regular-season targets that year (108) before repeating the feat in 2023 with 118. Among 34 wide receivers who earned at least 145 first-read targets over the past two full NFL seasons, St. Brown ranked fifth in missed tackles forced (26) and fourth across the board in target rate (31.6%), yards per route run (2.96) and yards after the catch per reception (4.7).
St. Brown produced a WR1 finish in 2022, totaling 106 receptions, 1,161 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 139 regular-season targets. Despite St. Brown’s attention-getting performance, the following season he advantageously logged 332 receiving snaps against linebackers and safeties in primary coverage, the highest such sum among wide receivers. Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s brilliant play designs help St. Brown regularly avoid the opposition’s No. 1 cornerback and, fortunately for St. Brown, Johnson remained in Detroit this offseason despite fielding inquiries for vacant head coach positions.
Substantial inside-outside pre-snap usage should be available for St. Brown in 2024. Among 64 wide receivers with at least 150 receiving snaps against linebackers and safeties in primary coverage, his 2.44 yards per route run tied for fifth and his 26.5% target rate ranked third.
Even without a schematic advantage, St. Brown’s success is imminent. Among 32 wide receivers who earned at least 35 targets from 2022-2023 on plays where they received double coverage, St. Brown ranks fourth in yards after the catch per reception (5.2) and third across the board in target rate (26.1), yards per route run (2.83) and missed tackles forced (nine).
He notably finished as the overall WR3 from Weeks 1-17 in both PPR and half-PPR scoring formats, despite breakout seasons from 2023 rookie teammates Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta.
Among 33 running backs with at least 40 targets, Gibbs ranked 13th in PFF receiving grade (67.4), ninth in target rate (22.3%) and tied for sixth in forced missed tackles (19). He finished as an RB1 in both scoring formats.
LaPorta miraculously finished as the overall TE1 in both formats, earning an 81.8 PFF receiving grade, the fourth-best mark among 31 tight ends with at least 45 targets. He ranks eighth or better in missed tackles forced (13), explosive pass plays (18), target rate (23.9%) and yards per route run (1.77).
St. Brown is an excellent candidate to repeat as a fantasy football WR1.
WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb finished as the Weeks 1-17 overall WR1 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats last year, maintaining elite efficiency and good health despite unrelenting target volume. He is an excellent candidate to repeat as a fantasy football WR1. His 91.1 PFF overall grade ranked third among 32 wide receivers with at least 830 offensive snaps.
The star wideout ranked first at his position in 2023 regular-season targets (179), receptions (135), third- and fourth-down receptions (38) and green-zone targets (17), and fantasy managers should expect similar usage in 2024. Dallas’ minimal skill position turnover preserves Lamb’s lackluster target competition.
The offense swapped out running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver Michael Gallup for free-agent signee running back Ezekiel Elliott and sixth-round rookie wide receiver Ryan Flournoy. Among 34 running backs with at least 215 receiving snaps in 2023, Pollard’s 51.4 PFF receiving grade ranked 32nd and Elliott’s 66.3 PFF receiving grade ranked 16th. Among 64 wide receivers with at least 415 receiving snaps, Gallup’s 54.5 PFF receiving grade ranked 52nd. And among 119 FCS wide receivers with at least 300 receiving snaps, Flournoy’s 80.6 PFF receiving grade ranked 19th.
Lamb is the only Dallas pass-catcher to have earned 100-plus regular-season targets last year. Tight end Jake Ferguson (96 targets) and wide receiver Brandin Cooks (82 targets) are the only Dallas teammates to clear 75 regular-season targets, though 74 of Ferguson’s targets and 66 of Cooks’ targets were designed, first-read opportunities. (Both players finished with sub-15.0% target rates on non-first-read, regular-season targets.)
Ferguson’s 76.6 PFF receiving grade ranked eighth among 31 tight ends with at least 45 targets, and Cooks’ 69.9 mark ranked 48th among 64 wide receivers with at least 65 targets
The table below ranks in parentheses Lamb’s 2023 receiving data among 33 wide receivers with at least 105 targets through the playoffs.
| NFL WR Receiving | CeeDee Lamb |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 91.2 (T-No. 4) |
| Target Rate | 28.5% (No. 3) |
| Slot-Target Rate | 16.3% (No. 1) |
| Yards/Route Run | 2.69 (No. 4) |
| Avg. Depth of Target | 10.4 (No. 22) |
| Yards After Catch per Rec. | 4.9 (No. 13) |
| Catch Rate | 73.1% (No. 6) |
| Missed Tackles Forced per Rec. | 0.14 (No. 15) |
| Explosive Pass Plays Rate | 32.6% (No. 16) |
While Lamb is frequently used in the high-value area of the field, 10-plus yards downfield and between the painted numbers, he also thrives against double coverage. He is one among just 14 wide receivers who earned at least 25 targets thrown to the aforementioned area of the field, totaling 29 (the ninth most) while averaging 15.86 yards per route run on qualifying routes (the third best).
Lamb was charted as receiving double coverage on 192 receiving snaps last season, the most among NFL wide receivers. He is one of just 20 wide receivers who earned at least 25 targets on plays where he received double coverage, tying for second in targets (37) and eighth in yards per route run (2.37).
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Brown has functioned as a bona fide target hog since joining the team in 2022, finishing as a top-five WR1 from Weeks 1-17 in both half-PPR and PPR scoring formats in 2022 and 2023. He remains a strong candidate to repeat WR1 season-long results in his age-27 season, thanks to elite target volume, exceptional efficiency and high-value downfield usage. His 91.0 PFF overall grade from 2022-2023 ranked fourth among 33 wide receivers with at least 1,600 offensive snaps over the span.
Brown maintains elite overall target volume and first-read target volume despite fourth-year wide receiver DeVonta Smith’s ascension. Both players have remained largely available on game day despite occasionally suffering injuries. Brown exited Phildelphia’s Week 18 game with a knee injury last year and missed the ensuing wild-card matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Smith missed the Week 18 matchup altogether due to a sprained ankle.
The table below compares Brown’s and Smith’s 2023 and 2022 target data, excluding the aforementioned Week 18 and wild-card games from last season.
| Regular-Season Target Data | A.J. Brown | DeVonta Smith |
| 2023: Targets | 151 | 112 |
| 2023: Target Rate | 26.5% | 18.8% |
| 2023: First-Read Targets | 131 | 74 |
| 2023: First-Read Target Rate | 34.1% | 18.4% |
| 2022: Targets | 158 | 154 |
| 2022: Target Rate | 23.8% | 22.1% |
| 2022: First-Read Targets | 136 | 104 |
| 2022: First-Read Target Rate | 28.7% | 21.1% |
Fantasy managers should expect Brown to maintain a healthy target gap over Smith again in 2024.
Brown’s respective 152 and 137 regular-season target totals in 2023 and 2022 ranked eighth and tied for 11th among wide receivers.
The table below ranks in parentheses Brown’s 2023 and 2022 combined receiving data among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 195 total targets over the past two seasons.
| NFL WR Receiving in 2023 & 2022 | A.J. Brown |
| PFF Receiving Grade | 91.3 (No. 5) |
| Target Rate | 25.0% (No. 11) |
| Yards per Route Run | 2.49 (No. 5) |
| Avg. Depth of Target | 12.6 (No. 9) |
| Yards After Catch per Rec. | 5.3 (No. 5) |
| Yards per Rec. | 15.0 (No. 6) |
| Catch Rate | 66.8% (No. 17) |
| Deep-Target Rate | 20.0% (No. 10) |
| Missed Tackles Forced/ per Rec. | 0.19 (No. 3) |
| Explosive Pass Plays Rate | 34.3% (No. 12) |
Brown is one of just 19 wide receivers who earned at least 45 targets 20-plus yards downfield over the past two seasons. His 62 qualifying targets, 24 receptions, 15.10 yards per route run and 8.3 yards after the catch per reception all rank top seven, and his 39.0 yards per reception ranks second.
