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The Atlanta Braves had their top prospect in action on Saturday night, with AJ Smith-Shawver putting up an interesting line against Memphis. The 21 year old seemed to be experimenting with pitch mix a little bit and it hurt him as the Redbirds clubbed three home runs. Elsewhere Adam Maier had another strong start as he has looked great in his return from a 2022 brace procedure undergone in college.
(21-23) Gwinnett Stripers 1, (23-21) Memphis RedBirds 6
- Forrest Wall, LF: 1-2, 2B, BB, .333/.462/.548
- AJ Smith-Shawver, SP: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 6.10 ERA
- Jimmy Herget, RP: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 3.18 ERA
This was a very interesting start for AJ Smith-Shawver, though the obvious takeaway is the home runs that plagued him both in this game and throughout the season. However let’s follow along with that Statcast link if you will to take a look at what Atlanta is having Smith-Shawver do because this was a particularly interesting game for pitch usage. Smith-Shawver’s fastball usage being over 50% is an active choice by the organization, they’re focusing on the development of his fastball command and feel that is really the next step for Smith-Shawver. However his secondary usage has largely featured his slider heavily, and in this game the Braves had him throw just one slider. This departure from the norm (in which his slider usage jumps over 20% against RHB) led to Smith-Shawver needing to utilize his other secondary offerings in order to force whiffs and poor contact from specifically right handed batters.
Therein, we see where Smith-Shawver’s weakness as a pitcher really is right now, and where the trouble from this start came from. Out of the eight hard hit balls against Smith-Shawver six came from right-handed hitters. All three home runs allowed were hit by right-handed batters. Smith-Shawver has had a fairly basic pitch utilization prior to this outing, with his curveball largely not playing a major role, the changeup seeing heavy usage against left-handed batters, and the slider being his go-to secondary against right handed batters. Such a significant shift in that usage, even if just for developmental purposes, is an obvious adjustment that both could benefit him in the long run but in the short term limits his options and ability to keep hitters from keying on specific pitches.
Smith-Shawver largely did not command his pitches well, and looking at the location of the pitches he did give up home runs on it’s quite clear why they were hit hard. One fastball down the heart of the plate, one changeup left on the top edge of the zone, and one curveball left on the top edge of the zone. He’s not going to be able to get away with that location at this level, but when the pitches were located properly they achieved some level of good result. RedBirds batters whiffed on half of their swings against the changeup, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that six of those seven whiffs came from left-handed batters. His curveball produced two whiffs on five swings and his fastball eight whiffs on 25 swings. Both curveball whiffs came from right-handed Luken Baker, who also tagged that hanging curveball for a home run, and three of the eight fastball whiffs came from right-handed batters. All-in-all without the use of his slider there is a clear disadvantage for Smith-Shawver that was showcased in this game, though his improvement against left-handed hitters is really one of his key focuses as they crushed him at the major league level in 2023.
(15-23) Mississippi Braves 2, (18-20) Biloxi Shuckers 5
- Nacho Alvarez, SS: 1-4, .262/.379/.320
- Drake Baldwin, C: 1-4, .223/.289/.298
- Justin Dean, CF: 1-4, BB, .253/.348/.368
- Luis De Avila, SP: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 5.73 ERA
Mississippi had an interesting challenge against Jacob Misiorowski in this game, a top pitching prospect in all of baseball who tends for force high strikeout rates but struggles with walks. Largely though the Braves were able to keep Misiorowski from dominating at bats, forcing him out in the fourth inning and only striking out thrice. The experience of a lot of these Mississippi hitters showed as they were able to coax five walks against him, but their inability to make solid contact ensured that despite their frequent opportunity they only came away with one run off before chasing him from the game. Even that was just an unearned run, as a throwing error on a Justin Dean infield single allowed a run to score.
Biloxi did not have that same problem against Luis De Avila. De Avila’s regression in strike-throwing, specifically his tendency for stretches where he completely loses a feel for the zone, has been crippling for him this season. In this outing he got hit fairly hard in the early going, but at the very least kept the ball around the zone. That is until the fourth when he had to leave the game after issuing three straight walks. De Avila simply doesn’t miss enough bats to be able to get away with control issues to this level, and it’s an interesting and unfortunate regression for him after last year seeming to turn a corner and at least find the edges of the zone at a reasonable rate. The stretches of poor control have always been there and De Avila’s walk rate hasn’t gone up much on a per batter basis with just a one percentage point increase. What has been concerning is the tendency to find the middle of the zone, and hitters this year are making contact at a far higher rate than in year’s past with a dip in strikeout rate all the way to 16.6%. De Avila does fortunately tend towards weak ground contact, which is a saving grace for him overall, but will have to work out of the middle of the zone to really make a run for Triple-A and beyond.
(19-16) Rome Emperors 3, (15-21) Asheville Tourists 0
SUSPENDED
- EJ Exposito, DH: 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, .320/.385/.691
- Sabin Ceballos, 3B: 1-2, .255/.362/.327
- Ambioris Tavarez, SS: 1-2, BB, .180/.289/.288
- Jhancarlos Lara, SP: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1.17 ERA
This week in Asheville has sucked. Not only can we not watch the games but weather has played a major factor. Jhancarlos Lara was pushed back a day due to a rain out yesterday, and then today threw just seven pitches before the game was suspended due to rain.
(16-19) Augusta GreenJackets 7, (17-19) Salem Red Sox 5
- Jace Grady, RF: 2-5, 2B, 3 RBI, .289/.374/.438
- Luis Sanchez, 2B: 1-3, BB, 2 RBI, .252/.328/.293
- Drew Compton, 1B: 3-3, 2B, RBI, .306/.438/.441
- Adam Maier: RP: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 3.44 ERA
As much as I liked Adam Maier prior to the season, I did not expect what we’re seeing from him. Maier took some time to get going for the GreenJackets, but once he shook off the rust and found his feel for location he has been a force for Augusta in the month of May. Across 17 innings Maier has yet to allow a walk this month with a strikeout rate of 29%. He’s doing so efficiently, too, needing just 71 pitches to get through his six innings Saturday. For Maier it’s getting close to the point that it’s really hard to find meaningful evaluation because he’s just so much better than the hitters he is facing. The movement on all of his pitches is so significant that Single-A hitters simply aren’t prepared to handle it on any consistent basis, and while the Braves are going to take their time in Maier’s development it’s probably getting close to the point that a trip to Rome is in order. He’s simply too well-polished with his location and secondaries to face any sort of challenge at this level now that he’s been able to really get back into game action for the first time in a couple of years.
It’s been a surprising struggle for Drew Compton this month, but for the first time since early May he put up a multi-hit game with his 3-3 evening. Compton’s performance certainly was encouraging, but he wasn’t particularly impactful on the final score as most of the offensive contribution came from leadoff man Jace Grady. Grady was critical in both of Augusta’s crooked innings, reaching base in the third inning and scoring a run and then clearing the bases on a sixth inning double. I want to go back to Robert Gonzalez a bit here, I know I talk about him quite a bit, but I think it’s important to provide a retraction on an evaluation I gave earlier in the season. I mentioned feeling like Gonzalez lacked the top end speed for center field long term, though it seems I was not actually judging him running at top speed. Gonzalez put down a 3.7 home-to-first the other night on his seventh inning single, which is top-of-the-scale speed, and I thought it important to correct my previous statements here after rewatching some footage and seeing some of the times Gonzalez puts up on the basepaths when he is actually sprinting.
(2-9) FCL Braves 9, (6-4) FCL Rays 7
- Douglas Glod, CF:: 1-3, 3B, 2 BB, 2 RBI, .179/.324/.250
- John Gil, SS: 1-3, 2 BB, .154/.267/.154
- Jeremy Reyes, SP: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 1.42 ERA
Two wins in three days for the FCL Braves, and maybe finally they will start to get on a roll as the offense seems to be coming around quite well. They’re still last in the league at basically everything, but they’re getting closer to not being last and that is somewhat an accomplishment. Particularly it’s nice to see a big afternoon from Douglas Glod, who had hit a bit of a rut with nine strikeouts in his prior four games. His first inning single gave the Braves a lead they would never relent as they added on runs in the middle innings to pad things for Jeremy Reyes and the Braves staff. Reyes had his worst game of the season with three walks and only one strikeout, though that also comes with seven ground ball outs and he picked off two runners. Reyes is sitting on a 1.42 ERA, and no FCL Braves pitcher 18 years or younger has pitched 10+ innings with an ERA below 2 since the 2016 draft class produced four such arms.
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