After an improbable, thrilling win to cap off their series in Miami, the Braves will head to Houston to continue their road trip and begin an all-Texas week that will see them head home to host the Rangers over the weekend. This series will mark the first time the Braves set foot in Houston since clinching their first championship in 26 years in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series.
While the Braves have played well to start 2024 despite some setbacks, the same can’t be said of the Astros, who started the year as favorites in a tough AL West, but have been mired in a nightmare of an April so far. They were swept by the Yankees at home to open the season, and then went 4-3 over their next seven games, including a split of a four-game set against the Rangers, who ended their 2023 season by beating them in the ALCS. They were then swept by the Royals, getting outscored 28-8 in the process, before rebounding by taking a series from the Rangers at home. Even with Sunday’s victory, they’re dead last in the AL West at this point with a 6-11 record; while BaseRuns suggests they should’ve been 9-7 coming into Sunday’s game, that’s probably little consolation to a team that now has to clamber back up to the top of the standings.
Like a lot of teams in the early going, the Astros are injury-plagued, especially pitching-wise. Justin Verlander (shoulder, could be back this week), Framber Valdez (elbow, absence may be short term), and Jose Urquidy (forearm, absence may be short term) are all missing in action right now, while Luis Garcia went down with Tommy John Surgery last May. As a result, guys like Ronel Blanco (he of the 2024 no-hitter), J.P. France, and Spencer Arighetti have been pressed into serious service early, and the Astros currently have a fairly silly 136 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 129 xFIP- for their rotation.
Offensively, the Astros have seemingly been cursed by sequencing — they’re 13th in runs scored, but first in wRC+ (ahead of the Braves). Jose Altuve is on absolute fire, including a two-homer game on Sunday, and has a 242 wRC+ at this point; he’s currently second to Mookie Betts for the MLB fWAR lead. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, and Victor Caratini have all also killed it offensively — though Jose Abreu is mired in yet another awful start and looks like he might be an albatross for this ballclub yet again.
Monday, April 15, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Darius Vines (Triple-A: 2 GS, 12 IP, 3.75 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 4.51 xFIP)
The Braves announced that Vines would draw the start on Monday after Sunday’s come-from-behind victory. Vines was recalled earlier in the week in place of Allan Winans, who was smacked around by the Mets. It remains to be seen whether this is a tryout for Vines before the Braves pivot to a different and/or longer-term option, but he’ll have his work cut out for him trying to survive against the Houston offense.
Vines put together a 90 ERA-, 115 FIP-, and 127 xFIP- in 20 1⁄3 innings spanning two starts and three relief appearances down the stretch last year in his debut season. He doesn’t really have the stuff to overpower MLB hitters, so he’s going to need his defense, and perhaps the Baseball Gods, to help him out in Houston on Monday.
Spencer Arrighetti (1 GS, 3.0 IP, 536 ERA-, 103 FIP-, 175 xFIP-).
Right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, the team’s number three prospect per Baseball America, will kick off the series opposite Vines. He struggled in his major league debut against the Royals, with a 3/3 K/BB ratio in a blowout loss in which he hit the showers after just three innings. Arrighetti also walked a ton of guys in his two Triple-A starts prior to his promotion.
This game could be a nasty slugfest.
Tuesday, April 16, 8:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast, TBS)
Reynaldo Lopez (2 GS, 12.0 IP, 17 ERA-, 68 FIP-, 106 xFIP-)
Reynaldo Lopez will make his third start of the season in Tuesday’s game. He’s been somewhat of a pleasant surprise for the Braves so far, as he’s only been charged with a single run over his first 12 innings. With that said, he’s been fairly walk-heavy in the early going without racking up huge strikeout totals, and that’ll need to improve because chances are his teeny-tiny strand rate and zero percent HR/FB rate won’t stay that low forever.
With Spencer Strider lost for the season, Lopez has instantly become an even more important part of the rotation. He held the Mets in check in his last start, allowing three hits and three walks to go along with six strikeouts in six innings. Pitching in the American League for most of his career, Lopez has seen a fair bit of the Astros (11 games, 20 2⁄3 innings) and hasn’t exactly thrived, with a 4.25 FIP and 5.86 xFIP — though those numbers are heavily skewed by the Astros blasting him in two 2018 starts.
Hunter Brown (3 GS, 7 2⁄3 IP, 420 ERA-, 181 FIP-, 136 xFIP-)
Righty Hunter Brown will get the nod in Tuesday’s game and will be looking to right the ship after two straight rough outings. He was charged with eight hits and five runs in three innings, while posting a 3/4 K/BB ratio against the Rangers two starts ago. He then hit rock bottom in his last start, getting charged 11 hits and nine runs while retiring just two hitters against Kansas City. He allowed a homer in both of those outings.
Brown’s 2023 was a particularly strange season, as he had a 120 ERA-, 103 FIP-, an xERA a bit below his FIP, and a stellar xFIP- of just 82. In other words, he was a peripherals master across 155 2⁄3 innings, but suffered from an insanely high HR/FB rate and low strand rate and got BABIPed. So far in 2024, his cutter has completely changed its shape and he’s thrown way more splitters than before), but the issues he’s having go beyond anything particularly simple — he’s just been abominable since a perfectly fine season debut against the Yankees.
Brown made a start during last year’s sweep of the Braves by the Astros in Atlanta and was charged with four runs in 4 2⁄3 innings despite a 7/2 K/BB ratio — basically the story of his season, but-for the surprising goose egg of homers allowed.
Wednesday, April 17, 2:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Max Fried (3 GS, 11 1⁄3 IP, 201 ERA-, 105 FIP-, 94 xFIP-)
After two nightmarish first innings in his first two starts, Fried was more of his vintage self in his last outing, as he baffled the Marlins over 6 1⁄3 innings in one of the better starting pitching efforts the Braves have had this season. As the top dog in the rotation with Spencer Strider shelved, the Braves will need Fried to do what he’s done over his past few seasons.
This will be Fried’s second start against the Astros since shutting them down in the decisive Game 6 of the 2021 World Series. He had a 5/3 K/BB ratio in 6 2⁄3 scoreless frames against them last April, but the bullpen gave up five unanswered runs in an eventual loss.
J.P. France (3 GS, 15 1⁄3 IP, 210 ERA-, 99 FIP-, 138 xFIP-)
France is another Houston pitcher that comes in with some ugly numbers, and is vaguely similar to Arrighetti in that he’s been ineffective but not exactly homer-prone. France was charged with three runs and pitched into the sixth inning in each of his first two starts this season, but then got blasted in his last outing against the Rangers, with a 3/4 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed to go with an eight-run docket in four innings of work.
As a junkballer without a particularly deadly fastball, he’ll have to keep the Braves off balance with his other offerings to prevent problems.
