• The Bucs, at this point in time, are a bottom team priced by the market as a top 5 team. They rank toward the bottom of the NFL in most offensive efficiency metrics — 20th in EPA, 25th in Drive Quality, to give a few examples — and there is little reason to suggest the Bucs will simply return to the 2020-2021 levels, given some serious structural issues. The team is dead-last in rush EPA (-0.30) but still insists on running and, as a result of scheme and separation issues, opponents are perfectly covering Tampa on 52% of passing plays. It certainly doesn’t help that Mike Evans is banged-up in this one.
• It’s also a mess on defense, where injuries are forcing the Bucs to play their 2nd string secondary unit, and they just allowed 7.5 YPC to D’Onta Foreman and Chubba Hubbard. Meanwhile, the Ravens offense — 9th in EPA — should have its full complement of weapons back, including Gus Edwards, who reinvigorated their run game last week. With the run game working and a traditionally aggressive coaching staff playing from ahead, coupled with Tampa completely incapable of mustering any offense, I think the Ravens utterly dominate in this one.
