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Braves vs Padres: Atlanta hopes Bryce Elder can help even series

Well a very weirdly-scheduled series with four games from Friday through Monday just got weirder on Saturday, as the game was rained out and moved to a Monday doubleheader. Bryce Elder was scheduled to start Saturday night, but will not start Sunday’s matchup (still game 2 of the series).

Elder has been roughly replacement-level this season and has pretty similar stats to what he had overall last season, which had high highs early in the season and low lows in the second half. On a game-to-game level this season he got blown up in LA against the Dodgers, danced through the raindrops against Cleveland and had solid starts against the Marlins and Mets. The key for Bryce is avoiding walks, because he doesn’t have the stuff to miss a lot of bats at the major league level but does maintain a high ground-ball rate. He can survive this high-contact profile as long as he avoids giving away free baserunners, but once he starts piling up walks he struggles to get away unscathed.

The Padres will counter with Yu Darvish, who is a much better pitcher than Bryce and will present a challenge for an Atlanta offense that continues to scuffle. For what it is worth, Darvish has historically struggled against Atlanta, with a 5.30 ERA over 7 matchups. Darvish throws a million types of pitches, with solid velocity, posing a fairly unique challenge to hitters relative to most pitchers. Of course, the Braves’ offense is currently in a valley right now, with a 92 wRC+ since April 13th and only 18th in the league in home runs on the season. Of course, a good bit of this is a combination of uniquely bad luck from Atlanta and changes in the ball that have increased drag, turning a lot of batted balls that might have been homers in the past into outs or doubles.

It will be worth keeping an eye on Austin Riley, as he has been dealing with a muscular issue in his side and is expected back in the lineup soon, but has been non-committal about an actual timeline. Travis d’Arnaud is also expected to be on the bench after departing Friday’s game with dizziness.

Hopefully Bryce can stay away from the walks and the offense can wake up out of their long slumber in what is roughly a coin flip matchup according to betting markets.