This article dives deep into some interesting stats that may not always be mentioned when discussing a player, but they’re interesting to know. We will talk about wide receivers who play their division six times throughout the season. A stat like that is essential since they impact a third of their games.
These veteran wide receivers have played in their division for at least three-plus seasons, and ten have been with their team for at least three seasons. We will discuss some trends we can find with these wide receivers. This will be a two-part series since there are so many veteran receivers.
Ja’Marr Chase – CIN
| Teams | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Ctch% | FPs (3 Years) |
| Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 84.2 | 13.7 | 0.5 | 62% | 14.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 50.4 | 9.3 | 0.2 | 57% | 9.1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 78.5 | 15.0 | 0.8 | 70% | 15.0 |
Starting with the Ravens, Chase has produced the most yards per game against them. He usually gets a big workload in the offense in those games. Chase had one of those 200-yard games against the Ravens in 2021, but since then, he has not been elite. In the last two games in Baltimore, Chase has struggled to produce great fantasy points for his position. He has a combined eight fantasy points in those games. Chase had been under ten fantasy points in three of his last four games against the Ravens. The hope of a healthy Joe Burrow will bring Chase back to his 2021 numbers.
Surprisingly, Chase hasn’t done all that great against the Browns in fantasy in the last three years. Chase has been under ten fantasy points in four of his five career games. Hopefully, having Burrow back will change Chase’s luck against the Browns in the future. The issue is that the Browns have an elite defense and continue to cause problems for the Bengals’ wideouts.
The Steelers are the team Chase has played the least in his career. He has done the best in fantasy versus the Steelers, averaging 15 fantasy points. He also has a 70% catch rate, which is impressive, with 28 targets. When Chase has at least five-plus targets, he can produce against the Steelers. Chase should continue to shine against Pittsburgh, as I’d expect more competitive high-scoring games from them in 2024.
Tee Higgins – CIN
We stick with the Bengals with Tee Higgins. He seems to do well against this division. The Ravens have been a team that Higgins has figured out how to beat on the field. It’s not as consistent as you may think. Higgins has only played the Ravens four times in the last three years. He has two games over 24 fantasy points. Higgins has double-digit targets in three of the previous four games. He can do well in those matchups. Even in 2023, Higgins dominated the Ravens with 89 yards and two touchdowns. Higgins is frustrating, but he can produce against the Ravens.
Just like Chase, Higgins struggles against the Browns in fantasy. He averages under 40 yards per game. He has only played against the Browns three times in the last three years. In two games, he did have ten and twelve fantasy points. Unfortunately, in week one last year, he had eight targets on no production. It may still be a mystery if Higgins can produce in fantasy. I wouldn’t hold much faith in Higgins being able to produce versus the Browns.
There has been another team that Higgins can produce against in fantasy. He averages close to 95 receiving yards and half a touchdown per game versus Pittsburgh. In their last four starts against the Steelers, he scored over 20 fantasy points in three. The one time he didn’t is when he only played 26% of the offensive snaps in week one of the 2022 season. As long as Higgins is healthy, he should continue to produce against the Steelers.
Courtland Sutton – DEN
Sutton has one of the worst game averages against his divisions. He has been over ten fantasy points in four of his last six games against the Raiders. His Week 18 in 2023, where he had 0.7 fantasy points, lowered his fantasy point average. It’s hard to judge a player in Week 18 for most reasons. Sutton seems to average more targets when playing in Las Vegas, which should continue in 2024. He should continue to play well in fantasy against a rebuilding Raiders defense.
The Chiefs have been the team Sutton has struggled against most in fantasy and real life. While he did better in 2023 with twelve and nine fantasy points in games, overall, it has not been great. His other three games were under six fantasy points, as that was due to bad quarterback play. The question is, can this new group help Sutton, or will we see more poor performances? It seems to be leaning the wrong way for Sutton. The Chiefs’ secondary continues to be great despite some losses there. Sutton is a player to steer clear of.
The Chargers have also done well at stopping Sutton from doing all that much. He only averages three receptions per game and a 7.4-point fantasy average finish. He has been under ten fantasy points in three of the last five games. Even his best game has only been 13.7 fantasy points. Sutton isn’t getting the targets to perform with under five per game. He looks like a deep threat who sees few opportunities in games against the Chargers.
CeeDee Lamb – DAL
We move over to Lamb, who has had a fantastic career against his division. The Giants have been a team that Lamb dominates against. He averages 90 yards per game and has a high catch rate against the New York secondary. He has been over 13 fantasy points in four of the last six games. The only times he didn’t was in a blowout win in week one of 2023 and 2021. Both games were away games, but I wouldn’t let that stop you. Lamb at home is an auto start, averaging 21 fantasy points.
The Eagles are another team in the division that Lamb plays well against. Lamb has stepped up against the Eagles the last two years, being over ten fantasy points. Even in 2023, he was over 15 fantasy points in both games. Lamb should continue to be elite against a young Eagles secondary.
Surprisingly enough, Lamb has done the worst against the Commanders but averages 15 fantasy points. He averages under 60 yards per game but has the highest per-game touchdown rate. Lamb has been over ten fantasy points in the last five games. He hasn’t broken 100 yards in any of the previous six games but has scored five touchdowns. Lamb should continue to play well in 2024 against the Commanders and the rest of the division. They don’t seem to have an answer for Lamb’s production.
Amon-Ra St.Brown – DET
St. Brown has done decent against the NFC North since his time in the league. The Bears have been the team he has done the least against. Despite an outstanding catch rate, he averages only 62 yards and a low touchdown rate. Since joining the league, St. Brown has only been over ten fantasy points twice against the Bears. In 2021, St. Brown played the Bears twice before he broke out in the final six games. Last year, he would have a 17-point game at home and a three-point game in Chicago. The Lions have blown out the Bears at times, so St. Brown’s services may not have been needed as much.
Next up is the Packers, against whom St. Brown has done a little better. His catch rate drops, but his yards pick up just slightly. Since his 2021 breakout stretch, St. Brown has played well against the Packers. In 2022, he would do decent, but no touchdowns. Last year, St. Brown was able to average 14 fantasy points in both games against the Packers. He is improving as he grows as a player.
The team that St. Brown has done very well against is the Vikings. He averages close to 100 yards and averages 16 fantasy points per game. St. Brown has averaged ten fantasy points in each game versus the Vikings. Last year, he crushed them, getting 100 yards and a touchdown in both games. The Vikings’ secondary over the years has shown holes, allowing St. Brown to thrive in fantasy football. Place your bets when St. Brown plays the Vikings in 2024.
Michael Pittman Jr. – IND
Pittman has succeeded in the AFC South as a reliable option. The Texans have been the team Pittman has done the least against. He averages the fewest yards and fantasy points. Pittman has been split in fantasy with three good and three poor games. He does better playing in Houston than he does in Indianapolis. He’ll average 15 fantasy points in Houston compared to seven at home.
The Jaguars are the team in the division that Pittman thrives against. He averages the most yards and has the highest catch rate. Pittman has had over 15 fantasy points in four of the last five games he has played the Jaguars. Pittman’s lowest game was a 9.8-point finish, five receptions for 71 yards. In his last two home games versus the Jaguars, he scored 19 fantasy points. Pittman should continue to thrive against the Jaguars in fantasy.
The Titans are a decent team that Pittman has done well playing. He has his lowest catch rate but finishes with 13 fantasy points. Pittman has done well when he sees at least nine targets in a game. He had less than seven fantasy points in two games where he failed to reach that. The 2024 season will tell a lot if Pittman can continue to dominate his division with Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
Nico Collins – HOU
| Teams | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Ctch% | FPs (3 Years) |
| Indianapolis (Bal) Colts | 5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 82.2 | 18.7 | 0.4 | 78.6% | 12.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 44.8 | 14.0 | 0.2 | 64.0% | 7.3 |
| Ten Titans/Hou Oilers | 3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 52.0 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 64.7% | 7.3 |
We are still within the AFC South but moving to Collins. He hasn’t played his division too much over his three years in the league. The Colts have been the team Collins has thrived in fantasy. He averages 12.8 fantasy points, thanks to an average of 82 yards. Most of Collins’ production only came in 2023. In 2022 & 2021, he has ten combined fantasy points in three games. It wasn’t until CJ Stroud that Collins got unlocked in fantasy. He would end up producing 24-plus fantasy points in both games last year. Hopefully, this is a sign of more things for the fourth-year receiver.
The Jaguars have been a team that Collins has struggled against more, with only an average of 7.3 fantasy points. He has his lowest yardage and catch rate against Jacksonville. Collins has been under ten fantasy points in four of the five games. It’s hard to take Collins seriously since his first two years in the league were with bad quarterback play. Last season, Collins split between good and bad games in the series. He had one game where he had over 100 yards and a touchdown.
Collins has only played the Titans three times in his career. He missed one game in 2023 and both in 2022. Collin’s numbers are low for fantasy points since he hasn’t scored against the Titans yet. He has gone over 60 yards in the last two games versus the Titans. Hopefully, with this improved offense, we can see Collins raise this number.
Joshua Palmer – LAC
Palmer is finally getting a shot with the starting lineup this season. He was out for injury in both games versus the Broncos last year. In week six of 2022, Palmer had nine receptions on 12 targets for 57 yards. We could see similar numbers in 2024 from Palmer. His other games as the backup were low production, but he has one of the best catch rates versus the Broncos.
The Chiefs have been a team where Palmer has his best production of 54 yards and half a touchdown per game. His fantasy points are the highest among any other team in the division. Over the last two years, Palmer has put up great numbers against the Chiefs. He has 11 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. He was playing as the starter as Mike Williams dealt with injuries. Palmer showed the ability to step up, or the Chargers always play high-scoring against the Chiefs.
The Raiders have been a team Palmer has done solid against. He does better playing on the road against the Raiders. He has posted 13 fantasy points on the road. At home, he averaged just six fantasy points, but Palmer may have only been the third receiver in those games compared to being the second receiver in those away games. Palmer has posted nine or more fantasy points in four of his last five games against the Raiders.
Cooper Kupp – LAR
| Teams | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Ctch% | FPs (3 Years) |
| Ari (StL/Chi) Cardinals | 12 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 67.9 | 11.48 | 0.4 | 71.0% | 12.9 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 62.0 | 10.15 | 0.3 | 71.4% | 19.7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 64.6 | 12.05 | 0.5 | 66.3% | 14.8 |
Kupp has posted great numbers against this division. The Cardinals have given up the fewest fantasy points per game to Kupp over the last three years. He has more yards against Arizona than any other division opponent. Kupp has posted under ten fantasy points for his receiving ability in four of the last six games. In one game, he scored a rushing touchdown, which would be three of six, but we can’t count on that rushing touchdown. If Kupp is healthy, he should be able to bounce back to form. I’m not overly concerned with this matchup.
The 49ers have allowed Kupp in fantasy to go crazy in the last three years. Unfortunately, we did not see Kupp play the 49ers in 2023 due to injuries. In the prior two years, he posted more than 17 fantasy points in each of the last four games. Kupp was on an elite level then, so hopefully, he can keep up the production in 2024.
Seattle has been a decent matchup for Kupp over the years. He does post his highest YPR among the division foes. For fantasy, we have only seen Kupp play Seattle three times in the last three seasons. He did not play them in 2022 due to injury. He barely played Seattle once in 2023, as he would only play 18% of the snaps in that game. We’d have to look back to 2021, where Kupp posted strong games both times against Seattle. In 2024, we will be interested in seeing if Kupp can return to form.
Jaylen Waddle – MIA
| Teams | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Ctch% | FPs (3 Years) |
| Buffalo Bills | 5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 67.8 | 16.1 | 0.2 | 56.8% | 10.3 |
| New England Patriots | 6 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 69.3 | 15.4 | 0.7 | 67.5% | 13.3 |
| New York Jets | 5 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 77.6 | 12.1 | 0.2 | 91.4% | 13.4 |
Waddle has done decent against the AFC East in his career. He has posted some wild numbers we should dive into. Starting with the Bills, Waddle posted his fewest points against them. He also averaged the fewest yards and had a lousy catch rate of 56.8%. Waddle has been under ten fantasy points in three of his five games against Buffalo. In 2022, he would post great numbers as that offense clicked for fantasy. In 2021 and 2023, he would have high targets but low production. Hopefully, as the Bills defense weakens and Waddle stays healthy, he can post better numbers.
Next up is the Patriots, who Waddle has posted better numbers but his fewest targets. He is more of a home-and-away player with the Patriots. In away games, Waddle posted around ten fantasy points per game. At Hard Rock, Waddle jumps to 15.1 fantasy points per game. Playing at home in Miami gives Waddle the boost to step up versus the Patriots.
Waddle’s best production comes from the Jets, with 13.4 fantasy points per game. He manages to post with his highest yard average of 77 and a high catch rate of 91.4%. Waddle does have 15 or more fantasy points in three of five games against the Jets. Anytime Waddle has nine or more targets, he can produce against the Jets. It has helped that Waddle did not have Hill on the field in two of those three games. Waddle should continue to post great numbers as long as this offense clicks.
